Phakwe group. Growing with Africa

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1 Phakwe group Growing with Africa

2 GROUP STRUCTURE 2

3 Energy supply, demand and security There are a wide range of energy resources, with different security of supply and environmental issues: Non-renewable Renewable Recyclable Coal, oil, gas (plus oil shale, tar sands, lignite etc.) A finite stock of resources, which will run out An infinite flow of resources Wind, solar PV, Solar CSP, hydroelectric, co-gen, geothermal Can be used repeatedly, if managed carefully Biomass, nuclear (with reprocessing of fuel) Competitive pricing structures due to economies of scale Large local coal reserves High carbon emissions and Environmentally unfriendly Significant environmental impacts during extraction (oil wells, opencast mines) Safe and reliable supply SA one of the richest country ito of solar resource Lower carbon footprint and environmental impact Less water resource as SA is a water scarce country Treat to water supply Costly Large land area needed for biomass. Unresolved issues of storing high level radioactive waste.

4 Energy Security Challenges Energy Challenges Eskom not able to meet RSA electricity demand New base load projects ( Medupi & Kusile) running behind schedule Declining coal quality impact plant performance Maintenance Related Constraints Generation plants reliability decreased from 85% to 75% since 2008/9 More than 60% of baseload generation plants are past their midlife requiring major planned maintenance and refurbishment Generating plants running at high load factors (90% vs 75%) Short term solution funding requirements Increased O&M costs due to age of generation units Reliance on diesel fuel to keep lights on is costly and not financially sustainable Capex requirements to refurbish older plants in order to meet baseload energy capacity demand Network Reliability DSM(Demand Side Management) & Energy Efficiency Programme management Strengthening Transmission network REIPP Grid connection lead times???? Page 4

5 Energy security needs and requirements to achieve GCR vision over the next 15 years Reliable and uninterrupted supply of energy is crucial to achieving GCR s vision over the next 15 years. GCR vision could be achievable through the diversification of the energy supply sources: Off the grid connection with small IPP s for high energy consuming industrial users and corporates Renewable energy supply to essential government services, i.e gas run boilers for hospitals Tariff incentives to industrial consumers for peak time consumption reductions Offer corporates carbon credit incentives Solar street and traffic lights Accelerated acquisition of renewable energy diversification Look at ways to copy and replicate the success of the DoE s successful and proven REIPP Program: Since MWs of Renewable Electricity procured through REIPP Infrastructure spend of R170 billion in capital investment to the South African economy Renewable IPP supply to the grid (including coal, gas and co-generation) to increase by 17,000MW by end of Average per kilowatt hour tariff has declined since April onshore wind declined by 55% to an average of 62 cents per unit and solar PV by 76% to 79 cents per unit. Reliance on a diverse energy mix decreases the energy security risk

6 Energy, Technology and Sustainable consumption Energy & Consumption Smart building Smart meter elec / grid Smart Meter Water Smart urban lighting Waste Management Watering management Noise detection

7 Current energy infrastructure and mix Comparison of IRP 2010 with Updated IRP Installed capacity in GW Peaking PumpSt Gas CSP Hydro New Coal Exist. Coal Nuclear Wind PV Status quo IRP Note: Peaking includes today s Diesel-fired OCGTs, future gas-fired OCGTs and Demand-side Management (DSM); Base Case of IRP 2010 review

8 Energy technology cost comparison Source: EPRI updated cost report (2012), BCG PV report (2010), EPMD calculations

9 Thank you Source: EPRI updated cost report (2012), BCG PV report (2010), EPMD calculations

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