Ernst Rauch Munich Re 29 June 2010

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1 WORKSHOP A: REDUCING RISKS OF GREEN INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Riskmanagement for Green Investments BMU-KfW Conference 29 June 2010, Berlin Ernst Rauch Head Corporate Climate Centre, Munich Re NatCatSERVICE Global natural catastrophes Very low insurance penetration rate in low and lower middle income countries Overall losses* US$ 2,750bn 24% 3% Insured losses* US$ 690bn 2% 2% 8% 65% *in 2009 values 96% *in 2009 values 1,700,000 fatalities Ratio insured to overall losses 30% 7% 8% High / upper middle income Overall losses: 2,008 bn$ Insured losses: 676 bn$ (= 34%) 55% Low / lower middle income Overall losses: 743 bn$ Insured losses: 14 bn$ (= 2%) Income Groups 2009 (definedby World Bank): High income economies (GNI** > 11,906 US$) Upper middle income economies (GNI** 3,856-11,905 US$) Lower middle income economies (GNI** 976-3,855 US$) Low income economies (GNI** < 975 US$) ** GNI: Gross National Income 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at April Workshop A: Riskmanagement for Green Investments 1

2 Development of investments in renewable energies and new technologies Worldwide, * US$ bn Investment in 2020 Peak Scenario*** Investment in Base Scenario**** 373** 502** 548** 590** * New investment in energy supplies including reinvestment, research and development costs and small-scale projects ** ** Forecasts *** 2020 Peak Scenario: annual CO2 emissions have to peak before 2020 (to limit global mean temperature increase to 2 degrees) **** Base Scenario ( business as usual ) Source: New Energy Finance Investments in renewable energies (worldwide, 2008): US$ 120bn* By region (%) Accounts for 10% of global energy infrastructure spending Europe invests most, followed by North America * Includes new investments from VC/PE, public markets, and asset finance only. Excludes reinvestment adjustment. By technologies (%) Wind continued to attract the most investment (US$ 53bn), mainly for new capacity building Source: UNEP/SEFI/New Energy Investment Munich Re, Geo Risks Research US$ 31bn of new investment went to solar energy, which has grown at an average annual rate of 70% since 2006, followed by geothermal with a CAGR of 57% 4 Workshop A: Riskmanagement for Green Investments 2

3 New technologies: role of the insurance industry Risks of renewable energies Technology / Regulatory risk Risk of technological change Many technologies are still at an early stage and not yet proven, so growth in the renewable energy sector cannot be taken for granted Further development and research are dependent on subsidies and political support. E.g. photovoltaic only profitable in Germany due to subsidies Possibility of breakthrough in nuclear fusion (high worldwide expenditure on research) Expansion of coal power generation, possible with the help of CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) The role of the insurance industry in the implementation of new technologies Enabling / acceleration of the commercialization of new technologies Support of economic development Commercial Satellite Performance covers for PV Geothermal Technology Development Job creation Economic growth 5 Wind energy (offshore, onshore) New opportunities: Wind and no-wind covers Annual income depends on wind conditions. Cover (examples): Cover for the technology in the construction phase ALoP: Advanced loss of profits insurance provides indemnity in the event that loss or damage leads to construction delays Credit risks can be covered e.g. if it is not possible to deliver (on the agreed date) Cover can be provided for loss of income due to an excess/lack of wind (investors and operators) 6 Workshop A: Riskmanagement for Green Investments 3

4 Geothermal power New opportunities: Cover of exploration risks for geothermal drilling projects Germany's largest geothermal power station to date was built at Unterhaching, near Munich, in early Its thermal energy output is 38 MW and its power output 3.4 MW. Cover (example): In 2003, Munich Re became the first insurer to develop exploration cover. This insures drilling costs in the event that no find is made or the find is insufficient, providing security for investors and planners. Drilling costs are partly or fully indemnified if the amount extracted and/or water temperature prove(s) insufficient for power or heat generation. 7 Solar power Global solar radiation and performance cover Sunshine is not a constant. Natural fluctuations and long-term performance are new investment risks. Cover (examples): Loss of income due to loss or damage in transit ALoP: Advanced loss of profits insurance provides indemnity in the event that loss or damage leads to construction delays Liability cover during the construction and operational phases Performance cover guaranteeing completion or output of the power station and thus the cash flow 8 Workshop A: Riskmanagement for Green Investments 4

5 THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST Ernst Rauch Head Corporate Climate Centre, Munich Re Contact: Homepage: Workshop A: Riskmanagement for Green Investments 5

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