Outlook of Brazil seconomyand ForeignTrade - November Tatiana Lacerda Prazeres Secretary of Foreign Trade of Brazil
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1 Outlook of Brazil seconomyand ForeignTrade - November 2011 Tatiana Lacerda Prazeres Secretary of Foreign Trade of Brazil
2 BrazilianEconomy Outlook
3 Outlook for thebrazilianeconomy Dynamic domestic market; Growing middle class; Great investment opportunities (Oil and Gas, Infrastructure, World Cup, Olympic Games); Sound macroeconomic policies; solid democratic regime.
4 World Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012 GDP Growth(%) * 2012* World -0,7 5,1 4,0 4,0 Developed economies -3,7 3,1 1,6 1,9 - USA -3,5 3,0 2,8 2,9 - Euro zone ,8 1,6 1,1 Developing economies 2,8 7,3 6,4 6,1 - Asia 7,2 9,5 8,2 8,0 - China 9,2 10,3 9,5 9,0 - Latin America and the Caribbean -1,7 6,1 4,5 4,0 - Middle East and North Africa 2,6 4,4 4,0 3,6 - Sub- Saharan Africa 2,8 5,4 5,2 5,8 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, September-2011; (*) forecast
5 World Economic Outlook Country China 9,5 9 India 7,5 8 Russia 4,2 4 Mexico 4,3 4 Brazil 4 5 Germany 3,3 1,8 Canada 2,8 2,6 France 2 1,6 United States 1,8 2,4 United Kingdom 1,1 2,2 Italy 0,8 1,1 Spain 0,8 1 Japan -0,3 3,6 Emerging economies will grow stronger Source: IIF (August) Brazilian data: Ministry of Finance
6 BrazilianUnemploymentRate Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics(IBGE)
7 Improvementin incomedistribution (household income) 55% 50% 56% 37% 39% 28% 8% 11% 16% * Above U$3.130 U$1.560 to U$3.130 Below U$1.560 Source: Ministry of Finance
8 BrazilianGDP growth-forecast BrazilwillovertaketheUK as 6thlargesteconomy, reaching a GDP of US$2,44 trillion Brazilwillloseoneposition toindia, ranking 7th Brazilwillregain6thplacein theyearit willhost the World Cup, also overtaking France Brazil will rank 5th largest economy of the world. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
9 Challenges Increase industrial competitiveness and innovationaiming at economic, social and environmental sustainability; Increase investments in infrastructure; Improve formal educationandworkforce qualification, raising productivity levels.
10 BRAZIL ForeignTrade
11 BrazilianTrade Balance January-November/ US$ billion FOB Δ% 2011/10 Exports 233,9 181,0 28,7 Imports 207,9 166,2 24,6 Surplus 26,0 14,8 74,6 Trade Flow 441,9 347,2 26,7 Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
12 Brazilian Exports Main Products January-November/ US$ million FOB Value Δ% 2011/10 Share% Iron ore ,3 16,3 Crude oil ,1 8,2 Soybeans ,4 6,7 Raw cane sugar ,9 4,6 Coffee grain ,4 3,1 Frozen chicken meat ,9 2,7 Soybean meal and residues ,4 2,3 Cellulose ,7 2,0 Semi-finished products, iron/steel ,4 1,8 Passenger cars ,7 1,7 Beef ,8 1,7 Parts and pieces of vehicles ,0 1,6 Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
13 BrazilianMajor ExportPartners January-November/ US$ million FOB Value Δ% 2011/10 Part. % Asia ,5 30,1 Latin America and the Caribbean ,6 22,1 - Mercosul ,8 11,0 - other LA and the Caribbean ,8 11,2 European Union ,3 20,7 United States ,6 10,0 Middle East ,8 4,9 Africa ,5 4,7 Eastern Europe ,0 2,1 Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
14 Brazilian Imports Main Products January-November/ US$ million FOB Value Δ% 2011/10 Share% Crude oil ,2 6,3 Passenger cars ,6 5,2 Fuel oils ,7 3,6 Parts/pieces of motor and vehicles ,2 2,8 Medicines ,3 2,6 Naftas ,2 2,2 Integrated circuits ,1 2,0 Coal ,9 1,9 Transmission or reception devices ,9 1,7 Potassium clorite ,0 1,5 Motors and generators ,9 1,4 Heterocyclic compounds ,3 1,3 Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
15 BrazilianMajor ImportPartners January-November/ US$ million FOB Value Δ% 2011/10 Part. % Asia ,6 31,0 European Union ,3 20,4 Latin America and the Caribbean ,8 16,7 - Mercosul ,8 8,6 - other LA and the Caribbean ,8 8,1 United States ,8 15,1 Africa ,0 6,9 Middle East ,3 2,7 Eastern Europe ,0 2,3 Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
16 BRAZIL-EU ForeignTrade
17 Trade Balance Brazil-EU 2002 to 2010 and Jan-Nov/ US$ billion FOB Exportação / Exports Importação / Imports Saldo / Surplus 27,0 24,7 31,0 46,4 43,1 40,4 39,1 36,2 34,0 29,2 26,7 48,5 42,4 38,5 35,7 18,8 15,6 13,5 13,1 5,8 2,1 16,0 8,7 8,8 18,2 10,8 20,2 13,7 10,2 4,8 4,0 2,9 6, Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade Jan-Nov/10 Jan-Nov/11
18 Brazil-EU Trade Balance January-November US$ billion FOB Δ% 2011/10 Exports 48,5 38,5 25,3 Imports 42,4 35,7 18,3 Surplus 6,1 2,8 - Trade Flow 90,9 74,2 22,5 Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
19 Main Products Exported totheeu January-November/ US$ million Fob Value Δ% 2011/10 Share% Iron ore ,8 15,5 Coffee grain ,2 8,1 Soybean meal and residues ,2 7,7 Soybeans ,1 5,3 Crude oil ,1 5,1 Wood pulp ,9 4,3 Orange juice ,2 2,3 Gold non-monetary ,2 2,3 Smoking in leaves and waste ,7 2,2 Airplane ,5 1,8 Semi-finished products, iron/steel ,0 1,7 Fuel oils ,5 1,7 Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
20 Brazilian Exports to the EU by Category Share % Manufactureds 46% Basics 33% Semimanufact. 21% Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
21 MainEU Marketsfor Brazilian Exports Janeiro-November US$ billion FOB Value Δ% 2011/10 Share% 1 Netherlands 12,7 38,6 26,3 2 Germany 8,3 13,7 17,0 3 Italy 5,0 34,5 10,3 4 United Kingdom 4,7 14,6 9,8 5 Spain 4,1 13,9 8,4 6 France 4,0 31,5 8,3 7 Belgium 3,6 14,8 7,5 8 Portugal 1,9 49,7 3,9 9 Finland 0,7 53,0 1,3 10 Sweden 0,5 62,8 1,0
22 Main Products Imported from theeu January-November/ US$ million Fob Value Δ% 2011/10 Share% Medicines ,3 7,2 Parts and pieces of motor and vehicles ,2 6,3 Passenger cars ,9 3,6 Heterocyclic compounds ,5 2,6 Electrical appliances ,2 2,5 Instruments and appliances for measuring ,1 2,4 Bearings and gears ,4 2,3 Pumps, fans and parts 816 3,1 1,9 Insecticides ,9 1,9 Engines and generators ,2 1,5 Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
23 Brazilian Imports from the EU by Category Share % Basics 9% Semimanufact. 2% Manufactureds 89% Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
24 MainSuppliersin theeu for Brazilian Imports January-November US$ billion FOB Value Δ% 2011/10 Share% 1 Germany 14,0 22,7 32,9 2 Italy 5,7 30,6 13,5 3 France 4,9 12,2 11,6 4 Spain 3,0 23,3 7,2 5 United Kingdom 3,0 2,9 7,1 6 Sweden 2,0 30,9 4,8 7 Netherlands 1,9 18,3 4,6 8 Belgium 1,7 26,0 4,0 9 Austria 1,4 5,7 3,2 10 Portugal 0,7 40,6 1,7
25 BRAZIL-UE Bilateral Investment
26 Foreign Direct Investmentin Brazil US$ Billion ,9 33,7 30,4 22, ,8 In 2010, Brazilwas the 5th main FDI destination afterus, China, Hong Kong and Belgium. Source: Brazilian Central Bank
27 EU Foreign Direct Investmentin Brazil Stock US$ million , ,9 114,4 112,5 119, The maineu investorsin Brazilare are Holland(18% of BrazilianFDI), Spain (11,2%), Germany(8,1%) andfrance (7,0%). Source: Brazilian Central Bank
28 MERCOSUR-EUEU FTA
29 MERCOSUR-EUROPEAN EUROPEAN UNION Freetrade between Mercosur andeu will certainly bea WIN-WIN situation. - Modestprogressin the text negotiations sofar, even both parties having strong political mandates (EU-Brazil Summit); - Key issues: bilateral safeguards, infant industry, rules of origin, exportsubsidies andgsp as thebase rate for tariff reduction. - Previous agreement onthe text willbecrucial for preparing Mercosur offers.
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