Vägar mot ett uthålligt energisystem i Europa

Transcription

1 Vägar mot ett uthålligt energisystem i Europa Filip Johnsson Institutionen för Energi och Miljö Chalmers Göteborg, Sweden Energisessionen 2008, 7/2, 2008

2

3 I = P A T P Population Impact on Environment A Affluence T Technology CO 2 = f(p GDP T) Decouple impact from economic growth or limit growth?

4 Limit global temperature increase to 2ºC: 50 to 85% global reduction in CO 2 emissions until 2050, (almost) not allowing for any peak (stop increase now) and start to reduce at 2015 at latest! IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group 3 (May 2007)

5 Alternatives towards Sustainable Energy Systems -General To use less energy Population Technology Affluence and life style Efficiency measures To shift fuel Renewable energy We We need need all! all! Nuclear Coal to gas To Capture and Store CO 2 From large point sources (power plants, industry, hydrogen from fossil fuels) Carbon sequestration (Land Use Change and Forestation- LUCF)

6 But, it is important to remember that.

7 We have a system already in place

8 The system includes fuel supply infrastructure etc

9 Fuel Supply infrastructure Example Natural Gas Infrastructure (only pipelines to Europe) cf Kjärstad, J., Johnsson, F., Prospects of the European gas market Energy Policy 35, 2007, pp

10 .and not only environment in focus Chalmers University of Technology

11 Large investments in the energy sector over the coming decades (for EU) Battle Climate Change increase share of renewables, 20% by 2020 increase energy efficiency, 20% by 2020 reduce CO2 emissions, 20% by 2020 (possibly 30% by 2020) limit global temperature increase to 2ºC by 2050 (60 to 80% reduction by 2050 in developed economies such as EU, 50% globally) Maintain Security of Supply e.g. EU has significant and growing dependency on natural gas Ensure Competitiveness

12 Focus on technologies which fits into the present energy system - we must start to change now!

13 Kraftproduktion Chalmers University of Technology

14 Net capacity of operating and planned thermal power plants in EU-25 distributed by fuel and age RES not included GWe (Nuclear) 0.6 (Oil) 2.6 (Lignite) 2.5 (Coal) 1.6 (Nuclear) 0.1 (Oil) 2.4 (Lignite) > 30 years years years 0-10 years Construction Planned Natural gas Coal incl peat Lignite Oil Nuclear Kjärstad, J., Johnsson, F., The European power plant infrastructure Presentation of the Chalmers energy infrastructure database with applications, Energy Policy 35, 2007, pp

15 Power generation capacity - Italy (Hydro) (Bio) 1,2 1,7 1, ,7 GWe 15 30,3 2, ,4 21,1 5,5 1,2 3,6 0,5 1,3 2,4 3,3 4,3 5,9 5,5 2,8 > 30 years years years 0-10 years Construction Planned Natural gas Coal Oil Wind Bio/Waste Hydro

16 Distribution Planned Plants by fuel Europe (same color code as previous slide, includes bio, source: Chalmers PP db) Crossed purple dots: CCGT s on line Jan, 2007 (36 GW) Northern gas zone: Increasing demand, declining product. Southern gas zone: Increasing demand Norway and North Africa competitive edge on key growth markets cf Kjärstad, J., Johnsson, F., Prospects of the European gas market Energy Policy 35, 2007, pp

17 Power generation capacity - Germany (Hydro) 0.2 (Bio) (Bio) 5,6 0.2 (Bio) 2,2 1.1 (Hydro) 0.8 (Bio) 28,4 GWe 30 3,1 1,2 13,8 0.2 (Hydro) 20 8,4 0,8 0.2 (Bio) 1.1 (Wind) 17,3 1,2 3,7 9,8 5,4 0,9 13, ,3 2,1 0.4 (Oil) 5,6 0 8,5 3,8 6,0 1,9 1,4 6,2 0.1 (Bio) 2,1 2,4 7,6 > 30 years years years 0-10 years Construction Planned Natural gas Coal Lignite Oil Nuclear Wind Bio/Waste Hydro Kjärstad, J., Johnsson, F., The European power plant infrastructure Presentation of the Chalmers energy infrastructure database with applications, Energy Policy 35, 2007, pp

18 1200 Chalmers University of Technology The challenge Example Germany Phase out of fossil and nuclear generation in Germany together with estimated maximum realistic deployment of renewables (RES) We must boost energy efficiency measures! 800 HIGH TWh 600? MED Existing system LOW Max RES Hard Coal Lignite Oil Gas Nuclear Wind Hydro Biomass Other RES Others MOD MED BAU Kjärstad, J., Johnsson, F., The European power plant infrastructure Presentation of the Chalmers energy infrastructure database with applications, Energy Policy 35, 2007, pp

19 RES and energy efficiency measures will most likely not to be sufficient to meet 2050 emission targets We need bridging technologies such as Nuclear (life time extensions + new installations) Fossil with CO2 capture Co-firing biomass with coal Fuel shift coal to gas (but feasible?) CHP with waste as fuel (increased use of DH) Polygeneration schemes (linking transportation and power generation sector, e.g. plug-in hybrid vehicles) A bridging technology/measure is one which can be integrated into present energy infrastructure and which does not lead to lock-in effects can be implemented in near future

20 Exempel på bridging technologies - CCS(CO2 Capture and Storage) - Integrerad biomassaförgasning Bägge studeras på Chalmers

21 CO 2 Capture, Transport & Storage (CCS)

22 Storage sites by reservoir type and coal and lignite fuelled power plants within EU-25 plus Norway Blue = oil fields Red = gas fields Crossed grey = aquifers Black = coal plants Brown = lignite plants

23 FI FI FI TI TI FI TI PIC FI SC FI Chalmers University of Technology Capture - Development (example oxyfuel) Dry, pressurized flue gas as carrier gas Coal from pneumatic feed system Coal feed Direct O2 injection Pilot burner Primary/secondary register air/o2/co2 fan mixing point O2/flue gas Air inlet pre-heater SC Cylindrical furnace Measurement ports R1, R2...R7 Wet flue gas recycle Dry flue gas recycle Cooling tube 1/ mm 800 mm Flue gas cooler Fabric Filter TC TC Flue gas condenser Stack gas C3 H 8 O2 Dry, pressurized flue gas for dust control and fuel carrier gas Cooling water Lab scale (IVD 10 kw) Basic research Small pilot (Chalmers 100 kw) Basic research Pilot/Demo (Vattenfall( 30 MW) 2008, Testing of new products Demo/full scale ( ?) 2020?) Early market introduction

24 Integration of biomass gasification on existing boiler infrastructure (Chalmers) Heat, Electricity, Steam Heat, Electricity, Steam Flue gas Flue gas Bio Product Gas Fuel Hot bed material Fuel Hot bed material Biomass Air Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) Air Fluidization gas (Steam or Bio Producer Gas or ) New concept

25 Exempel på möjliga utvecklingsvägar för kraftproduktion

26 Example of Pathway for European Power generation 60% CO2 reduction by 2050 (compared to 1990) TWh] Electricity generation [TWh] [ [TWh Black solid areas - present energy infrastructure Marginal cost ranging from 20 /tonco2 in 2010 to 60 /tonco2 in 2050 Kärnkraft påp nuvarande nivå förutom Tyskland och Belgien där d r den fasas ut Hard coal CCS New Gas Gas Lignite CCS Hard coal New Hard coal New Biomass & waste Lignite New Wind 1000 Nuclear Present oil, peat, wind, biomass & waste New Nuclear Hydro replacements Hydro Year Odenberger, M., Kjärstad, J., Johnsson, F., Ramp up of CO2 Capture and Storage within Europe, Submitted

27 Chalmers University of Technology German electricity generation 73% Reduction in CO 2 by 2050, relative to 1990 (common 60% cap gives trade) Kärnkraft fasas ut i enlighet med avvecklingsbeslut Hard coal with CCS 500 Wind Gas New Gas 400 Hard coal Lignite with CCS Lignite New Hard coal New Biomass & Waste 100 Nuclear New Wind power Hydro Replacements Hydro Contribution from present system Hydro replacements New wind power New biomass & waste New hard coal New gas New lignite with CCS New hard coal with CCS

28 Nordic electricity generation CO 2 emissions down from 70 Mt to 63 Mt (common 60% cap) Electricity generation [TWh] Kärnkraft fasas ut i enlighet med nuvarande drifttillstånd Biomas 400 Win Gas 300 Hard coal New Gas Hard coal with CCS New Hard coal New Biomass & Waste New Wind power Nuclear 200 Hydro Replacements 100 Hydro 2003 Contribution 2008 from present system 2013 Hydro replacements others 2028 (small scale hydro) New wind power New biomass and waste New hard coal New gas New hard coal with CCS

29 Summering Det måste till en kostnad för att släppa ut koldioxid - allt annat ger marginella effekter i förhållande till utsläppsmål ( 30 /tonco 2 tillräckligt på sikt, avseende kraftproduktion) Vi behöver en mängd tekniker och åtgärder för att klara klimatåtaganden inklusive energieffektivisering Inverkan av befintligt system måste beaktas i analysen Vi behöver tekniker som kan brygga över mot ett uthålligt system (Sameldning av biomassa, CCS, Plug-in hybrider, effektivisering, etc) Tillräckligt antal sites för centraliserad kraftproduktion CCS inverkar positivt på Security of Supply minskat naturgaberoende för Europa Vad händer fram till 2020? Fortsatt ökat naturgasberoende i EU? Vad händer om CCS inte kommer till stånd?