1 Trends in the Telecom industry Drivers for our connected age Gabrielle Gauthey President, Government and Public Sector Global Forum- Geneva-17 november COPYRIGHT 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2 TELECOMMUNICATION TRENDS A FAST GROWING INDUSTRY, A CHANGING MOBILE ENVIRONMENT 2 COPYRIGHT 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
3 DATA CONSUMPTION IS BOOMING NEED FOR INVESTMENTS 3.9Bn CONNECTED PEOPLE TO INTERNET IN % INCREASE IN VIDEO TRAFFIC % YoY INCREASE IN MISSION- CRITICAL SERVICES IN DC >70Bn CONNECTED THINGS TO INTERNET IN % INCREASE IN CLOUD AND DC TRAFFIC x INCREASE IN AVERAGE BROADBAND SPEED
4 PB/MONTH PB/MONTH MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH A WORLDWIDE REALITY Mobile data forecast Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific % % 28% Cumulative traffic distribution Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific Video streaming + Communications 66% OF TRAFFIC BY % 32% % 25 X Growth Over 5 Years EU APAC NAR Video communication Video streaming Web browsing Messaging and non-audio/video communication Audio streaming File transfer Gaming M2M Source: Bell Labs research & studies 10x WIRELESS BANDWIDTH GROWTH 20x WIRELINE BANDWIDTH GROWTH 720% INCREASE IN VIDEO TRAFFIC Mobile Internet 440% INCREASE 70% of mobile IN CLOUD AND DATA traffic CENTER by 2014 TRAFFIC 4
5 BELL LABS STUDY METRO TRAFFIC GROWING FASTER THAN BACKBONE TRAFFIC Source: Bell Labs metro traffic growth story: An architecture impact study 5
6 BELL LABS STUDY 75% OF TOTAL METRO TRAFFIC WILL TERMINATE IN THE METRO BY 2017 PROLIFERATION OF DATACENTERS IN THE METRO DRIVES AN INCREASE IN METRO TRAFFIC AND RESULTS IN MORE TRAFFIC BEING TERMINATED IN THE METRO VS. GOING TO THE BACKBONE Source: Bell Labs metro traffic growth story: An architecture impact study 6
7 $ 10 TRILLION NEEDED FOR TELECOM ( ) 7
8 THE INDUSTRY REALITY ERODING REVENUES, INCREASING TRAFFIC, HIGHER COSTS TRAFFIC TRAFFIC & REVENUES DECOUPLED REVENUES COSTS VOICE Dominated DATA Dominated 8
9 VARIOUS COMPETITION MODELS AROUND THE WORLD 2 platforms countries Competition between cable and telecom platforms This competition model has been adopted in the US and in a few Northern European countries and in Portugal Infrastructures are rolled-out in parallel and sometimes do not geographically overlap (e.g. US) Debate on competition model, and on coverage of less dense areas 1 platform countries Active infrastructure competition on top of common passive network Model adopted in France, UK, Italy, Spain for copper. On-going debate on right model for NGA. Slow roll out, focused on dense areas Leads to patchwork segmentation /fragmentation of the territory between dense and non-dense areas Other copper enhancing technologies considered to ease the cost ( e.g. vdsl/vectoring) 0 platform countries Case of developing/emerging countries where fixed infrastructure (access, backhaul, backbones) is poor and limits mobile and fixed internet access expansion Governments step-in to ensure coverage, speed, networks openness and services affordability Open Backbones (South America, Africa,..), shared LTE access (Mexico, Kenya) 9 COPYRIGHT 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
10 BROADBAND POLICY & REGULATORY TRENDS AMERICAS EMEA APAC Vertical integration, platform competition, open backbones & LTE Infrastructure based competition and limited public Intervention Network separation, broadband plans & rural coverage US : Unregulated broadband markets in the No public intervention outside rural areas; Pro-active spectrum allocation policy CALA countries (Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Argentina) focus on open backbones; Digital Dividend allocation for LTE in APT band plan; Open access wireless and Major regulatory reform in Mexico EU : high fragmentation of markets; difficult balance between active infra competition and passive sharing; On going regulatory reform for NGA but lack of investment; State Aid in rural and medium density areas/infra sharing; On going debate on Telecoms Single Market MEA : Open access backbones (Ghana, Burkina Faso), Open access wireless networks in digital dividend bands ( Kenya); Nation broadband plans (Morocco, South Africa) Pacific Asia :heavy influence of government and regulation ( SG, Aus, NZ); Structural separation, growth through premium connectivity and bitstream wholesale; open backbones & universal coverage lead network transformation Chinese market remains dominated by integrated operators South Asia : Focus on Broadband plans and rural coverage 10 COPYRIGHT 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
11 CHANGES AHEAD! A RANGE OF SCENARIOS Survivor Consolidation Revenue decline, industry loss of confidence, leading to consolidation of Telcos Worst case scenario! Clash of giants competition between integrated giant carriers, increased competitive threats from OTT US scenario Market Shakeout Structural separation, growth through premium connectivity sold to third parties APAC scenario Generative Bazaar Scattered initiatives, passive infrastructure sharing, valorization of active infrastructures Europe scenario HOW CAN GOVERNMENTS MANAGE THE TRANSITION AND ENSURE NEW INVESTMENTS IN NETWORKS? 11 COPYRIGHT 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
12 TELECOM NETWORK STRUCTURE A LAYERED MODEL End-user Investment needed Payback Services, Content & Apps (residential, public & business) Few m-3 y Active Network (network equipments, business & operation support) Passive Infrastructure (trenches, ducts, fibre) 20% >200 B 80% 5-7 y y Each layer has very a different financial profile and need to be addressed adequately 12
13 THE SERVICES SPECIALIST ALL-IP, CLOUD-IP, ULTRA-BROADBAND ACCESS Platform deployment LTE network build All-IP network & intelligence automation Mobile service management Maintenance Wireless optimization Small cells design ACCESS All-IP Networking SERVING A VIDEO AND CLOUD-ENABLED WORLD Motive broadband services Backhaul renovation FTTx roll-out SMALL CELLS Evolution to IMS Cloud IP enablement IP/Optical evolution & optimization Security integration & optimization Alcatel-Lucent the trusted vendor-of-choice in a 10+ Bn market(1) ~20% CAGR (1) 2015 Alcatel-Lucent analysis based on industry analysts studies 13
14 NETWORK EVOLUTION TO IP & CLOUD BASED ARCHITECTURES A COMBINATION OF ACTIVE WHOLESALE, SOFTWARE-DEFINED NETWORKING (SDN) AND NETWORK FUNCTIONS VIRTUALIZATION (NFV) End-users Retail Services (residential, public & business) IP layer-3 Ethernet layer-2 Active Infrastructure (network equipments, business & operation support) Wavelength Dark fibre Ducts, sewers, poles Passive Infrastructure Active wholesale - IPstream (IP L3) - Bitstream (Ethernet L2) Passive wholesale - Wavelength (by pair) - Dark fibre - Ducts/sewers DEVICE VIRTUALIZATION AND HOSTING FTTx DISTRIBUTED CLOUD FTTx SMALLER CELLS VNF CORE CLOUD SDN NF VNF CLOUD FUNCTION DISTRIBUTION 14
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