DEVELOPMENTS & TRENDS IN FEOL MATERIALS FOR ADVANCED SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES Michael Corbett mcorbett@linx-consulting.com Semicon Taiwan2015
LINX BACKGROUND
Linx Consulting 1. We help our clients to succeed by creating knowledge and developing unique insights at the intersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicals industry 2. The knowledge is based on a core understanding of the semiconductor device technology; manufacturing processes and roadmaps; and the structural industry dynamics 3. This knowledge is leveraged to create advanced models, simulations and real-world forecasts 4. Our perspectives are by direct research and leveraging our extensive experience throughout the global industry value chain, including: Experience in global electronics and advanced materials and thin film processing industries Experience in the global chemicals industry Experience at Device Producers Experience at OEMs
Linx Consulting Service Portfolio Multi-Client Reports IC Materials CMP Deposition Patterning Cleaning Gases III-Vs, TSV, WLP, Solar Proprietary Projects Market Planning M & A Growth and Diversification Supply Chain Optimization Technology Commercialization Strategic Planning Voice of the Customer Econometric Semiconductor Forecast Financial planning Sales and Operational planning Forecasting Cost Modeling Client demand modeling Product development Bill of Materials quantification Hilltop Economics LLC IC Knowledge, LLC Semi LCD Packaging PV Nano Technology LED/ Compound Semi
Industry Analysis Reports Offered 1. Advanced Cleaning and Surface Preparation: Technologies and Markets (5 th Edition) 2. Advanced Patterning Forecasting (Semi-Annual) 3. Advanced Thin Films for FEOL and BEOL Applications (5 th Edition) 4. Chemicals and Materials for WLP and TSV Applications 5. CMP in TSV (2 nd edition) 6. CMP Technologies and Markets to the Sub-10nm Node (6 th edition) 7. Electronic Specialty Gases 8. Global Market for MO Precursors 9. Specialty Abrasives in CMP (4 th edition) 10. Wafer Polishing Technologies and Markets 11. The Econometric Semiconductor Forecasting Service 12. Strategic Cost Model
SEMI INDUSTRY TRENDS
3D Processing and New Materials Drive Scaling Gate Architecture New Memory 3D Packaging EUV
Better Inspection Tools are Impacting Chemicals Optical (particle detection) systems such as SP3 and SP5 are identifying new defects Optical (particle detection) performance improvements have enabled wafer fabs, to see and identify more a greater number of process defects It is expected the most advanced detection capability will reach 10-15nm particle detection as well as enhanced capabilities to pick up micro-scratches In general, many new defects are driven by the introduction of new materials and processes A lot of the particle related challenges in the future will be driven by introduction of new devices (not yet in production) with many different new materials. Examples of new devices include the following: Advanced DRAM structures with new transistors, capacitor dielectrics and capacitor electrodes STTMRAM, a possible replacement for DRAM VNAND (3D NAND), which will have a lot of challenges due to the high aspect ratios and deep structures will be a challenge Based on the above, the industry will need to use very pure chemicals, with greater dilution to lower metallic and particulate contamination
Logic Growth Drivers IMEC has demonstrated the integration of highmobility channel InGaAs n-channel and Ge p-channel metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistors. Also possible - all Ge High Mobility Structures CVD Co improves Cu wetting and extends Cu gap fill. CVD Co is thin, continuous, conformal layer that repairs any discontinuities for barrier/seed A cross-section TEM of a 50-nm trench structure coated with a ~5nm Ru:TaN liner followed by ECD copper. The filling characteristics are equivalent to seeded copper, and direct plated films possess generally larger grain size characteristics Sources: Applied Materials, IMEC and Albany NanoTech
Emerging Logic Operations (1000s) THOUSANDS OF WAFERS 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Planar With RMG FINFET with RMG
Total Cu, Co via and Co Containing Operations (1000s) THOUSANDS OF WAFERS 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Copper Copper with Co Liners CO Via Bulk Fill
Memory Growth Drivers Ru electrodes may be used with novel dielectrics for DRAM DRAM scaling comes to an end within ~ 5 years. TSV technology can be used to continue to scale density. HMC, etc. 2D and 3D NAND will be integrated simultaneously. 2D structures will require higher planarity and 3D will open up new W polishes as well as oxide steps MRAM provides non-volatile storage, high read write speeds, lower energy dissipation and high write endurance Sources: Matheson, JG Park, UMC/Sematech
3D NAND W CMP Operations (1000s) THOUSANDS OF WAFERS 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3D NAND
MATERIALS COST TRENDS IN LEADING EDGE SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES
Advanced Logic Wafer Fab Materials $400 $350 $ per Wafer by Node $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 65nm 45nm 32nm 22nm 14nm ALD CMP CVD PVD & ECD Litho Process chemicals
50% 45% 40% Advanced Logic Wafer Fab Materials Growth 393% Wafer Fab Materials Node to Node Growth Rate 47% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 15% 27% 20% 10% 9% 5% 0% Compound Growth Rate by Node ALD CMP CVD PVD & ECD Litho Process chemicals
DRAM Wafer Fab Materials $200 $180 $ per Wafer by Node $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 68nm 58nm 48nm 32nm 26nm 20nm ALD CMP CVD PVD & ECD Litho Spin-on Materials Process chemicals
DRAM Wafer Fab Materials Growth 35% 30% 32% Wafer Fab Materials Node to Node Growth Rate 25% 20% 15% 17% 15% 10% 7% 7% 5% 0% 2% 1% Compound Growth Rate by Node ALD CMP CVD PVD & ECD Litho Spin-on Materials Process chemicals
CHEMICALS AND MATERIALS MARKETS
Materials Demand Drivers Multipliers FinFETs 6 x CMP steps 2 x Epi depositions 3D NAND Cu interconnect Litho Extensions 32x layer stack or more! 1 x separation etch 1x planarization dep 4x W dep and CMP 6-14x Logic wafers Cobalt integration 2-4x Memory Multiple litho steps Multiple cut masks SADP/SAQP 2x depositions Cut masks 3x etches Divisors 450mm 1/ 2.25 wafer starts
Econometric Semiconductor Forecast Materials Demand Track Silicon 3,200 3,000 2,800 SEMI MSI ESF Q3 2015 Forecast (August) 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 History: SEMI Forecast: Hilltop Economics Annual Percent Change In MSI 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-0.1% 0.4% 11.4% 4.1% 5.0% 7.7% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ESF 2015 Q3 2015Q2 2015Q3F 2015Q4F 2016Q1F 2016Q2F Forecast (August 2015) MSI 2702 2646 2521 2573 2766 %Change 2.2% -2.1% -4.7% 2.1% 7.5% %Change vs prior year 4.4% 1.9% -1.1% -2.4% 2.4% The mean absolute error is an exceptionally low 3.5%, an indication that the model and forecasting process has effectively captured semiconductor MSI s relationship to the macro economy. Source: Hilltop Economics LLC
FEOL Wafer Fab Materials Total Wafer Fab Materials Market $M $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ALD & Advanced CVD Clean CMP (incl PCMP) Litho PVD, SOD & Plating ESG Semi Bulk Gases
Growing Importance of Process Materials Wafer fab materials supply in the semiconductor industry has segmented into discrete segments Special Commodities, which will cycle Specialty Materials, which solve problems, but are limited by small scale production Wafer fab materials represent about 20% of the cost for a 200mm logic wafer and about 10% of the costs for a 300mm logic wafer Materials Segment Special Commodities Driver Large volume Consistency Cost Key technologie s High volume manufacturing Specialty Chemicals Low volume High service requirements Proprietary products not easily substituted Purchased for performance Profit margins are higher Proprietary formulations Synthesis Applications expertise Chemicals and Materials that can differentiate and still considered to be specialty chemical products as they are enabling integrations and device structures Source: Hendry Intel SMC 2014
Capital Spending ad Customer Concentration Fab Capex by Region 2014 Leading buyers of CMP Consumables Slurries ($M) Pads ($M) Based on future trends in capex, buyer power / (CMP) consumable intensity will continue in Taiwan and Korea and remain stable in the USA Customer concentration may offset specialties model Source: SEMI ad Linx CMP Markets & Technologies 2015 External Disclosure Not Permitted
Conclusions Good semi industry growth outlook over the next several years New applications in both memory and logic will continue to drive the opportunities for advanced materials going forward Lithography materials continue to represent largest percentage of cost ALD materials have the fastest growth rate Two chemical/materials business models specialties and commodities will exist Each model has its own challenges