Wireless broadband forecasts for : HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX

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1 Research report Wireless broadband forecasts for : HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX Alastair Brydon and Mark Heath July 2008

2 Contents [1] 2 Contents Slide no. 4. Document map Executive summary 5. Executive summary 6. Document map Overall wireless broadband market 7. Wireless broadband will be delivered by a variety of technologies 8. High take-up of wireless broadband services will expand the user base from 70 million in 2008 to 2.1 billion by Cellular technologies will be the dominant means of supporting wireless broadband users 10. Underpinning our forecasts is growth in take-up of wireless broadband arising from some key market drivers 11. Developing regions will propel the number of cellular customers from 3.5 billion in 2008 to 5.0 billion by Demand for wireless broadband services, and for higher quality, will increase 13. To increase capacity and efficiency, MNOs will encourage migration to advanced technologies 14. Annual revenue from wireless broadband will represent 58% of total service revenue in Most wireless broadband users in 2015 will be in developing regions, where service revenue will be low Slide no. 16. Document map HSPA and HSPA+ 17. HSPA networks are already becoming widespread 18. HSPA/HSPA+ will dominate wireless broadband services, with 1.1 billion customers worldwide by Worldwide annual service revenue from HSPA/HSPA+ will peak at USD410 billion in Many HSPA operators will upgrade to HSPA+, even once LTE becomes available 21. Document map Broadband EV-DO 22. EV-DO will be limited to the niche of CDMA2000 networks and will reach 404 million customers by Developed Asia and North America will dominate EV-DO service revenue of USD174 billion in Document map LTE 25. Most MNOs will not invest in WiMAX, but will evolve to LTE from HSPA and HSPA+ 26. After a slow start, LTE growth will accelerate to gain 440 million customers by High ARPU levels will cause LTE service revenue to reach USD194 billion in Western Europe and developed Asia will lead the growth of LTE

3 Contents [2] 3 Contents Slide no. 29. Developing regions will account for 36% of LTE customers by Low ARPU in developing regions will limit their contribution to LTE service revenue 31. HSPA+ is an important technology, but LTE will have a larger user base by Document map WiMAX 33. In developed markets, WiMAX will face intense competition from fixed and cellular broadband services 34. The limited success of fixed BWA in developed markets highlights the challenge for WiMAX 35. Competition from other technologies will limit WiMAX s global customer base to 98 million in Developing regions will generate 70% of the total WiMAX service revenue of USD13 billion in Cellular broadband customers will outnumber and outspend WiMAX users 38. Annex Wireless broadband technology overview 39. Cellular standards define a series of broadband capabilities 40. HSPA and HSPA+ significantly enhance UMTS radio interface performance Slide no. 41. HSPA+ employs higher-order modulation and smart antennas to boost the performance of HSPA 42. EV-DO provides CDMA2000 operators with a similar evolution path to HSPA 43. LTE is a major development by 3GPP that will be commercially available towards the end of WiMAX IEEE e-2005 supports mobile broadband services 45. Document map Authors, copyright and key to acronyms 46. Authors 47. Acknowledgements 48. Copyright and disclaimer 49. Key to acronyms 50. Document map Lists of figures and tables 51. List of figures and tables [1] 52. List of figures and tables [2] 53. Document map About Analysys Mason reports and services 54. About Analysys Mason 55. Reports from Analysys Mason 56. Market intelligence services from Analysys Mason 57. Custom Research from Analysys Mason

4 46 Authors, copyright and key to acronyms Authors Dr Alastair Brydon and Dr Mark Heath are authors of more than 40 Analysys Mason reports, including: iphone Shows the Way for Mobile TV; Critical Ingredients of Mobile TV: femtocells and sideloading; 3G Network Evolution from 2007 to 2012: HSPA+, LTE, WiMAX and femtocells; The Business Case for Picocells and Femtocells in the Enterprise Market; Femtocells in the Consumer Market: business case and marketing plan; How to Succeed with Fixed Mobile Convergence; The Acceleration of Fixed Mobile Substitution in Western Europe: facts and figures; Seizing the Opportunities from Enterprise Mobility; The Future of the Global Wireless Industry: scenarios for ; The World s Top Ten Non-voice Services for Mobile Operators; Mobile Operator Strategies for Fixed Broadband; The Business Case for WiMAX; and Forecasting the Commercial Impact of Wireless VoIP in the USA and Western Europe. Alastair is CEO of Sound Partners Ltd. Prior to joining Sound Partners, he reported to Nokia s European management team and worked with many of Nokia s customers to implement market firsts ranging from the introduction of prepaid mobile tariffs to new mass-market content services. Previously, Alastair worked in a number of roles for the BT Group, focusing on the evolution of wireless services, networks and technologies. He also contributed to international research and standardisation of GSM, DECT and 3G. Alastair holds BSc and PhD degrees from UMIST, where he was awarded the IEE Prize for top student. Mark is Director of Research at Sound Partners Ltd. In the past, he held a number of marketing and business development roles in Nokia, ultimately becoming responsible for strategy and business development across Europe. Previously, Mark was responsible for business planning at BT Cellnet in the UK, after spending six years at BT in wireless systems research and development. He holds BSc and PhD degrees from the University of Leeds, winning the University prize for his research in telecoms. Mark also holds an MBA, graduating as top student from Henley Management College.

5 Document map 50 Document map: List of figures and tables Executive summary Overall wireless broadband market HSPA and HSPA+ Broadband EV-DO LTE WiMAX Annex Wireless broadband technology overview Authors, copyright and key to acronyms List of figures and tables About Analysys Mason reports and services

6 List of figures and tables [1] 51 List of figures and tables Figure 1: Technologies that deliver wide-area wireless broadband services Figure 2: Wireless customers worldwide, Figure 3: Wireless broadband customers worldwide, by technology, Figure 4: Key factors driving the take-up of wireless broadband services Figure 5: Cellular customers worldwide, by region, Figure 6: Figure 7: Service and quality drivers for wireless broadband services Estimated network capacities for W-CDMA, HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE for a typical deployment of base stations Figure 8: Wireless service revenue worldwide, Figure 9: Proportion of wireless broadband customers in developed and developing regions, Figure 10: Proportion of wireless broadband service revenue from developed and developing regions, Figure 11: W-CDMA and HSPA active commercial networks worldwide, December 2005 to June 2008 Figure 12: HSPA/HSPA+ customers worldwide, by region, Figure 13: HSPA/HSPA+ service revenue worldwide, by region, Figure 14: Split between HSPA and HSPA+ customers, Figure 15: Broadband EV-DO customers worldwide, by region,

7 List of figures and tables [2] 52 List of figures and tables Figure 16: Broadband EV-DO service revenue worldwide, by region, Figure 17: LTE customers worldwide, by region, Figure 18: LTE service revenue worldwide, by region, Figure 19: LTE customers in developed regions, Figure 20: LTE customers in developing regions, Figure 21: Proportion of LTE customers in developed and developing regions, Figure 22: Proportion of LTE service revenue from developed and developing regions, Figure 23: Number of customers worldwide using HSPA+ or LTE technology, Figure 24: Properties of fixed and cellular broadband services that will allow them to squeeze WiMAX services in developed regions Figure 25: Actual broadband connection penetration of population in Western European countries, by service type, March 2008 Figure 26: WiMAX customers worldwide, by region, Figure 27: WiMAX service revenue worldwide, by region, Figure 28: Wireless broadband customers worldwide, by technology, Figure 29: ARPU from cellular broadband and WiMAX services worldwide, Table 1: Summary of advanced wireless broadband technologies

8 Document map 53 Document map: About Analysys Mason reports and services Executive summary Overall wireless broadband market HSPA and HSPA+ Broadband EV-DO LTE WiMAX Actions Authors, copyright and key to acronyms List of figures and tables About Analysys Mason reports and services

9 About Analysys Mason 54 About Analysys Mason reports and services Analysys Mason is the world s premier specialist advisor in telecoms, IT and media. Through our global presence, we deliver strategy advice, operations support and market intelligence to leading commercial and public sector organisations in more than 80 countries. The intellectual rigour, operational experience and insight of our people have helped our clients to meet some of the toughest challenges they face within the industry. Analysys Mason has consistently delivered significant and sustainable business benefits to our clients during the past twenty years on issues ranging from advising on operator strategy and tactics, development of national sector regulation, through execution of major financial transactions, to the deployment of public and private network infrastructure. We are respected worldwide for the exceptional quality of our work, our independence and the flexibility of our teams in responding to client needs. We are passionate about what we do and are committed to delivering excellence to our clients. The company has more than 300 staff worldwide, with headquarters in London and offices in Cambridge, Dubai, Dublin, Edinburgh, Madrid, Manchester, Milan, Paris, Singapore and Washington DC. Analysys Mason offers two types of service: Consulting: We work with our clients to provide bespoke advice and support throughout the business cycle, helping major players to set strategy, plan for change, and implement that change. Research: We offer market intelligence services, publications and custom research to help our clients to identify key strategic issues, formulate strategies, identify trends and opportunities, and measure performance. For more information visit our Web site at

10 Reports from Analysys Mason 55 About Analysys Mason reports and services Analysys Mason s reports are designed to keep you up to date with industry developments and how they affect players in the telecoms value chain from fixed and mobile network operators, to software and equipment vendors, and content providers and distributors. Our reports will help you to: explore the factors that are driving market evolution understand how industry trends will affect your business define and evaluate your strategic options using decision frameworks and scenarios identify where opportunities lie for growth find out which players are successful and why. Our publication programme offers more than 25 reports each year, covering all the key issues affecting the telecoms industry and the latest hot topics. Recent reports have provided expert analysis of such topics as pay TV, next-generation networks, mobile media and entertainment, 3G infrastructure sharing, picocells and femtocells, fixed mobile convergence and mobile advertising, and have included country market forecasts for fixed and mobile telecoms. Each report is accompanied by an Excel spreadsheet containing the forecasts or other key data discussed in the report, presented in an easy-to-use format. All reports are offered with Analyst Support, allowing you direct consultation with the author. Shop online at: For information about our report subscription packages, please contact our Sales and Customer Service team on +44 (0) or us at

11 56 About Analysys Mason reports and services Market intelligence services from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason s online market intelligence services help you keep track of the latest developments in major telecoms markets worldwide. All our services are regularly updated and include a sophisticated range of interactive search, benchmarking and download tools. Analysys Mason Fixed Networks and Services provides analysis of European operators and ISPs, country reports for more than 30 markets, country market forecasts, commentary on industry trends and a module on the broadband market. Analysys Mason Mobile Networks and Services provides insight into the strategies of key players worldwide, country reports for more than 30 markets, country market forecasts and analysis of industry trends, and the Wireless Technology Tracker section, which keeps you up to date on cellular network and other wireless technologies. Analysys Mason Next-Generation Telecoms IT includes an interactive contracts database, market size estimates and forecasts, trends papers covering the latest issues in telecoms IT, and profiles of leading and up-and-coming vendors worldwide. Analysys Mason Telecoms Market Matrix provides a detailed and coherent quarterly view of the overall size, in operational and financial terms, of the main markets enumerated by the EU framework for telecoms regulation and of the incumbent s and other operators shares of those markets. Our Analyst Support package, which allows you direct consultation with our telecoms experts, is an ideal complement to your chosen market intelligence service. For more information on our services or a guided demonstration, please contact our Sales and Customer Service team on +44 (0) , us at or visit our Web site at:

12 Custom Research from Analysys Mason 57 About Analysys Mason reports and services Analysys Mason has developed its portfolio of Custom Research services in response to customer demand for bespoke market intelligence, when more data is needed than is found in an off-the-shelf report or database, when there are complex questions about specific companies or markets that need to be answered, or when analysis needs to be tailored. Custom Research can deliver real value when an organisation needs to answer specific questions about how it is positioned in the market, and how to optimise performance at various stages of the product or service lifecycle. For more information, or to discuss how we could help you to meet your specific information needs, please contact our Custom Research team on +44 (0) or us at Deeper, broader analysis; increased distillation Insight Analysis Structured information Data Structured analysis of service markets Bespoke company profiling News and event analysis Data and information collection Analyst support Market sizing and forecasting Expert survey and interview work Bespoke country profiling Large-scale primary research

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