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1 US Data Services Executive Summary CMR Market Research April 2015 Reproduction without permission 1

2 The contents of this report represent CMR s analysis of the information available to the public or released by responsible individuals in the industry. It does not contain information provided in confidence by CMR s clients. Since much of the information in the study is based on a variety of sources that we deem to be reliable, including subjective estimates and analyst opinion, CMR does not guarantee the accuracy of the contents and assumes no liability for inaccurate source materials. Copyright 2015 by CMR Market Research All Rights Reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, prior to written permission of the publisher. About CMR CMR provides in-depth analysis of major telecommunications and IT industry trends. CMR has been tracking the telecom and IT industry for over twenty years. CMR analysts are in the marketplace every day evaluating information and analyzing data, providing the most current, leading-edge market assessments. CMR tracks actual financial reporting from all of the major telecom service providers throughout the world and measures revenues and units by multiple segments, including wireless/wireline, voice/data/video, and residential/business. CMR analysts estimate upside and downside market ranges, and looks for factors that could alter future market conditions. Contact us at: , or Reproduction without permission 2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 US Data Services Market 1.2 Data as Platform 1.3 Forecast Summary 1.4 Report Structure 2 BACKGROUND 2.1 Definitions 2.2 Business Environment 2.3 Data Service Revenue Trends 2.4 Business Strata 2.5 Retail, Wholesale 2.6 Service Provider Opportunities 3 DEMAND PATTERNS 3.1 Copper to Fiber Conversion 3.2 Ethernet 3.3 Internet Access 3.4 TDM Migration 3.5 Wireless Backhaul 3.6 Cloud Computing and Hosting Segments 4 DATA SERVICES 4.1 Broadband DSL Cable Modems 4.2 Private Lines 4.3 Packet: FRS, ATM 4.4 Ethernet Technology in the WAN 4.5 IP Services 4.6 Network Cloud 4.7 Hosting 4.8 Managed Services Reproduction without permission 3

4 5 MARKET FORECAST 5.1 Forecast Summary 5.2 Methodology 5.3 Detailed Data Services Forecasts Revenue Forecasts Demand Forecasts 5.4 Conclusion FIGURES Figure I-1 US Data Services Revenues, ($Billions) Figure I-2 Report Segmentation Figure II-1 Porter s Five Forces Figure II-2 US Services Revenues by Service, ($Billions) Figure II-3 US Business Services Revenues by Service, 2010, 2014 (Percent) Figure II-4 US Data Revenues by Service, 2010, 2014 (Percent) Figure II-5 US Business Revenue Distribution by Segment, 2014 Figure II-6 Business Strata Data Services Pyramid Figure II-7 US Business Revenues: Retail, Wholesale, 2010, 2014 (Percent) Figure II-8 US Business Revenues Market Share, 2010, 2014 (Percent) Figure III-1 Broadband Demand, 2012, 2019 (Percent) Figure III-2 Ethernet Demand, 2012, 2019 (Percent) Figure III-3 Dedicated IP Demand, 2012, 2019 (Percent) Figure III-4 TDM Integration Figure III-5 Wireless Backhaul Business District Figure III-6 Carrier Ethernet for Mobile Backhaul Figure III-7 Cloud Computing Figure IV-1 US Broadband Subscribers, (Millions) Figure IV-2 Current HFC Bandwidth Available for Data Figure IV-3 Future HFC Network Bandwidth for Data Figure IV-4 Private Line Architecture Figure IV-5 E-Line Services Figure IV-6 E-LAN Service Figure IV 7 IP Network Services Architecture Figure IV-8 Cloud Services Figure IV 9 Managed Services Reproduction without permission 4

5 TABLES Table II-1 Business Data Services Table II-2 Business Strata Characteristics Table II-3 Business Strata Functional Requirements Table II-4 Business Strata Data Services Table II-5 Data Services Growth Drivers Table II-6 Business Data Services by Provider Table II-7 Service Providers Strengths and Weaknesses Table IV-1 Data Services and Technology Development Table IV-2 Downstream DSL Bit-rates vs. Reach (Mbps) Table IV-3 Optical Carrier Hierarchy Table V-1 US Data Services Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-2 Broadband Services Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-3 Private Line Local Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-4 Private Line Long Distance Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-5 Frame Relay Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-6 Dedicated IP Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-7 IP VPN Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-8 Ethernet Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-9 IP Application Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-10 Hosting Revenues, ($Billions) Table V-11 Broadband Subscribers, (Millions) Table V-12 Private Line Local Ports, (Thousands) Table V-13 Private Line Long Distance Ports, (Thousands) Table V-14 Frame Relay Ports, (Thousands) Table V-15 Dedicated IP Ports, (Thousands) Table V-16 IP VPN Ports, (Thousands) Table V-17 Ethernet Ports, (Thousands) Reproduction without permission 5

6 CHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 US Data Services Market Revenues in the US business data services market have doubled in the past ten years, as demand for higher bandwidth and access to the Internet consistently grew at double-digit rates. Business data services are a subset of the broader wireline services category, which includes voice, data, and video services. Business data services as defined in this report include the full range connectivity options, from Broadband to Ethernet to IP access, as well as other IP applications that extend up into the ISO stack. Business data services also include hosting and IP platform capabilities, such as Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), Platform-as-a- Service (PaaS), and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS). The data services market includes a mix of the growth services identified above and other mature services, such as Frame Relay and Private Line services. These mature services support many of the existing business applications that will migrate to these growth areas. This report looks at these migration trends and provides projections of how the portfolio mix will change over the next five years. Private Line services, in aggregate, have reached a plateau after showing modest growth over the past decade. Frame Relay and ATM services are on a clear decline path, as businesses move from private packet to public packet transport services. IP Enterprise services, which include Dedicated IP access, IP VPNs, Ethernet services, IP Application services, and Hosting, are the growth segments of business data services. Reproduction without permission 6

7 Shifts in voice technology are added to the growth in data services. Substitution of VoIP services (a voice over data technology) is occurring rapidly in the US, as businesses cut their traditional switched access lines. Broadband subscriber growth in the US has allowed carriers to offset declines in access revenues. Broadband penetration of small businesses is approaching 80 percent and users are also enjoying higher download and upload speeds as providers expand network capacity and service offerings. More connected endpoints are also driving increases in backbone facilities in metro and core networks. While broadband providers are profiting by increasing their mass customer base, future profitability will be based on customer uptake of higher access bandwidth and value-added services. For both DSL and Cable Modem providers, the continued need for increased internet access speeds has allowed them to maintain and in some segments even increase ARPUs. The mix of services within the business data service pie has shifted to the more advanced services over the past four years, with IP and Ethernet services taking a larger slice of data spending. TDM-based data services, such as Private Lines and Frame Relay are declining, replaced by IP and Ethernet services, while businesses add more network-based solutions, such as Hosting, IP Application Management, and Cloud solutions, to their transport solutions. 1.2 Data as Platform The newest categories of business data services covered in this report use the various layer 3-7 capabilities in the ISO stack to offer improved performance for enterprise applications. IP has enabled the transformation of applications from the customer premises to the network, allowing broader access, increased availability, and faster performance. Cloud computing and Network Function Virtualization Reproduction without permission 7

8 (NFV) are other examples of data services that can be viewed as a platform for other services, providing discrete elements that can be added or subtracted as demands change.. The enterprise customer no longer needs to manage the application server, as third-party providers can provide variable levels of computing, storage, and support services to help customers run business applications in the network. Cloud computing or cloud services are an important part of the data services segment. Cloud computing is the use of hardware and software in a remote location, accessible over the Internet or a private IP connection. Cloud services allow enterprises to outsource some of the most complex network elements, such as server virtualization, security, and software maintenance, to a third party who has the resources and expertise to manage these complexities at scale. Application management services provide monitoring and management of critical enterprise applications, including configuration, database storage, server management, and management. Data services in the cloud can be more cost effective than do-it-yourself (DIY), as the service provider enjoys greater economies of scale in hardware purchases and monitoring resources, sharing these costs over multiple customers. Distributing enterprise applications throughout the cloud or to a remote data center also drives expansion of connectivity services, such as Ethernet or IP VPNs. Data services are no longer just transport services; they have become a platform for business application deployment. Over the next five years they will become an even richer mix of advanced services, layered on top of transport, which will allow business customers to broaden application access arrangements, improve application performance and availability, and offer more robust application features (such as location services and contextual information) to their end-users. Reproduction without permission 8

9 1.3 Forecast Summary CMR projects that the market for Data Services will grow twice as fast as the rate for other business services over the next five years. With Voice and legacy Data services declining, growth data services becomes even more important for service providers looking to maintain market share in this competitive market. Business Data services include Broadband (BB), Private Line, Frame Relay, IP-VPNs and Dedicated IP Access, Ethernet services, IP Applications, and Hosting services. CMR projects that from 2014 to 2019 Data Services revenues will increase from $74.8 billion to $91.1 billion at a CAGR of 4.0 percent. Figure II-1 shows CMR s summary revenue forecast for the next five years. Figure I-1 US Data Services Revenues, ($Billions) Chapter V provides detailed revenue and demand five year forecasts of all business data services, which have different growth profiles, ranging from declines Reproduction without permission 9

10 over 3 percent annually for TDM-based services to increases of over 13 percent annually for growth services. 1.4 Report Structure The data services examined in this report include all wireline telecommunications sold by retail and wholesale service providers in the US. The data services tracked in this repro are sold to a range of business, from small companies and independent owners (Small Offices and Home Offices) to large enterprise with thousands of employees in hundreds of locations, globally. These services allow businesses to connect with their employees as well as suppliers and customers. In our data gathering and analyses CMR tracks business services as a subset of the broader telecommunications market, which include all voice, data, and video services. Figure II-2 shows where these services fit within CMR s segmentation framework. Figure I-2 Report Segmentation Segmentation of Model Services Equipment Wireless Wireline Voice Data Msg Voice Data Carrier Enterprise Consumer Video BB PL FRS IPE Business Carrier Enterprise Residence Consumer ================== =========== =================== ======= ====================================== NA US CAN EMEA AP LA NA, EMEA, AP, LA US Data Services Reproduction without permission 10

11 All of CMR's market research reports provide in-depth analyses of major telecommunications industry issues. This report, US Data Services 2015, provides a comprehensive assessment of the US data services market, including assessments of the addressable market segments and key technology trends that will influence traffic and revenues over the forecast horizon. Complete five year forecasts of revenue and demand are also provided based on CMR s experienced judgment of the industry. CMR's forecasts are based upon primary and secondary research about current and future services adoption rates in the US. CMR maintains a comprehensive forecast model of US telecommunications spending, including actual revenue and metric reporting from all of the major industry players. These data are combined with various time series and econometric models of industry performance to produce projections of future revenues, units, and pricing. Business data services are a product of current transport services, technology trends, and business activity. CMR has developed a detailed model to support this validation. The model includes input from a number of independent variables, including business locations, broadband adoption, cloud computing, and data storage estimates. Assumptions about industry pricing, service migration, and penetration rates are continually validated with independent estimates from primary and secondary sources. The report is structured as follows: Chapter II, Background, provides an overview of the data services market, definitions used throughout the report, and the various retail and wholesale channels for the mix of data services covered in the report. Reproduction without permission 11

12 Chapter III, Demand Patterns, looks at the various patterns of demand both historical and prospective across the data services portfolio, including assessments of copper-to-fiber conversion and TDM migration. The chapter also addresses how new technologies, such as Ethernet, wireless backhaul, and Cloud computing, will affect future data services demand. Chapter IV, Data Services, provides an assessment of the entire data services portfolio, including business broadband, private line, Ethernet, IP, IP Applications Management, and Hosting. Chapter V, Market Forecast, provides CMR s five year forecasts of all business data services segments, including revenue and demand (subscribers, circuits, ports) from 2014 through Tables and Figures for each service, along with discussions of trends and conclusion, are also provided. Reproduction without permission 12

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