Wind power: the world's leading sustainable energy. Madrid 11/01/2012

Transcription

1 Wind power: the world's leading sustainable energy Madrid 11/01/2012

2 Table of contents The electricity sector s challenges Key drivers of Wind Energy Disadvantages of Wind Energy: myth or reality? Economic competitiveness of Wind Energy New market opportunities Forecasts of Wind Power installations Conclusions 2

3 Conventional electricity generation faces some structural challenges and renewable energy is a large contributor to the solution Challenges Solution Benefits Oil reserves exhaustion Economic Energy supply security and independence Renewable energy Social Environmental impact Environmental 3

4 Table of contents The electricity sector s challenges Key drivers of Wind Energy Disadvantages of Wind Energy: myth or reality? Economic competitiveness of Wind Energy New market opportunities Forecasts of Wind Power installations Conclusions 4

5 Key drivers of wind energy NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY ENERGY AFFORDABILITY ECONOMIC & SOCIAL BENEFITS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION Self- sufficiency Cost effective Efficient use of land Clean unlike: Local resource Security of supply - less risk of shortages and price volatility through Diversification of supply Less exposure to adverse geopolitical situations Price predictability More generation during coldweather months Downward cost evolution (LCOE) Flexible in size Compatible with other uses No water consumption Short construction time Contribution to local development Lower NIMBY effect Thermal - burns fossil fuels contributing to climate change Nuclear - uses vast quantities of fresh water & generates toxic waste Abundant & Inexhaustible Wind is free and unlimited Not transferable 5

6 Table of contents The electricity sector s challenges Key drivers of Wind Energy Disadvantages of Wind Energy: myth or reality? Economic competitiveness of Wind Energy New market opportunities Forecasts of Wind Power installations Conclusions 6

7 Disadvantages of wind energy: myth or reality? 1) Heavily subsidized? Fossil-fuel consumers worldwide received c. 6 times more government subsidies -$409 billion in than the renewable-energy industry -$66 billion in (1) 2) Large backup power needs? 20% backup needs to maintain reliability in the grid or 1 MW of flexible backup per 5MW of renewable energy (2) 3) Inefficient use of the wind power (15%-20% of the total) due to intermittency, forecasting weakness and quality of wind electricity? True only for old WTG models - In Spain, 60% of wind power has been integrated by the System Operator New advanced models solve most technical problems -voltage control and dips-, improve performance, and are in the process of solving additional ones: frequency control, improved wind generation forecasts 4) Higher than average grid investment? All new power installations need new lines to evacuate the new generation Wind developers look for sites near existing lines to reduce investment needs 5) Large environmental impact -visual, noise, birdlife-? More environmentally friendly than conventional forms like thermal or nuclear power (1) According to the chief adviser of the IEA during presentation of the World Energy Outlook (2) According to the IEA s World Energy Outlook

8 Table of contents The electricity sector s challenges Key drivers of Wind Energy Disadvantages of Wind Energy: myth or reality? Economic competitiveness of Wind Energy New market opportunities Forecasts of Wind Power installations Conclusions 8

9 Economic competitiveness of onshore Wind Energy 1. COE definition: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) 2. Factors affecting the evolution of onshore wind cost of energy (COE) Onshore wind turbine prices Hub height, power curve and capacity factor O&M costs 3. Fair comparison with other energies including emission costs 4. External costs by technology: wind energy has the lowest external costs 5. Competitiveness vis-à-vis other technologies 6. Fully competitive LCOE in Gamesa s Cost of Energy (COE) strategy 9

10 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) - The right measurement and comparison indicator Source: The Economics of Wind Energy, EWEA Report

11 Factors affecting the evolution of COE: onshore wind turbine prices Average cost fell in real terms from 2 MM/MW in 1980s to 0.88 MM/MW in ONSHORE WIND TURBINE PRICES: (EUR M/MW) 2.0 Denmark and Germany Global 1.0 7% ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 MW 11

12 Factors affecting the evolution of COE: average hub height and power curve Bigger hub heights and increasing efficiency of wind turbines contribute to improve the capacity factor of the wind farms 80 AVERAGE TURBINE HUB HEIGHT (METRES) 100% AVERAGE TURBINE POWER CURVE (%) 60 75% % % % m/s 12

13 Factors affecting the evolution of COE: average capacity factor The capacity factor of the global onshore wind system increased from 21 % in 1984 to 34 % in % 30% AVERAGE CAPACITY FACTOR, (%) 34% Efficiency and hub height as designers learn how to capture energy in poor wind conditions, improve efficiency at normal wind conditions and, 25% Ef f iciency only 24% build larger turbines with taller towers to access and harness higher wind speeds 20%

14 Factors affecting the evolution of COE: average O&M cost Operation and maintenance costs have decreased in real terms on average from 50/MWh in the 1980S to 11/MWh today AVERAGE OPERATION & MAINTENANCE COST (OPEX) /MWh

15 Wind Energy economic competitiveness AVERAGE LCOE OF ONSHORE WIND: /MWh 1000 LCOE of onshore wind in windy locations has fallen in real terms from 200/MWh to 52/MWh Denmark and Germany Global 14% 14% decline for every doubling of installed capacity Only 6/MWh higher than the current cost of a combined cycle gas turbine plant excluding the cost of carbon emissions Bloomberg predicts the cost of wind energy to drop 12% in the next five years ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 MW IEA (1) foresees onshore wind energy to have a LCOE (at 5% discount rate) of as low as USD48 /MWh in 2015; USD101/MWh for offshore wind energy (1) IEA - Projected Costs of Generating Electricity,

16 Fair comparison with other energies including emission costs Schematic representation of Break-Even with and without Emission costs Assessments of the costs of future paths of RE deployment have to consider the whole range of costs, including external costs typically climate change and health impacts due to air pollution- and co-benefits Although the uncertainty is relatively high, in most cases RE sources have rather low external costs assessed on a lifecycle basis when compared to fossil fuel-based technologies Source: IEA 2008 in IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources of the United Nations,

17 Wind energy has the lowest external costs among all technologies Source: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources of the United Nations,

18 Wind energy has the lowest external costs among all technologies Source: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources of the United Nations,

19 Competitiveness vis-à-vis other technologies The internalization of CO2 costs, the upward trend of fossil fuels, and more efficient wind farm designs are helping wind energy achieve grid parity, with LCOE only slightly above that of coal Source: BNEF, Research note on LCOE: Q

20 Competitiveness vis-à-vis other technologies In areas of excellent resource, wind energy is already competing with conventional fossil-fuel technologies Brazil, Texas (USA), Oaxaca (Mexico), or Chile In Europe, wholesale prices reflect overcapacity and the fact that most facilities are fully depreciated. This affects wind energy and all other new power plants Source: David Milborrow, 2011: Annual Power Costs Comparison Electricity demand growth, coupled with the dismantling of old or environmentally damaging facilities will improve wind energy competitiveness over the next two decades 20

21 Competitiveness vis-à-vis other technologies Levelized cost of electricity for commercially available RE technologies at 3%, 7% and 10% discount rates. Source: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources of the United Nations,

22 Fully competitive LCOE in 2016 (1) The COE of an average onshore wind farm will be fully competitive with coal, gas and nuclear power plants by 2016 (1) The cost of wind energy will drop 12 percent in the next five years because of gains in output efficiency and lower equipment prices Energy from onshore wind farms is becoming cheaper, driven by turbines that drop 7% in price every time installed capacity doubles and designs that have improved output efficiency to 34% "The public perception of wind power tends to be that it is environmentally friendly, but expensive and intermittent. That is out of date, in the best locations, where generation is already costcompetitive with fossil-fuel electricity, and that will be the case for the majority of new onshore turbines installed worldwide by 2016 Justin Wu, lead wind analyst at the researcher The levelized CoE, without subsidies, in windy locations has already dropped to 52/ MWh from 200/ MWh in This is only 6 more expensive than gas-fired power (1) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: Grid Parity for Onshore Wind, 17 November

23 Gamesa s strategy fully aligned with COE reduction Cost of Energy reduction target of 30% by 2015 to be achieved through extended product range, higher availability and continuous innovation Economic target Impact of levers on CoE (illustrative) -30% TODAY -12% -8% % COE today Product Fleet COE target Continuous range and performance 2013 innovation performance and availability Source: Gamesa Business Plan COE target

24 Gamesa s COE strategy Optimized product portfolio G97-2 MW, the first product of a fully optimized product portfolio: top performance for low wind sites More energy production than the current market leader in the 2 MW (1) Class III C. 14% more energy production than the current G90-2 MW Class III New aerodynamic design, increased swept area (+16%) and reduced noise Designed for class III (low wind) where more than 50% of the demand is expected From design to industrialization in 18 months: already installed in China, Europe, India and the U.S. First orders received (120MW) (1) 2MW category range: 1.8 MW MW 24

25 Gamesa s COE strategy New value added O&M services GPA 99: 4 initiatives set up to improve availability and fleet performance GPA 99 PROGRAM DESCRIPTION (EXAMPLES) IMPACT DESIGN FOR RELIABILITY o Integration of field knowledge to change WTG design o Availability without maintenance o Reliability Centered Maintenance COMPONENTS REPAIR o In-house repairing, reconditioning of small & large components o Extension of WTG's useful life o Reduction of WTG downtime o New source of income o Components stock management close to field MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS o Improve on large components logistics o Reduction of running costs o Process automation and innovation o Decreased risk of large interventions o Scheduled maintenance in low wind conditions o Customized maintenance programs SERVICES SOURCING o Performance based Contracts for sub contractors o Lower manpower costs o Better service levels o Training and certification programs Source: Gamesa; Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 25

26 Table of contents 1 The electricity sector s challenges 2 Key drivers of Wind Energy 3 Disadvantages of Wind Energy: myth or reality? 4 Economic competitiveness of Wind Energy 5 New market opportunities 6 Forecasts of Wind Power installations 7 Conclusions 26

27 New market opportunities Flexibility and modular capability of wind farms could offer new solutions for the electricity system given increasing difficulties in developing new electricity infrastructure (HV lines and thermal generation) because of local opposition, environmental approvals and NIMBY effect Wind energy will evolve into new applications: wind energy with storage, hybrid systems, off grid systems, self-consumption, repowering The core business remains the construction and operation of wind farms, but market niches will help diversify operations and provide suitable responses to a multitude of new situations: saturated markets, congested grids, rural and isolated areas, urban environment, environmental sensitive areas WIND ENERGY PENETRATION Wind energy with storage Small-size wind farms Repowering Large scale offshore wind farms Conventional onshore wind farms Off grid applications Self-consumption Hybrid systems COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT 27

28 Offshore wind energy National policies are doubling efforts to convert offshore wind energy into a major source of electricity production in the medium term: UK: up to 18 GW by 2020 Germany: up to 25 GW by 2030 France: 6 GW by 2020 China: 5GW by 2015 and 30GW by 2030 Offshore costs strongly determined by the distance of the installation from the shore and the water depth Technical potential for offshore wind energy generation at different water depths in 2030 for Europe (EEA, 2009). Cost dispersion in existing projects is misleading, since it includes very early designs and demonstration projects (non driven by economic considerations). A range of 3-4MM/MW of CAPEX seems reasonable, under normal conditions 28

29 Repowering Repowering implies replacing old and small-size turbines for newer more efficient ones. Given the relative newness of the wind energy business, this segment is marginal today, but will grow in importance in future years especially in countries with a very mature wind industry Advantages are significant: Optimal use of the best locations, which have been exploited first (higher capacity factors, better access conditions, proximity to evacuation lines). Lower environmental impact: less wind turbines produce the same amount of energy, occupying smaller pieces of land, no need to build accesses and other infrastructure. It also avoids the occupation of new areas for electricity production. Main markets for repowering (the first three with legislation in place): Germany Spain Denmark US 29

30 Repowering market in Spain Early deployment of wind energy in Spain will favor repowering. Current legislation awards an extra premium of 7/MWh until end of 2017 (over conventional premium or FIT) to wind farms commissioned prior to 31/12/2001 The Plan de Energías Renovables expects 10% of installations with 15 years or more & all installations after 20 years of functioning. Repowering could even surpass new onshore wind energy installations after 2019 securing healthy WTG demand despite market maturity MW eligible to benefit from repowering Year Repowering MW , , , , , , , Year MW commissioned 13 years before Cum MW commissioned 13 years before or more Source: Own elaboration. Source: PER

31 Repowering market in Germany Repowering already constitutes a profitable business opportunity in Germany and its importance will grow in coming years Law EEG 2009 and the Law recently approved EEG 2012 grant a repowering bonus of 5/MWh on top of conventional feed-in tariff for wind turbines commissioned up to the end of 2001, when the new turbines are of at least double capacity than the old ones Source: WindEnergy Study

32 Self consumption and off-grid installations New opportunities will appear for the wind energy as the electricity systems evolve : The future electricity systems will rely more and more on distributed generation, as well as on self-consumption. This is an excellent opportunity for wind energy, which can help consumers to partially cover their energy demand through dedicated installations, normally small size wind farms Additionally, developing countries, islands, isolated areas would benefit from wind energy, mixed or hybrid with other fuels, as wind energy is cheaper than the fuel normally used in those developments In all cases, the overall system will benefit from very low grid losses and a better demand management; consumers will benefit from lower and controlled costs Spain has just approved a new legislative framework for small wind. Other countries like the USA, Italy and the UK are pioneers in this field, and have put in place regulations allowing wind farms dedicated to self consumption. It is expected that most electricity systems will evolve in the same line Source: smartgridchile.com 32

33 Table of contents 1 The electricity sector s challenges 2 Key drivers of Wind Energy 3 Disadvantages of Wind Energy: myth or reality? 4 Economic competitiveness of Wind Energy 5 New market opportunities 6 Forecasts of Wind Power installations 7 Conclusions 33

34 Forecasts of new wind power installed worldwiderenewable energies The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has compiled 164 recent scenarios on the future deployment of Renewable Energy and the majority of the scenarios indicate a substantial increase in the deployment of Renewable Energy by 2030, 2050 and beyond In 2008, total RE production stood at roughly 12.9% of total primary energy supply. More than half of the scenarios show a contribution from RE in excess of a 17% share of primary energy supply in 2030, rising to more than 27% in 2050 The scenarios with the highest RE shares reach approximately 43% in 2030 and 77% in In other words, it is likely that RE will have a significantly larger role (in absolute and relative numbers) in he global energy system in the future than today Scenarios generally indicate that growth in RE will be widespread around the world. Although the precise distribution of RE deployment across regions varies across scenarios, they are largely consistent in indicating widespread growth in RE deployment around the globe Source: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources of the United Nations,

35 Forecasts of new wind power installed worldwide There is a consensus that wind energy will play a predominant role in electricity production in all regions of the world, regardless of present adverse circumstances In 2008, wind energy installations accounted for 3% of global capacity installed; by 2020 the International Energy Agency expects that this percentage will be 12%, which implies steep growth rates over the current decade All regions in the world have large untapped wind energy resources, both onshore and offshore. In recent years the focus on European markets has been shifting away towards America and Asia The four fast-growing emerging economies (China, India, Mexico, Brazil) are making very rapid progress in wind power installations likely to continue in future decades In addition, a new wave of investments is coming from other emerging countries in Latin America and Asia (Chile, Peru, Uruguay, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, former Soviet Union Republics). Magreb countries, once current political instability is over, are to become significant demanders. Finally, the African potential is starting to wake up (e.g. recent tender of South Africa, 300-MW project of Kenya) 35

36 Forecasts of new wind power installed worldwide According to the GWEC, MW acc in 2015 = 4x MW acc in 2008 CAGR=21% Source: GWEC, Global Wind Report

37 Forecasts of new wind power installed worldwide According to BTM MW installed in 2015 = 2 x MW installed in 2010 CAGR 21% Source: BTM Consult, World Market Update

38 Forecasts of new wind power installed worldwide According to MAKE MW installed in 2016 =2 x MW installed 2008 CAGR 10% Source: MAKE Consulting, Global Wind Power Forecast Q

39 Forecasts of new wind power installed worldwide According to the IEA MW acc in 2035 =9 x MW acc 2008 CAGR =8.3% Source: AIE, WEO 2010, New Policies Scenario. AIE forecasts :

40 Forecasts of new wind power installed worldwide According to the AIE MW acc in 2035 =9 x MW acc 2008 CAGR =8.3% Source: AIE, WEO 2010, New Policies Scenario. 40

41 Table of contents 1 The electricity sector s challenges 2 Key drivers of Wind Energy 3 Disadvantages of Wind Energy: myth or reality? 4 Economic competitiveness of Wind Energy 5 New market opportunities 6 Forecasts of Wind Power installations 7 Conclusions 41

42 Sound long-term growth fundamentals of wind power remain intact Wind power remains key to solve conventional electricity generation structural challenges -energy scarcity, dependency and security Wind is free, local, abundant and inexhaustible. The COE of an average onshore wind farm will be fully competitive with coal, gas and nuclear power plants by 2016 The levelized COE, without subsidies, in windy locations has already dropped to 52/ MWh from 200 MWh in This is only 6 more expensive than gas-fired power. In areas of excellent resource (Brazil, Texas, Oaxaca, or Chile) wind energy is already competing with conventional fossil-fuel technologies Gamesa s strategy is fully aligned with COE reduction: 20% by 2013 and 30% by 2015 Different independent organizations estimate double digit CAGR in wind installations in the coming 5 years and high single digit CAGR in the long term (to 2035). All sources agree on the increasing relevance of wind power generation in the energy mix Although onshore wind construction/operation will remain the industry's core business, wind power flexibility and modularity will translate into new applications (offshore, small wind farms, self consumption, hybrid systems ) 42

43 Questions & Answers Muchas Gracias Thank you 谢谢 43

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