Chart 1: Zambia's Major Trading Partners (Exports + Imports) Q Q Switzernd RSA Congo DR China UAE Kuwait UK Zimbabwe India Egypt Other

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1 Bank of Zambia

2 us $ Million 1. INTRODUCTION This report shows Zambia s direction of merchandise trade for the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the corresponding quarter in Revised 1 statistics, based on the Harmonized Coding System (HS) are reported and exports are valued as free on board (f.o.b) while imports are reported at cost, insurance and freight (cif). The report is divided into six sections. In section 2, the major trading partners are presented. Section 3 gives the major export markets and this is followed, in section 4, by the major source countries of Zambia s imports. Section 5 shows direction of trade by region, while section 6 concludes. 2. ZAMBIA S MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS Preliminary data shows that during the fourth quarter, Zambia s total trade (exports plus imports) grew by 15.5 percent to US $2,469.7 million from US $2,138.2 million recorded during the corresponding quarter the previous year. Switzerland continued to be Zambia s major trading partner as trade grew by 22.5 percent (see chart 1). This was largely explained by high volumes of metals purchased by Swiss-based metal traders 2 from Zambian mining companies. This was followed by the Republic of South Africa (7.8 percent) and Congo (DR) (29.7 percent) mainly on account of high levels of imports of manufactured goods and copper ores from these countries, respectively. Zambia s trade with China and United Arab Emirates more than trippled to US $175.5 million and 87.9 million, from US $57.6 million and US $28.9 million, respectively. Similarly, trade with Zimbabwe more than doubled to US $56.2 million from US $22.3 million recorded during the corresponding quarter in This was due to an increase in both exports and imports to and from that country. This reflects some considerable level of Zimbabwe s economic recovery, following the replacement of the domestic currency with the US Dollar. Other countries such as Kuwait, United Kingdom, India, and Egypt, however, recorded reduced trade with Zambia during this period. 700 Chart 1: Zambia's Major Trading Partners (Exports + Imports) Q Q Switzernd RSA Congo DR China UAE Kuwait UK Zimbabwe India Egypt Other Q Q Q Q Q Direction of trade data has been revised by Central Statistical Office (CSO) after a survey of major exporters and importers. 2 Large metal traders (e.g Glencore International AG), headquartered in Switzerland, purchase copper and cobalt from Zambian mining companies off gate and sale the commodity to other foreign markets. Most Zambian companies are not fully aware of the final destination of the copper purchased by these companies. 1

3 3. ZAMBIA S MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS In the period under review, Zambia s exports grew by 28.9 percent to US $1,325.3 million from US $1,028.2 million, recorded in the fourth quarter of Switzerland maintained its top rank as Zambia s major export market as exports to that country increased by 23.8 percent to US $678.0 million from US $547.5 million (see chart 2). This was driven by a rise in the volumes of metals purchased by Swiss-based metal traders from Zambian mining companies. South Africa ranked second as exports to that country grew by 33.4 percent to US $156.4 million from US $117.2 million. A surge in exports of copper wire and electric cables to that country contributed to this outturn. China took the third place as exports more than trippled to US $126.2 million from US $24.3 million recorded during the corresponding period in A surge in metal exports (copper and cobalt) explained this outturn. Congo (DR) ranked fourth with exports marginally increasing to US $79.0 million from US $74.5 million. Zimbabwe rose to the fifth position, displacing United Kingdom, Malawi and Saudi Arabia. This was spured by an upswing in exports of food items and machinery parts to that country. Zambia s exports to United Arab Emitares and Belgium more than doubled, explained by increased metal exports to these countries Chart 2; Zambia's Major Export Markets Q Q Switzerland RSA China Congo DR Zimbabwe S/Arabia Malawi United Kingdom Q Q Q Q Q UAE Belgium Other 4. MAJOR SOURCE COUNTRIES OF ZAMBIA S IMPORTS Zambia s imports from the rest of the world grew by 3.1 percent to US $1,144.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 from US $1,110.0 million recorded during the same period in South Africa, maintained its top rank accounting for 41.0 percent of Zambia s total imports. Imports from that country marginally increased to US $469.2 million from US $462.8 million recorded during the corresponding quarter in 2008 (see chart 3). Key imports included chemicals, manufactured goods and machinery. Congo (DR) ranked second as imports from that country grew by 41.2 percent to US $215.7 million from US $152.8 million recorded during the same period in An increase in imports of copper ores and concentrates, accounted for this outturn. The United Arab Emirates ranked third, displacing Kuwait, India, China and United Kingdom as imports from that country more than doubled to US $61.6 million from US $20.8 million recorded during the corresponding period. A surge in imports of petroleum products, machinery and chemicals contributed to this increase. Similarly, imports from Kenya grew by 48.5 percent, following an increase in imports of animal and vegetable oils and chemicals. Imports from Japan, 2

4 however, fell by 18.1 percent explained by a decline in imports of motor vehicles. The depreciation of the kwacha against other major currencies, during this period, relative to same quarter in 2008, largely contributed to the decline Chart 3: Major Source Countries of Zambia's Imports (Q Q4 2009) RSA Congo DR UAE Kuwait India China UK Kenya Zimbabwe Japan Other Q Q Q Q Q DIRECTION OF TRADE BY REGION This section shows the share of regions or groups of countries in Zambia s total exports and imports. In this analysis, Zambia s trading partners are categorised into major geographic regions or economic groupings, i.e., the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), ASIA, Southern African Development Community (SADC) Exclusively, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Exclusively and SADC & COMESA (Dual Members). All other countries not part of these regions are classified as Other. The OECD grouping is further sub-divided into European Union (EU) 3 and Non-EU. 5.1 DIRECTION OF ZAMBIA S EXPORTS BY REGION On a regional basis, data shows that apart from COMESA, Zambia s exports to all other regions increased in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the corresponding period in The Non- EU OECD region maintained its top rank as Zambia s major export market, accounting for 55.0 percent of total exports (see chart 4). Exports to this region grew by 19.9 percent to US $723.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2009, from US $602.8 million recorded during the corresponding period the previous year. This was largely driven by high volumes of metals purchased by Swissbased metal traders from Zambian mining companies. ASIA emerged second, accounting for 15.0 percent as exports to that region more than doubled to US $204.4 million from US $89.4 million, spured by increased metal exports to China. SADC (exclusively) was displaced to the third position accounting for 13.0 percent, though Zambia s exports to these countries grew by 34.6% to US $175.3 million from US $130.3 million. SADC & COMESA (Dual members) ranked fourth as exports to these countries rose by 33.9 percent to US $151.4 million from US $113.0 million realised over the same period the preceding year. Increased exports of food and live animals, 3 Countries classified as European Union (EU) in this paper are those that adopted the Euro as their national currency and not simply members of the European Union. 3

5 US $millions chemicals, machinery and equipment parts (to Congo DR), beverages and tobacco and manufactured goods (to Malawi) as well as food items (to Zimbabwe) explained this outturn. The EU ranked fifth as exports grew by 22.9 percent, driven by an increase in metal exports to Belgium, and food items to Germany. Meanwhile, exports to COMESA (exclusively) declined by 50.5 percent following a substantial reduction in copper exports to Egypt. 800 Chart 4: Direction of Exports by Region (Q Q4 2009) OECD(Non-EU) SADC (Exclusively) COMESA (Exclusively) SADC & COMESA (Dual Members) Q Q Q Q Q ASIA EU OTHER 5.2 DIRECTION OF ZAMBIA'S IMPORTS BY REGION With regard to imports, a regional analysis shows a mixed performance. While, imports from OECD (Non-EU) and EU declined, an increase was reported in imports from SADC, COMESA and ASIA. The SADC (exclusively) maintained its top rank as the major source of Zambia s imports (accounting for 45.0 percent), though imports marginally increased to US $503.2 million from US $501.6 million (see chart 5). This was followed by SADC & COMESA (Dual Members) accounting for 21.0 percent, as imports from these countries grew by 36.6 percent to US $239.8 million from US $175.6 million. An increase in imports of copper ores and concentrates from Congo (DR), food items and mineral fuels and lubricants from Zimbabwe, contributed to the rise. ASIA took the third position, accounting for 20.0 percent of Zambia s total imports as imports from that region grew by 5.3 percent. A surge in imports of machinery and equipment and manufactured goods from China as well as petroleum products from United Arab Emirates, contributed to the increase. The Non-EU OECD and EU regions ranked fourth and firth as imports fell by 21.0 percent and 33.0 percent, respectively. A decline in imports of chemical and related products from Germany (EU), machinery and equipment from Finland (EU), motor vehicles from Japan (Non-EU OECD) and machinery and equipment from Sweden (Non-EU OECD), explained the decline. This could partly reflected depressed output from these regions as a result of the effects of the global economic crisis. COMESA (exclusively) ranked fifth, and only accounted for 3.0 percent of Zambia s total imports. This was despite registering a 32.9 percent rise in imports to US $26.8 million from US $19.6 million. 4

6 US $millions 600 Chart 5: Direction of Imports by Region (Q Q4 2009) OECD(Non-EU) SADC (Exclusively) COMESA (Exclusively) SADC & COMESA (Dual Members) ASIA EU OTHER Q Q Q Q Q CONCLUSION During the quarter under review, Zambia recorded a notable improvement in exports to the rest of the world and a modest increase in imports. Increased trade flows suggest signs of recovery of the global economy in general, and Zambia in particular from the effects of the global financial crisis. Export markets such as Switzerland, South Arfica, China, Congo DR, Zimbabwe and Saudi Arabia recorded substantial increases in exports, while notable declines were recorded in exports to United Kingdom. Similarly, a notable improvement was recorded in imports from Congo (DR), United Arab Emirates and China, while countries such as Kuwait and Japan recorded notable declines. On a regional basis, the OECD (Non EU) continued to dominate the export markets while SADC (exclusively) continued to be the major source of Zambia s imports. Given the buoyant copper prices on the international market and a stable and relatively stronger Kwacha, exports and imports to and from all markets are expected to increase in the

7 ANNEX 1: ZAMBIA'S EXPORTS TO THE REST OF THE WORLD (IN US $'M; FOB), Q Q COUNTRY Q Q Q Q Q SWITZERLAND SOUTH AFRICA (REPUBLIC OF) CHINA DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO ZIMBABWE SAUDI ARABIA MALAWI UNITED KINGDOM UNITED ARAB EMIRATES BELGIUM EGYPT KOREA, REPUBLIC OF NETHERLANDS TANZANIA, UNITED KENYA INDIA GERMANY KUWAIT BOTSWANA REPUBLIC OF THAILAND BURUNDI NAMIBIA RWANDA MADAGASCAR MOZAMBIQUE SUDAN LUXEMBOURG UNITED STATES OF AMERICA PAKISTAN SWAZILAND MALAYSIA SINGAPORE PHILIPPINES HONG KONG SWEDEN FRANCE ANGOLA AUSTRALIA OTHER TOTAL: 1, , , (CSO) 6

8 ANNEX 2: ZAMBIA S IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD (US $'M); CIF Q Q COUNTRY Q Q Q Q Q SOUTH AFRICA (REPUBLIC OF) DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO UNITED ARAB EMIRATES KUWAIT CHINA INDIA UNITED KINGDOM KENYA ZIMBABWE JAPAN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA MOZAMBIQUE GERMANY TANZANIA, UNITED SWEDEN HONG KONG IRELAND NETHERLANDS BOTSWANA DENMARK KOREA, REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA SINGAPORE BELGIUM CANADA AUSTRALIA BRAZIL NAMIBIA MALAWI SWITZERLAND FRANCE EGYPT FINLAND MAURITIUS TAIWAN, PROVINCE OF CHINA REPUBLIC OF THAILAND ITALY SPAIN ISRAEL SWAZILAND

9 MALAYSIA AUSTRIA PAKISTAN LEBANON OTHER TOTAL: 1, , (CSO 8

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