Business Opportunities in the Mexican PV market. September 2013 Nikolai Dobrott, Managing Partner

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1 Business Opportunities in the Mexican PV market September 2013 Nikolai Dobrott, Managing Partner

2 Agenda. Apricum The Cleantech Advisory The global solar market Solar market and opportunities in Mexico 2

3 Apricum The Cleantech Advisory Apricum expertise in Cleantech and solar energy in particular. Apricum at a glance Business Industry focus Team Clients Services (selected) Locations Strategy consulting and transaction advisory services Cleantech > 40 Cleantech experts with decadelong industry experience Companies, investors and public institutions Strategy development (e.g., value chain, go-to-market, marketing) Feasibility analysis, business plan design Partner search (MOU, JV) Investor/target search Due diligence (comm., technical) HQ in Berlin, Germany Representative offices in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UK and USA 3

4 Apricum The Cleantech Advisory Apricum has advised a variety of clients targeting to enter new markets. Selected recent references 4

5 Apricum The Cleantech Advisory Apricum offers an integrated suite of growth-oriented services for companies and investors. Apricum service portfolio Strategy consulting Transaction advisory services Portfolio/value chain Go-to-market Sell-side search Buy-side search Value chain screening Feasibility analysis Business plan design Corporate portfolio strategy Market analysis and selection Localized business model design Partner search Implementation support Investors Acquirers License takers Target identification Technology scouting R&D Marketing & sales Due diligence Technology and materials assessment R&D roadmap development Customer preferences and requirements analysis Product positioning Value modeling and pricing strategy Market/commercial Technical Business development support 5

6 Agenda. Apricum The Cleantech Advisory The global solar market Solar market and opportunities in Mexico 6

7 The global solar market Apricum forecasts that demand for PV capacity will continue to dominate over CSP. Projected global demand solar (annual installations) [GW] CSP PV CAGR % Long-term market growth will be driven by markets with high demand for electricity and increasing pressure to diversify the power generation from fossil due to climate change and rising fuel prices Short-term market development is dependent on the policy support from governments Source: Apricum solar market model Q3/2013, center scenario Price development will define the penetration level in global electricity generation in mid-long term China, India and USA will be the three largest market in 2020 accounting for more than one third of the demand 7

8 The global solar market The emerging markets, among them LATAM, will gain significant share on the future PV world map. Global PV demand: market share by region (annual installations) Europe North America 67% 24% 9% 16% China MENA 10% 27% 0% 3% Asia Pacific Latin America 0% 2% Southern Africa 0% 1% India 2% 8% % 19% Source: Apricum PV market model Q3/2013, center scenario. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding errors 8

9 Agenda. Apricum The Cleantech Advisory The global solar market Solar market and opportunities in Mexico 9

10 Two directional decisions will re-shape Mexico s electricity sector and open opportunities for renewable energy. Electricity sector dynamics in Mexico Electricity generation mix Mexico 2012 Renewable Energy target 2024 Renewables Hydro 3% 12% Nuclear 3% 24% Oil derivatives Governmental decision¹ to provide 35% of electricity generation from non-fossil sources until 2024 Goal to cut GHG emissions by 50% until 2050 Increased private sector participation Coal 10% Total 226 TWh Recent government initiative to open publicly dominated energy sector for private sector participation Electricity generation could increasingly be transferred to private IPPs 48% Natural gas Trend to reduce oil in generation mix Opportunity cost of oil used for electricity generation Source: Sener, IEA Key energy statistics 2012, Apricum analysis ¹ passed by Calderon govt., now replaced by Nieto administration 10

11 Mexico has abundant solar resources to cater to a growing need for power generation. Overview solar opportunities in Mexico Population Electricity consumption MW solar 115 million ~ 230 TWh MW Baja California Chihuahua Mexico City Intensive solar radiation in Northern and Central Mexico and Western costal regions, Baja California above 6.5 kwh/m²*d Mexican Gulf coast has slightly less total insolation, still significantly higher than in European countries Source: NREL, SENER, World Bank, Apricum analysis 11

12 Commercial and residential installations can offset high electricity cost, utility scale driven by govt. demand. Drivers and constraints for PV market segments in Mexico PV market segment Drivers Constraints Utility (>500 kw) Commercial/ industrial (<500 kw) Residential (<30 kw) Growing demand for electricity Goal to increase share on nonfossil generation Dedicated tenders for < 30 MW projects Private PPAs Self-generation scheme Ability to net meter Tax breaks, accel. depreciation High grid electricity price High grid prices for DAC consumers Ability to net meter Tax incentives Strong public domination, required permissions, adm. procedures Low target prices for CFE small production capacities Competition from other renewables Restricted commercialization opportunities Downstream capacities Long timeframe of investment Lack of awareness Low standard grid electricity prices 12

13 Solar value chain: numerous opportunities but which to choose? Solar value chain 13

14 For new entrants, barriers are lower the further downstream the business is positioned. Silicon PV value chain upstream downstream Metallurgicalsilicon Polysilicon Ingot/ wafer Cell Module System integration Installation Operation No. of players few (~10) numerous (>100) many (>>1000) CAPEX very high (>USD 500 M) high (>USD 30 M) very low Dependent on business model Technological complexity very high moderate low Markets served global regional local Barriers of entry 14

15 Two exemplary business opportunities: module assembly and integrated system integration/installation. Silicon PV value chain upstream downstream Metallurgicalsilicon Polysilicon Ingot/ wafer Cell Module System integration Installation Operation No. of players few (~10) numerous (>100) many (>>1000) CAPEX very high (>USD 500 M) high (>USD 30 M) very low Dependent on business model Technological complexity very high moderate low Markets served global regional local Barriers of entry 15

16 Example 1 module assembly: Contract manufacturing to cater to regional markets in US and LATAM. Exemplary business opportunity: assembly of crystalline silicon based PV modules Front glass Encapsulant Frame Cells Back sheet Junction box Source module components (see picture), design and assemble modules Target clients: EPC contractors and system integrators in Mexico, USA and Rest of Latin America Competitive advantages: proximity to domestic/ regional markets, labor rates Cell suppliers from Asia can avoid potential customs and logistic cost with a local contract manufacturer Minimum recommended size: 150 MW, which would require an investment of USD ~30 million 16

17 Example 2 system integration and installation: Initial target commercial power consumers. Exemplary business opportunity: integration and installation of PV system for commercial/industrial segment Fictitious case: Shopping mall Sales area: 5,000 m² Location: Guadalajara region Annual power consumption: 2 MWh Power price of 21 Mexican pesos/kwh, continuously increasing A 499 kw PV system can cover 30% of the power consumed Business opportunity: High, continuously increasing power price Design and install PV systems that target self-consumption Target clients: Shopping malls, supermarkets, manufacturing facilities 17

18 Example 2 system integration and installation: Feasible business case if PV LCOE is in the range of USDc/kWh. Grid vs. PV electricity prices USD/W Solar LCOE range Feasible business case for customers from small commercial segment service segment to follow soon Main drivers for PV LCOE System cost Irradiation Financing cost Installation cost Large enterprise Medium enterprise Services Commercial Source: NREL, SENER, Apricum analysis, assuming 7% discount rate and system prices between 2.4 and 2.7 USD/Wp, 25 years lifetime 18

19 Apricum develops attractive business models and convincing business plans for our clients. Pricing Cost Local content Timing Financing Competition Need for partner Technology Target clients Business model development by Apricum Most attractive business model Convincing business plan Most suitable partner 19

20 Apricum follows a systematic five-phase approach for developing and implementing a solar strategy. Apricum solar strategy development support with indicative timeline Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3* Phase 4 Phase 5 Opportunity screening Business model design Partner search Business plan & contract closing Implementation Identification of the most attractive business opportunities Commercial, technical and financial study resulting in business model & overall strategy Partner selection and partnership negotiations Development of resource and finance plan, full partnership/tran saction agreement Launch and ramp-up of business Business cases Business model Partner(s), MOU Business plan Ready for business ~4 weeks ~4 weeks ~10 weeks ~6 weeks as needed *) If business can be implement without partner, this phase is not applicable 20

21 Apricum GmbH Spittelmarkt Berlin Germany T F

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