EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION

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Dominick Wilkins
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1 EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION Overview of current market trends for PV systems Ir Gaëtan Masson EPIA - Head of Business Intelligence IEA-PVPS - Task 1 Operating Agent 4 February 2014

2 Could PV electricity be cheapter than new nuclear? 109 EUR/MWh Hinkley Point - UK 80 EUR/MWh Fraunhofer ISE Central Germany Cheapest utility-scale 04 February Paris Page 2

3 Market Development 4 February 2014, Paris Page 3

4 Rapid Market Development Peak power demand x 2 Source: IEA PVPS 04 February Paris Page 4

5 2013 PV Market Growing market. At least 35 GW (installed <> connected to the grid) 35, February Paris Page 5

6 Evolution of the Global Installed PV Capacities 100 GW finally in Around 135 GW. > February Paris Page 6

7 First Power Source Installed from 2011 to 2013 in Europe 2013: - PV: GW - Wind: 10 GW - Gas: -2.7 GW (+5-7) In the same time, demand grew less than 5% 4 February Brussels

8 The EU trio: Gas / Wind / PV 4 February Brussels

9 Market size Table 1: Evolution of Top 10 Markets Germany Italy Germany 2 Italy Germany Italy 3 Czech Rep. China China 4 Japan USA USA 5 USA France Japan 6 France Japan France 7 China Belgium Australia 8 Belgium UK India 9 Spain Australia UK 10 Australia Greece Greece Market level to access the top MW 425 MW 912 MW 2013 China: 8-12 GW Japan: 6 GW USA: 4 GW Germany: 3.3 GW Table 2: 20 Largest Additions of Capacities in MW Year MW 1 Italy Germany Germany Germany Germany Italy China USA Spain China Italy Germany USA France 04 February Paris 1759 Page 9 15 Japan

10 Market Share per Region: From Europe to Asia From Europe to the World February Paris Page 10

11 From off-grid to Utility-Scale Source: IEA PVPS / EPIA 04 February Paris Page 11

12 PV Market Drivers 4 February 2014, Paris Page 12

13 Drivers to PV Market Development China: FiT Japan: FiT USA: Tax breaks & net-metering Germany: FiT and SC 04 February Paris Page 13

14 EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW Grid Parity and Competitiveness source: IEA PVPS Page 16

15 What does «competitive» means? Grid Parity Mark Competitiveness Mark Uncompetitive PV Partial competitiveness Competitiveness PV LCOE Compensable Retail electricity Prices Feed-in tariffs Self-consumption bonus Net-metering with bonus Direct incentives Feed-in export tariffs Natural Self-consumption Direct incentives Net-metering Natural Self-consumption Wholesale prices for exports source: EPIA / IEA PVPS - Gaetan Masson Page 15

16 GERMANY UK FRANCE SPAIN ITALY IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014 PV Competitiveness on Electricity Market LCOE Utility-scale PV 1 EUR/WP 6,8% WACC - 20 years Electricity Market Price Merit order effect not considered 0.16 LCOE Ground Mounted - 1 EUR/Wp LCOE GM February Paris Page 17

17 PV Market Trends 4 February 2014, Paris Page 18

18 IEA Solar Workshop Roadmap 2014 PV in Europe (2012) Page 19

19 Stagnating Europe 10 to 11 GW 04 February Paris Page 20

20 MARKET EVOLUTION 5% Page 21

21 IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop PV In the World (2012) Page 22

22 A Growing Global PV Market > 35 GW Page 23

23 PV in the Global Electricity Mix 135 GW in TWh 0.8 % of the Global Electricity Demand. Table 14: Possible Share of PV Electricity in 2020 and 2035 IEA 35 GW in Current IEA 450 Today 0.5 % Policies Scenario scenario IEA Current Policies scenario IEA 450 Scenario 30 GW a year 310 GW / 375 TWh 1.3 % 1.4 % 760 GW / 1000 TWh 2.5 % 3.1 % 60 GW a year 520 GW / 620 TWh 2.1 % 2.3 % 1420 GW / 1850 TWh 4.6 % 5.8 % 100 GW a year 800 GW / 960 TWh 3.3 % 3.6 % 2300 GW / 3000 TWh 7.4 % 9.4 % 04 February Paris Page 24

24 Conclusions 135 GW installed 2013 was another record year. Still PV produces less than 1% of the World Electricity Consumption The market is still heavily dependent on support policies The growth in 2013 was fulled by 2 countries in Asia: Japan and China (>50%) Europe s growth has been fueled mainly by 2 countries: Germany: 36 GW Italy: 18 GW (67%) The post-incentives era will see two separate sets of segments developing: - An energy-savings driven market for prosumers - A power generation market for utility-scale PV Challenges are numerous and complex: grid and electricity market Integration, profitability of incumbent players, Will 2014 be the year of a widespread development of PV? 04 February Paris Page 25

25 THANK YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION This document was presented by Gaëtan Masson European Photovoltaic Industry Association Renewable Energy House Rue d Arlon 63-67, 1040 Brussels - Belgium T +32 (0) F +32 (0) info@epia.org -

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