Economic Situation. Construction Equipment and Building Material Machinery. July 2016

Transcription

1 Economic Situation Construction Equipment and Building Material Machinery July 2016 This document is intended for the sole use within VDMA member companies and may not be forwarded to third parties. VDMA Sebastian Popp

2 Construction Equipment: Economic Cycle It only looks like volatility was low 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Mai 11 Mai 12 Mai 13 Mai 14 Mai 15 Mai 16 Order intake compared to previous year in %, rolling six-month averages, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

3 Construction Equipment: Incoming Orders and Turnover Weak building construction is a statistical base effect Order Intake Turnover 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Building Construction Earthmoving Road Construction Total January-May 2016/2015, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

4 Building Construction Equipment More of a sideways movement recently 300 Incoming orders Turnover Rolling 12-month averages and original values, index 2010=100, last data point: May 2016, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

5 Earthmoving Equipment Strong order intake in the first quarter Incoming orders Turnover Rolling 12-month averages and original values, index 2010=100, last data point: May 2016, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

6 Road Construction Equipment Sub-sector is just 10 percent below the peak levels 250 Incoming orders Turnover Rolling 12-month averages and original values, index 2010=100, last data point: May 2016, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

7 Germany: Construction Equipment Sales Forecast for 2016: +2% Units of earthmoving equipment sales, 20-years average, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

8 Sales in Europe in Q Strong recovery in France +71% 30% 15% 0% -15% -30% Germany France Italy Russia Spain Turkey UK source: CECE VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

9 World Construction Equipment Sales Q The growth poles are Europe, India, and Oceania North America: -11% Europe: +8% Russia: -14% China: +5% India: Latin America: -41% Africa: -34% Middle East: -10% +30% Other Asia: -16% Oceania: +21% units of earthmoving equipment, source: international statistics, own estimations and calculations VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

10 Building Material Machinery: German Exports Surprisingly strong market bounce-back in Russia South Korea Turkey Peru Saudi Arabia Canada Netherlands India Poland Austria United Kingdom Switzerland France China Russia USA Jan-May 2015 Jan-May in EUR million, source: German Federal Statistics Bureau VDMA Sebastian Popp page 10 26/07/2016

11 Building Material Machinery April numbers suggest strong orders at bauma 300 Incoming orders Turnover Rolling 12-month averages and original values, index 2010=100, last data point: May 2016, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 11 26/07/2016

12 Building Material Machinery April pushed the sector into the positive area Order intake Turnover 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Domestic International Total January-May 2016/2015, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 12 26/07/2016

13 Economic Cycle Building Material Machinery Real upturn or just a singular effect? 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Mai 11 Mai 12 Mai 13 Mai 14 Mai 15 Mai 16 Order intake compared to previous year in %, rolling six-month averages, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 13 26/07/2016

14 Building Material Machinery: German Exports USA still the largest market Italy Australia UAE South Korea Netherlands Turkey Austria United Kingdom Poland Canada Switzerland France China Russia USA Jan-Mar 2015 Jan-Mar in EUR million, source: German Federal Statistics Bureau VDMA Sebastian Popp page 14 26/07/2016

15 Snapshot North America Beyond the turning point rolling 6m av original Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 construction equipment sales, Index 2010=100, rolling six months averages, source: international statistics, own estimations and calculations VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

16 Snapshot Latin America Back at 2009 crisis levels, no signs of improvement rolling 6m av original Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 construction equipment sales, Index 2010=100, rolling six months averages, source: international statistics, own estimations and calculations VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

17 Business expectations for the next 6 months German Manufacturers: Business Climate Spring brought a significant upswing Upswing Boom Recession Downturn Current business situation souce: ifo, June 2016 VDMA Sebastian Popp page 17 26/07/2016

18 European Manufacturers: Business Climate Sharp downturn after the Brexit vote Climate Index Current Future Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 source: CECE, July 2016 VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

19 Europe: The Construction Industry Growth is back, Poland takes the lead 2015 value in EUR bn Germany 297 0,9% 0,9% France 222-0,9% 2,5% UK 200 5,7% 3,2% Italy 160 0,3% 2,5% Spain 84 2,5% 4,0% Netherlands 67 2,9% 2,8% Switzerland 62-0,6% 0,0% Poland 46 2,6% 2,1% Norway 44 9,7% 7,8% Belgium 41 0,0% 1,5% Europe ,9% 2,4% 2016/ /2016-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Construction industry output against previous year in %, source: Euroconstruct, June 2016 VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

20 The European Construction Industry All sub-sectors set for growth Residential Non-residential Civil engineering Construction sector 4% % % % % % % % change against previous year in %, construction sector output in EUR bn, source: Euroconstruct, June 2016 VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

21 World: Construction Industry Positive forecast until 2019 for most regions CAGR ( ) Canada 2,1% 3,4% 3,3% 3,2% 3,1% 3,0% USA 2,0% 3,2% 4,3% 5,1% 5,8% 4,1% Mexico 3,5% 3,9% 4,4% 4,5% 3,4% 4,0% Argentina 1,2% 0,8% 0,0% 0,0% 0,4% 0,3% Brazil 3,3% 1,5% 4,3% 4,3% 3,9% 2,1% South Africa 5,1% 7,4% 8,2% 3,0% 3,1% 5,4% Russia 13,4% 2,3% 0,6% 0,5% 0,5% 3,1% Saudi Arabia 7,8% 0,5% 0,5% 1,2% 2,3% 2,5% UAE 2,5% 7,2% 6,7% 6,9% 3,7% 5,4% India 8,4% 7,9% 7,5% 7,1% 7,2% 7,6% China 3,4% 3,4% 4,3% 5,1% 6,5% 4,6% South Korea 0,1% 1,1% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% 0,8% Japan 2,7% 4,2% 2,6% 2,8% 2,5% 3,0% Indonesia 6,1% 6,2% 6,6% 6,7% 6,8% 6,5% Australia 2,6% 2,4% 1,1% 1,1% 0,7% 0,4% forecast of construction investments growth in %, source: SIMCO VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016

22 Summary: Industry Outlook Short and medium term prospects Inconsistent signals at the moment» Despite the usual pre-bauma slowdown, construction equipment started rather stable into the year» Good momentum on the European market in the first two quarters» World markets still with troubles: China, Russia, and Latin America Medium to long term demand rather positive» Construction industry growth, emerging markets will be back» Mining sector to stabilize, but later than expected Sales Forecast» German manufacturers remain rather optimistic» Industry turnover forecast 2016: construction equipment +3%, building material machinery +/-0% at best VDMA Sebastian Popp page Juli 2016