«Money for Nothing. The invasion of Renewables» Structural changes in the Italian Power Market

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1 «Money for Nothing The invasion of Renewables» Structural changes in the Italian Power Market 21 January 214 FABRIZIO RINALDI Director Edison Trading

2 Italian power prices remain high compared to Central Europe 2

3 due to different fundamentals, which cannot be compensated for by market coupling Hydro 2% 27% UK 41% 9% 8% 29% 18% Germany 22% Nuclear Coal Lignite Natural Gas Fuel oil Wind 12% France Switzerland 36% 59% 35% Hungary 14% 46% 11% 23% Romania Solar Others 75% 31% 2% 11% 18% 15% 12% 23% Spain 46% 15% 23% Italy 26% Greece 7% 6%

4 The boom of Photovoltaic is unprecedented 3 Renewables installed capacity GW PVS Wind Geothermo Bioenergy After a significant increase of gas powered capacity, driven by favourable margins, the PV capacity has taken off, but as a result of magnanimous subsidies. Renewables are now a substantial component of installed capacity.

5 but power Demand collapsed Power demand in Italy TWh % 5% % 5% 1% Demand YoY growth (rhs) Combination of low demand and increased capacity lead to an excessive reserve margin, whose cost is born by producers.additionally, The peak/off peak ratio collapsed, together with seasonality, eroding CCGT s intrinsic value.

6 Prices : down, down down 12, PUN vs ITEC 1, 8, 6, 4, 2,, PUN ITEC 6

7 Supply-demand balance: summer 213 Price dependent offers can be a residual component on the supply stack. Need of higher modulation 7

8 The supply curve in mid july 28 Merit Ordine Order Thursday di merito 17/7/28 ore hour UPV TG serbatoio/bacino pompaggio olio e policombustibile geotermico fluente eolico CCGT carbone altro Bid 117 GW 8

9 and on the same day 5 years later Merit Ordine Order di Thursday merito 18/7/213 ore hour solare UPV TG serbatoio/bacino pompaggio olio e policombustibile geotermico fluente eolico CCGT carbone altro Bid 57,4 GW 9

10 And demand is not silent 35 Curve Demand/supply di domanda e offerta curve Mercoledì Thursday 17/7/28 ore hour Supply Offerta Demand Domanda 1 5 1

11 Demand is flatter and more price sensitive 35 Demand/offer Curve Demand/supply di domanda curve e Thursday offerta curve Mercoledì Thursday 18/7/213 18/7/213 17/7/213 hour 13 ore hour Offerta Supply Domanda Demand

12 CCGTs load factor collapsed Gas fired power stations are getting virtually uneconomical 12

13 Evolution of spark spread in Italy : CO2 is irrelevant 1 PUN Peakload Vs. Spark Spread 14 8 PUN Baseload Vs. Dark Spread Yearly spark PUN PK ITEC PUN PK Yearly dark PUN BL API2 PUN BL (rhs) 1 Clean spreads 1 Clean spreads Spark Dark clean spark on PK clean dark on BL Spark Dark clean dark on BL Spark@PSV Dark clean 13

14 Gas price and zone are decisive for spark spread Spark spread 212 Baseload Spark spread 212 Picco BASE Nord Sud Sicilia Sardegna Centro 2 PICCO Nord Sud Sicilia Sardegna Centro Price paid for gas can affect dramatically the spark spread, and long term contracts have been unsustainable for power producers, leading to contracts renegotiations. But even the zone is an important factor. 14

15 The new wave of regulation Regulation is playing an increasing role in commodity markets Capital and liquidity requirements will likely drive liquidity down Reporting obligations will be a heavy burden, especially for smaller players Higher transaction costs (bid/ask widening and cost of additional capital) Higher basis risks Portfolio optimization will become harder, leaving higher risk sitting in utilities 15

16 Easy money for R.E.S. The renewables revolution is already here : in 212 already 175 GW of wind and PV installed capacity in Europe The objective of arriving to 8% emission free generation by 25 would require additional huge investments in renewables, which could become unsustainable Cost is already high. For Italy it reached a total of 27 bn during the period Incentives in most cases are not based on market based mechanisms, and with no market risk Cost of energy is contributing to make Europe less competitive, especially compared to USA Keeping low prices for energy, favouring green power generation whilst maintaining security of supply is an impracticable combination of inconsistent objectives 16

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