Convegno nazionale di apertura 2014 IL FOTOVOLTAICO IN ITALIA ALLA SFIDA DEL MERCATO: NUOVI BUSINESS MODEL PER L ERA DELLA GRID PARITY

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1 Convegno nazionale di apertura 2014 IL FOTOVOLTAICO IN ITALIA ALLA SFIDA DEL MERCATO: NUOVI BUSINESS MODEL PER L ERA DELLA GRID PARITY Fiera Milano 7 maggio 2014 New business models for the PV industry in the post-incentive era: an international perspective Gaëtan Masson Markets & Industry Consultant, EPIA ICARES Consulting sprl EPIA s 9 th Market Workshop 2014 The Future of Electricity (Belgian Second Degree Humor)

2 A game changer 109 EUR/MWh 80 EUR/MWh The Highest Global Market Ever but in Asia 40 GW?

3 Installed capacity +40% +140 GW European PV Market(s) evolution(s) Italian market boom in 2011 and 2012 German market boom from 2010 to 2012 Spanish bonanza in 2008

4 EPIA s 9 th Market Workshop 2014 Future Market Development (Australian first degree humor) The constraints PV will face in Europe Reduced political support Heavy Pressure Stable Demand PV Grid Financing Market Design Regulatory Instability

5 The «Old» Business Model Rapid growth & Price Decrease Financial Support Schemes (Feed in tariffs) were extraordinary successful to develop the market and to lower prices. Utilities Pressure Regulatory Instability Cost of support schemes 6.7 Bn EUR Need for New Business Models Rule 1 Profitability Rule 2 Manageable Operational Risk Rule 3 Regulatory Stability over 20 years. Competitiveness of PV electricity Quality Products & Installations Visibility on Grid costs &Taxes

6 From the old world to the new one Competitive PV market Financially driven PV market Don t underestimate the change! Psychology of investors Different marketing approaches Competitiveness of PV Installations

7 Competitiveness of PV Installations with Self consumption Grid Parity Mark Competitiveness Mark Uncompetitive PV Partial competitiveness Competitiveness PV LCOE Compensable Retail electricity Prices Depends on the SC rate! Depends on grid costs Depends on wholesale electricity prices Categories of Business Models And Competitiveness System Ownership SC Enablers (DSM, storage ) Self Co. Elec. Mkt. Residential Uncomp. Partial Comp YES YES* System size Commercial industrial Uncomp. P. Comp Uncompetitive P. Comp YES YES YES* YES* Utility scale Uncompetitive Comp NO YES *Unless SC = 100%

8 Market Segmentation in Europe Consequence of policy choices. 11 GW Self consumption business models in a nutshell Grid Parity 30 to 100% SC BIPV Highest SC possible Or reduce system size Storage? Direct coupling H&C DSM Grid Financing Market Design Regulatory Needs From Scambio Sul Posto to what?

9 Wholesale market driven business models Wholesale Parity Other markets Ancillary services Capacity markets Balancing Balancing / Syst. Adequacy Market Design Regulatory Needs Aggregation European markets? New market design? EPIA s 9 th Market Workshop 2014 PV in the electricity system (European Commission sense of Humor) PV

10 PV 1st or 2nd source of electricity installed in EU IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014 Variable and flexible power sources grow in Europe Long term trend is similar:

11 IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014 A combination of Wind onshore + Solar + Gas would cost ~70 EUR/MWh Feed in Tariff*, in EURreal 2013/MWh LCOE**, in EURreal 2013/MWh % 50% Source: Agora Energiewende, 2013 EPIA s 9 th Market Workshop 2014 Temporary Conclusion (Grid Operators Sense of Humor)

12 The constraints PV will face in emerging markets Competitiveness? Which Business Models? Political Stability Grid Hosting Capacity Cost of financing Quality & Reliability THANK YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION This document was presented by Gaëtan Masson pvps.org European Photovoltaic Industry Association Renewable Energy House Rue d Arlon 63 67, 1040 Brussels Belgium T +32 (0) F +32 (0)

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