Economics of solar power & the role of large PV power plants

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1 Economics of solar power & the role of large PV power plants Ruggero Schleicher- Tappeser, sustainable strategies Athens, October 8,

2 OVERVIEW Strong drivers for change Large scale photovoltaic power plants Challenges for the electricity system 2

3 Poli9cs wants renewable energies Binding EU target for 2020: 20% of all energy from renewable sources à renewable share in power producjon must be higher Denmark: : 50% wind power : power and heat completely renewable Greece: : domesjc target: 20% EE of all energy Germany: - Reduce CO2 emissions by 80-95% unjl 2050 Lead scenario 2011: structure of gross power producjon

4 Breakthrough of ICT and semiconductor technologies à deep structural change PV: electricity producjon from solar radiajon with semiconductors No moving parts No fuel, no operajonal costs Mass producjon of standardised elements High scalability, distributed applicajon possible Semiconductor power electronics Highly efficient converters, transformers Remote control of electrical parameters New opjons for DC applicajons and systems ICT Complex control opjons with cheap distributed intelligence MulJ- level systems Flexible configurajon, involvement of a variety of actors Breakthrough of storage technologies??? tappeser.eu 4

5 PV is a disrup9ve, extremely scalable technology: mass produc9on of small, standardised cells

6 Rapidly decreasing Costs: The historical learning curve of PV doubling of the volume à cost reducjon 22% tappeser.eu EPIA 6

7 Innova9ons in PV development: large variety guarantees further cost reduc9ons Silicon, improvement c- Si cells Thin film: Si, CIGS, CdS, MulJ- juncjon, concentrator cells Organic cells Dye sensijsed cells Cells Ø Higher efficiency Ø Lower produc9on costs Ø New applica9on fields Ø INTEGRATION mechanical integra9on electrical integra9on Carrying materials, module design Concentrators, tracker systems BIPV: integrajon in buildings, construcjon elements in appliances, in vehicles Free space, traffic areas, roofing Storage technologies (stajonary, mobile, off- grid, grid) Intelligent inverters System design Hybrid systems, mini- grids Grid concepts, grid steering RegulaJon, markets tappeser.eu 7

8 Sun and wind will dominate biomass requires too much surface electricity photovoltaics: < 10 m²/mwh/yr wind : < 10 m²/mwh/yr surface: (3 x rotor diameter)² Biomass (corn) > 200 m²/mwh/yr Where applicable, CSP needs about the same surface as PV factor transport electric car with PV convenjonal car with biofuel factor 250 tappeser.eu 8

9 Business and government grappling with 5 to 10 9mes shorter innova9on cycles à More rapid build- up of capacijes (e.g. Dec in Germany: 3,5 GW PV) à More rapid decrease of costs à More rapid transformajon of the electricity sector DramaJc accelerajon compared to tradijonal energy technologies nuclear power plant coal power plant installajon wind park factory wind turbines construcjon useful life decommissioning installajon PV factory PV cells/modules years tappeser.eu 9

10 Ownership of renewable power genera9on in Germany 2012 Classical ujlijes have only a small share in renewable electricity generajon New actors have other decision criteria AcceleraJon of the development overburdens all involved other ujlijes, 3,50% intnat. ujlijes, 2,20% contracjng comp., 0,20% regional ujlijes, 1,30% commerce, 14,40% project companies, 13,80% Total 72,9 GW others, 1% banks / funds, 12,50% private persons, 34,90% farmers, 11,20% "large 4" ujlijes, 4,90% tappeser.eu 10

11 OVERVIEW Strong drivers for change Large scale photovoltaic power plants Challenges for the electricity system 11

12 Standardised 3 MW Block Belectric 53 MW juwi Carport, 5,9 MW, Phoenix tappeser.eu 12

13 Development of investment costs in Germany /kw peak 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00-0,32 0,26 0,20 0,24 2,98 0,23 0,21 0,18 0,25 1,63 0,15 0,14 0,11 0,09 0, Assembling Inverter Cables Rack Modules Data: Bächler (2013), PV- magazine tappeser.eu 13

14 Cost of Ownership over 20 years in Germany 7,00 /kw peak 6,00 0,07 5,00 4,00 1,82 0,08 Insurance land lease Inverter Service 3,00 2,00 3,64 1,05 0,25 O&M Interests Investment 1,00 2,10 0,10 0, Data: Bächler (2013), PV- magazine tappeser.eu 14

15 Greece has the advantage of strong solar radia9on tappeser.eu 15

16 Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) strongly depends on interest rate ct / kwh Greek electricity tariff for industry: Frankfurt, lifejme 20 years 12,5 13,2 7,8 8,3 6,8 7,3 14, ,5 9,7 9,2 8,7 7,8 8,4 8,9 16,4 Athens, lifejme 20 years 10,2 9,5 Athens, lifejme 30 years 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% average cost of capital Δ= 31% Δ= 40% assumpjon: present costs in Germany CAPEX 1000 / kw peak OPEX 41 / kw peak /a tappeser.eu 16

17 Building the value chain takes 9me Research insjtutes Manufacturers of producjon plants Banks and financing companies Manufacturers silicon wafers, cells modules Traders System integrators, EPC contractors cratsmen in the construcjon business operajng company internajonal internajonal can be local internajonal internajonal can be local can be local can be local local can be local smaller installajons more opportunijes for local added value tappeser.eu 17

18 OVERVIEW Strong drivers for change Large scale photovoltaic power plants Challenges for the electricity system 18

19 Challenge 1 fluctua9ng genera9on Electricity genera9on in Germany 2012 PV Wind tappeser.eu Burger FhG ISE,

20 Fluctua9on requires more flexibility: four basic op9ons GW Flexible generajon flexible fuel- based plants curtailment of wind and solar 2. Increased exchange grid expansion on all levels Exchange Generation Flexibility conven.onal Storage Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So 3. Power storage requires cheaper storage in proximity of generajon or consumpjon Flexibility to be developed Load 4. Demand side management requires incenjves and learning Lowest system level tappeser.eu 20

21 Challenge 2 distributed genera9on From centralised to distributed genera9on: the old system Genera.on Consump.on HöS Low grid costs HS MS NS Low tension High grid costs Central genera9on, central balancing 21

22 From centralised to distributed genera9on: new genera9on paaern old logic? Genera.on Consump.on HöS Net flow Exchange for balancing HS MS NS Distributed genera9on, centralised balancing ParJally reversed flows Reduced net flows Balancing requires strong exchange between levels 22

23 From centralised to distributed genera9on: ac9ve distribu9on grids Genera.on Consump.on HöS Higher grid costs??? HS MS Lower grid costs??? NS Distributed genera9on, balancing on all levels AcJve balancing on lower levels can significantly reduce the need for exchange This, however, requires new frame condijons 23

24 Challenge 3 Self- Supply Power from the roof cheaper than from the grid ct ,8 40,6 49,21 37,96 Average household tariff (3000 kwh/a) (incl. VAT) 46,75 35,49 43,1 31,94 Feed- in- tariff in Germany 28,74 21,11 Tariff for commerce (100 MWh/a) Munich (without VAT) Vaxenfall Berlin < 30 kw > 100 kw < 1MW 15,9 ct 11,0 ct - 40% tappeser.eu 24

25 Boom in self- supply expected Feed- in tariffs have been strongly reduced in most European countries New business models necessary >40% cost advantage with self supply is interesjng. Similar situajon in other countries with high electricity prices Energy management allows to increase own consumpjon All solar companies are working on self- supply business models for private homes for small businesses for industry In Germany uncertainty about future regulatory framework tappeser.eu 25

26 Electricity prices in Europe 2013 Households Industry DK DE DK FR UK GR ES IT GR UK ES IT DE FR tappeser.eu 26

27 Power is needed also when the sun does not shine PV generajon ConsumpJon self- supply Shieing loads into sunshine hours Private househould cloudless summer day, 4 persons, PV system 5 kw p Without addijonal measures self- supply only ca. 30% Commerce: ConsumpJon mainly during sunshine hours Storing electricity Shiting loads Coupling with heat and mobility markets Flexibility of user system increases massively tappeser.eu SMA 27

28 Top- down supply system (central control) Mul9- level exchange system (subsidiarity, shared responsibility) load generation storage balancing load generation storage balancing nuclear coal lignite hydro & storage generation International exchange offshore wind hydro & storage industry load storage industry wind PV biogas storage industry industry wind PV biogas storage generation PV PV PV household commerce services household commerce services consumers prosumers load storage tappeser.eu 28

29 Thank you! Ruggero Schleicher- Tappeser sustainable strategies Berlin, Germany tappeser.eu tappeser.eu

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