ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis

Transcription

1 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis Research Report ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis September 2013 Patrick Rusby

2 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2 About this report This report provides: a five-year forecast of SME ICT services worldwide, including ARPU, connections and revenue for each service, for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, in each geographical region (see Figure 1) in-depth analysis of the regional and national trends, drivers and inhibitors for the adoption of certain technologies, and recommendations for CSPs and vendors that wish to sell these services to SMEs charts and analysis of revenue by category and size of enterprise, revenue per enterprise and revenue by sales channel for each region and country a strategic view of the SME ICT services sector for emerging and developed markets, as well as eight individual countries. SMEs are enterprises with fewer than 250 employees. We have increased the scope of the forecast since ISDN now includes BRI lines, xdsl is an aggregate of ADSL and VDSL, and cable modem is a new item. This report draws on Analysys Mason s core forecasts and interviews and briefings with operators and vendors. Figure 1: Key report coverage areas [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Geographical coverage Regions modelled Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe North America Latin America Developed Asia Pacific Emerging Asia Pacific Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Countries modelled individually France Germany Italy Spain Sweden Turkey UK USA ICT services Mobile voice and data Mobile voice Mobile messaging Mobile handset data Mobile broadband Fixed voice PSTN ISDN 1 VoIP/VoBB Fixed broadband xdsl 2 Dial-up Cable modem 3 Ethernet Leased line Video services Pay TV 1 ISDN now includes BRI as well as PRI. Our previous forecast included only PRI. 2 xdsl includes ADSL and VDSL. Our previous forecast included only ADSL. Cloud services Mobile device management Unified communications Remote desktop Cloud storage and back-up Sales channels Face-to-face Telesales Online CSP-owned store Agent Distributor Third-party owned store 3 New to this forecast.

3 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 3 Contents Slide no. 8. Executive summary 9. Executive summary 10. Fixed broadband and cloud services revenue will increase as a percentage of total revenue 11. Emerging markets will contribute an increasing proportion of total revenue 12. CSPs and vendors rely on direct sales to SMEs 13. Cloud services revenue will increase rapidly 14. Recommendations 15. Recommendations for vendors and operators 16. Market definition and methodology 17. Market definition: ICT services included in this forecast report and breakdown of data 18. Market definition: SMEs by size segment 19. Geographical definitions: the worldwide forecast is broken down into developed and emerging markets, and eight regions 20. Geographical definitions: the report provides forecasts for eight individual countries 21. Methodology Slide no. 22. Worldwide forecasts 23. Significant changes since our previous forecast 24. SME ICT revenue worldwide is increasing 25. SME ICT services revenue per enterprise: worldwide 26. Mobile data and mobile broadband revenue is growing 27. Fixed-line voice revenue is declining 28. Fixed broadband revenue is increasing 29. Video services revenue will increase but remain relatively low 30. Cloud services revenue is key growth area for SME ICT services 31. Drivers of cloud services revenue growth 32. Emerging and developed markets forecasts 33. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: emerging markets 34. Revenue per enterprise: emerging markets 35. Sales channel mix: emerging markets 36. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: developed markets 37. Revenue per enterprise: developed markets 38. Sales channel mix: developed markets

4 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 4 Contents Slide no. 39. Individual country forecasts 40. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: France 41. Revenue per enterprise: France 42. Sales channel mix: France 43. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: Germany 44. Revenue per enterprise: Germany 45. Sales channel mix: Germany 46. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: Italy 47. Revenue per enterprise: Italy 48. Sales channel mix: Italy 49. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: Spain 50. Revenue per enterprise: Spain 51. Sales channel mix: Spain 52. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: Sweden 53. Revenue per enterprise: Sweden 54. Sales channel mix: Sweden 55. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: Turkey 56. Revenue per enterprise: Turkey Slide no. 57. Sales channel mix: Turkey 58. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: UK 59. Revenue per enterprise: UK 60. Sales channel mix: UK 61. Total revenue by category and size of enterprise: USA 62. Revenue per enterprise: USA 63. Sales channel mix: USA 64. About the author and Analysys Mason 65. About the author 66. About Analysys Mason 67. Research from Analysys Mason 68. Consulting from Analysys Mason

5 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 5 List of figures [1] Figure 1: Key report coverage areas Figure 2: SME ICT services revenue by service category, worldwide, Figure 3: SME ICT services revenue, developed and emerging markets, Figure 4: Share of SME ICT services revenue by channel and service, Figure 5: Cloud services revenue by size of enterprise, worldwide, Figure 6: Enterprise sizes, geographical coverage, service categories, ICT services and sales channels included in this forecast Figure 7: Enterprises and employees by enterprise size, worldwide 2013 Figure 8: Enterprises and employees by enterprise size, worldwide, 2013 Figure 9: Regional breakdown used in this report Figure 10: Countries covered individually in this report Figure 11: Methodology used to build the data annex to this report Figure 12: Significant changes to our SME ICT services forecast since Figure 13: SME ICT services revenue by size of enterprise, worldwide, and SME ICT revenue growth rate, Figure 14: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, worldwide, Figure 15: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month by category, worldwide, 2013 and Figure 16: SME mobile voice and data revenue and CAGR by sub-category, worldwide, 2013 and Figure 17: SME mobile voice and data revenue by sub-category, worldwide, Figure 18: SME fixed-line voice revenue and CAGR by sub-category, worldwide, 2013 and Figure 19: SME fixed-line voice revenue by sub-category, worldwide, 2013 Figure 20: SME fixed broadband revenue and CAGR by sub-category, worldwide, 2013 and Figure 21: SME fixed broadband revenue by sub-category, worldwide, 2013 Figure 22: SME video services revenue and CAGR by size of enterprise, worldwide, 2013 and Figure 23: SME video services revenue by size of enterprise, worldwide, Figure 24: SME cloud services revenue and CAGR by sub-category, worldwide, 2013 and Figure 25: SME cloud services revenue by sub-category, worldwide, 2013 Figure 26: SME ICT services revenue, by category, emerging markets, Figure 27: Share of SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, emerging markets, Figure 28: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, emerging markets, Figure 29: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, emerging markets, 2013 and Figure 30: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, emerging markets, Figure 31: SME ICT services revenue, by category, developed markets,

6 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 6 List of figures [2] Figure 32: Share of SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, developed markets, Figure 33: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, developed markets, Figure 34: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, developed markets, 2013 and Figure 35: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, developed markets, Figure 36: SME ICT services revenue, by category, France, Figure 37: Share of SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, France, Figure 38: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, France, Figure 39: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, France, 2013 and Figure 40: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, France, Figure 41: SME ICT services revenue, by category, Germany, Figure 42: SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, Germany, Figure 43: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Germany, Figure 44: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Germany, 2013 and Figure 45: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, Germany, Figure 46: SME ICT services revenue, by category, Italy, Figure 47: SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, Italy, 2013 Figure 48: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Italy, Figure 49: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Italy, 2013 and Figure 50: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, Italy, Figure 51: SME ICT services revenue, by category, Spain, Figure 52: Share of SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, Spain, Figure 53: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Spain, Figure 54: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Spain, 2013 and Figure 55: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, Spain, Figure 56: SME ICT services revenue, by category, Sweden, Figure 57: SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, Sweden, 2013 Figure 58: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Sweden, Figure 59: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Sweden, 2013 and Figure 60: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, Sweden, Figure 61: SME ICT services revenue, by category, Turkey,

7 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 7 List of figures [3] Figure 62: SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, Turkey, Figure 63: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Turkey, Figure 64: Revenue per enterprise per month, by category, Turkey, 2013 and Figure 65: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, Turkey, Figure 66: SME ICT services revenue, by category, UK, Figure 67: SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, UK, Figure 68: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, UK, Figure 69: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, UK, 2013 and Figure 70: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, UK, 2013 Figure 71: SME ICT services revenue, by category, USA, Figure 72: SME ICT services revenue, by size of enterprise, USA, 2013 Figure 73: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, USA, Figure 74: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, USA, 2013 and Figure 75: SME ICT services revenue per year by sales channel, USA,

8 Share of total revenue ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 11 Emerging markets will contribute an increasing proportion of total revenue In 2013, emerging markets will contribute 44.4% of worldwide SME ICT services revenue, but this figure is increasing and will be 47.6% in. Revenue from emerging markets will increase from USD94.0 billion in 2013 to USD113.2 billion in. Take-up of fixed voice and fixed broadband will increase as operators roll out more fixed networks. SMEs will purchase more mobile and fixed-line services to help their business develop as the price of connectivity service declines as connectivity becomes more prevalent. SMEs that are relying on mobile broadband or consumergrade services are likely to upgrade to enterprise-grade services to support their business, as the cost of fixed-line services decreases. Revenue in developed markets will continue to grow, from USD117.7 billion in 2013 to USD124.4 billion in. Much of this growth will come from cloud services, where revenue will increase from USD3.1 billion in 2013 to USD7.7 billion in. Fixed voice revenue will decline as ARPU declines as a result of competitive pressure and substitution by other services such as mobile, BYOD, OTT and VoBB. Figure 3: SME ICT services revenue, developed and emerging markets, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Developed markets Emerging markets

9 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 25 SME ICT services revenue per enterprise: worldwide Figure 14: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month, by category, worldwide, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 1% 4% Service 16% 27% USD86.7 per enterprise per month 52% Mobile voice and data Fixed voice Fixed broadband Video services Cloud services Figure 15: SME ICT services revenue per enterprise per month by category, worldwide, 2013 and [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Revenue per enterprise per month (USD) 2013 Mobile voice and data Fixed voice Fixed broadband Video services Cloud services ICT revenue per SME worldwide will be USD86.7 per month in, an increase from EUR79.7 per month in Mobile voice and data will account for the greatest share of this revenue, at 52% in, and revenue per enterprise per month increases from USD41.1 in 2013 to USD44.9 in. Mobile revenue will increase, particularly in emerging regions where penetration has been lower than in developed regions. Cloud services is the fastest-growing category, as adoption of cloud services increases rapidly in the next five years. Revenue will increase from USD1.3 per enterprise per month in 2013 to USD3.6 per enterprise per month in, at a CAGR of 22.5%. Fixed-line voice services revenue will decline, from USD24.7 per enterprise per month in 2013 to USD23.6 per enterprise per month in, at a CAGR of 0.9%. Decreases in ARPU in developed countries will drive this decline, despite adoption and revenue increasing in emerging markets. Fixed broadband revenue per enterprise per month will increase. ARPU for all fixed broadband services decreases as SMEs move from leased lines to Ethernet, which has a lower ARPU.

10 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 65 About the author Patrick Rusby (Research Analyst) contributes research for the SME Strategies and Enterprise research programmes. Patrick has specialised in working with and for SMEs, focusing on segmentation strategies, sales channels and SME decision-making processes. Patrick was previously a Research Manager for Knowledge Peers, where he ran a programme of research aimed at informing senior-level SME employees of best practices within finance, technology and telecoms. Patrick has written reports on mobile device management services for SMEs, cloud-based unified communications and business challenges for SMEs. He holds a Master s degree in Contemporary British Politics from Goldsmiths College, University of London.

11 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 66 About Analysys Mason Knowing what s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. Consulting Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy. We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit Research We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts. Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit

12 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 67 Research from Analysys Mason We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world. Alongside our standardised suite of research programmes, our Custom Research team undertakes specialised, bespoke research projects for clients. The dedicated team offers tailored investigations and answers complex questions on markets, competitors and services with customised industry intelligence and insights. To find out more, please visit

13 ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis 68 Consulting from Analysys Mason For more than 25 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is constant. We help shape their understanding of the future so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do that, we have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver real results for clients around the world. Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We advise clients on regulatory matters, help shape spectrum policy and develop spectrum strategy, support multi-billion dollar investments, advise on operational performance and develop new business strategies. Such projects result in a depth of knowledge and a range of expertise that sets us apart. We help clients solve their most pressing problems, enabling them to go farther, faster and achieve their commercial objectives. To find out more, please visit

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