100% Renewable Power Nightmare, Dream or Reality? Antonella Battaglini Kyoto Club, Roma

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1 100% Renewable Power Nightmare, Dream or Reality? Antonella Battaglini Kyoto Club, Roma

2 Energiekonzept Global and European Development Roadmap to 2050 Slide 2

3 Nightmare - Incubo... Affinché i prezzi rimangano accessibili a tutti non possiamo fare a meno di carbone e nucleare (appello dell industria tedesca al governo conservatore) Dream - Sogno Dobbiamo essere realisti: la Germania ha bisogno di carbone e nucleare

4 Nightmare response The German Energiekonzept An attempt for a comprehensive strategy for the time between now and 2050

5 Targets Target (%) GHG reduction (base: 1990) REN power REN Power demand reduction

6 Target scenarios: Power ~30% less electricity 22-31% import (roughly half renewable) 19-24% fossil & nuclear power 75-81% of generation renewable

Target scenarios: Power Offshore 2050: 17-28 GW

7 Target scenarios: Power Offshore 2050: GW Onshore 2050: 36 GW PV 2020: 33 GW PV 2050: 39 GW

8 How to do this Markets; fossil and nuclear power plants Creation of a functioning European power market Extension of nuclear power operation time until 2035 Support for CCS (only small (<5% of market) operators ) CCS pilots in European framework (12 CCS plants/storages by 2020)

time until 2035 Support for CCS (only small (<5% of market) operators

9 How to do this Cost-efficient expansion of renewables Faster reduction of PV FITs Dispatchability bonus/market premium for virtual power plants - Targeted operation of biomass as back-up for fluctuating REN Short term: higher but shorter FIT for offshore wind Medium term: Tendering for offshore wind, instead of FIT Adaptation of legislation for building permits for onshore/offshore wind expansion

fluctuating REN Short term: higher but shorter FIT for offshore wind Medium term: Tendering for

10 How to do this Grid expansion 2011: Zielnetz Grid expansion; overlay grid; North Sea grid and cluster-connections for offshore wind; better integration of DE in EU grid Faster grid expansion - Increase public acceptance through information offensive German rolling 10-year grid plan (yearly updates) Review of grid tariffs Introduction of Smart meters (no concrete target)

grid expansion - Increase public acceptance through information offensive German rolling

11 How to do this Integration of renewables More market-based REN support - Optional market premium to be introduced in 2012 EEG review? More responsibilities for REN in system, control energy Review of possibilities for capacity market Expansion of storage capacities - Exploitation of all pumped storage potentials in DE - Usage of Norwegian/Alpine pumped storage potentials - Increased R&D in various storage technologies - 1 million electric cars by 2020, 6 million by 2030 use as storage?

More responsibilities for REN in system, control energy Review of possibilities for capacity market Expansion of storage

12 Conclusions for the Energiekonzept No real strategy after 2020 Lack of coherence in measures and numbers Clearly in need for improvement Attempt to reopen the nuclear debate beyond life extension Denial of a rising industry

Clearly in need for improvement Attempt to reopen the

installed capacity in 2009 GW 78 for $ 119bn Global REN capacity 2009.

13 Realtà Nel 2009 malgrado la crisi finaziaria EU e USA hanno investito più nelle rinnovabili che non in nucleare e energie fossili Global REN installed capacity in 2009 GW 78 for $ 119bn Global REN capacity Source GWEC 2010; IHA 2010; REN Global Wind capacity Source GWEC 2010

14 Realtà Nel 2010 EU ha investito 65 milliardi nel solare soltanto. In Cina 19 milliardi di credito sono stati garantiti al solare da una sola banca. Stocks crescono del 65% Global REN installed capacity in 2009 GW 78 for $ 119bn PV Capacity Growth Source EPIA 2010

15 Realtà I prezzi dell elettricità continuano a calare, malgrado I prezzi al consumatore continuino a salire. L eolico ha già raggiunto grid parity e determina il calo dei prezzi sui mercati. Non è ragionevole mantenere supporti per ii fotovoltaico ai livelli italiani, (E. Council resolution) Nei mercati finanziari non c è disponibilità di capitale per nuove centrali nucleari La rete continua ad essere indispensabile per ogni scenario

Non è ragionevole mantenere supporti per ii fotovoltaico ai livelli italiani, (E.

16 Reality Costs of REN technologies have been decreasing and some already reached grid parity.

17 17 Reality - System Reliability - Combining regional demand curves reduces volatility SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA analysis Regional demand variation from average per hour on weekend day % Hrs CET Regional demand variation from average per day throughout the year %

Regional demand variation from average per hour on weekend day %

18 Generation output by technology as modeled for 2050 Yearly energy balance, 60% RES pathway, 20% DR, TWh per week Higher wind in the winter Higher solar in the summer Week Overall system peak demand in winter OCGT Storage Hydro CSP PV Wind 1 Geothermal Biomass Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Demand 1 Storage included in the model relates to the existing hydro storage available across the regions SOURCE: Imperial College, KEMA, team analysis

Week Overall system peak demand in winter OCGT Storage Hydro CSP PV Wind 1 Geothermal Biomass Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Demand 1 Storage

19 DR helps to follow peak supply, maximizing the use of renewables 60% RES, 20% DR WEEK 32 SUNNY WEEK 1 1 The graph shows how the original demand line (purple) is shifted to a higher level (red line) by DR to capture the higher PV production SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA; roadmap 2050 team analysis 19

(purple) is shifted to a higher level (red line) by DR to capture the

20 Different approaches

21 Slide 21

22 Future SuperSmart Grid North See Offshore North Sea Offshore Grid EU Continental Storage Super Grid MENA-EU Super Grid MENA CSP Smart structure full of DG

23 100% renewable electricity A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa

24 A roadmap to 2050 Key findings: 1. It is possible to create a 100% REN power system in EU and NA by only using processes that have already started. This is not a radical proposal, but neither is it trivial. 2. The grid is the key enabler & most grid issues must be completed before No technology breakthrough is needed. 4. A European Approach is needed Key observations: Most enabling areas need to be completed before Predictability and political leadership is required A European perspective needs to replace national ones in strategic planning We need to start now... Slide 24

25 The opportunity exists to achieve 100% renewable electricity for Europe and North Africa Develop new business models Manage the transition Encourage energy cooperation with developing countries and regions Reduce import dependency and develop interdependency across the regions Electricity price predictability and stability Competitiveness on global markets Eliminate energy poverty

26 grazie 100% renewable electricity A roadmap to 2050 for Europe and North Africa Roadmap A practical guide to a prosperous low carbon Europe Antonella Battaglini SEFEP and PIK antonella.battaglini@sefep.eu - antonella@pik-potsdam.de

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