DOMINION GLOBALIZATION WORKSHOP

Transcription

1 DOMINION GLOBALIZATION WORKSHOP Financial Sector Dennis Encarnation Harvard University For more information, please contact me at

2 SERVICES Financial Services & Capital Markets Topics: 1. Sources of Funds a. Household Savings b. Corporate Savings c. Government Savings d. Foreign Savings 2. Intermediation of Funds a. Debt vs. Equity b. Debt: (1) Bank Loans vs. Bonds (2) Foreign vs. Domestic (3) Long-Term vs. Short-Term c. Equity: (1) Unbundled (Portfolio) vs. Bundled (FDI) (2) Foreign vs. Domestic (3) Long-Term vs. Short-Term 3. Uses of Funds a. Macro b. Micro

3 SOURCES: SAVINGS INVESTMENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, 2007 (US$ billion) China India Korea Thailand Indonesia Japan Singapore Taiwan Malaysia Hong Kong 40.9% 32.5% 29.0% 28.2% 24.1% 23.5% 22.7% 21.2% 20.9% 20.3% US 16.4% Euro Zone 20.0% UK 18.2% Source: THE ECONOMIST, investment=domestic + foreign savings - capital outflows - leakages

4 FOREIGN SAVINGS: CROSS-BORDER FLOWS Source: McKinsey, 29 April 2008 (available on the IGA328 course website). outside of the North Atlantic, where most cross-border capital flows, Asia is the 3rd largest source & destination...

6 INTERMEDIATION:DEBT VS. EQUITY Source: McKinsey, 29 April 2008 (available on the IGA328 course website). the earlier preeminence of bank lending is today matched by bonds & exceeded by equity--resulting in a 2:1 debt (bank lending plus bonds) to equity ratio, down from 3:1 25 years ago

7 LOCATION: CAPITAL MARKETS Source: McKinsey, 29 April 2008 (available on the IGA328 course website). this 2:1 global ratio of debt (bank loans plus corporate bonds) to equity varies widely across capital markets, as does the growing preeminence of equity and bonds over bank lending.

8 INTERMEDIATION: EQUITY MARKETS Source: McKinsey, 29 April 2008 (available on the IGA328 course website). equity markets play an increasingly important role in financing all economies, and a disproportionately large role in India

9 INTERMEDIATION: STOCK MARKETS USA JAPAN STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION: TOP 10, 2003 VS (US$ billion) END ,266 3, USA CHINA END ,947 6, UK 2, JAPAN 4, FRANCE 1, UK 3, GERMANY 1, FRANCE 2, CANADA CANADA 2, SPAIN GERMANY 2, SWITZERLAND INDIA 1, HONG KONG SPAIN 1, CHINA RUSSIA 1,503 Source: THE ECONOMIST, 2006 & Asia hosts some of the world s most rapidly growing stock markets, at least through 2007

10 INTERMEDIATION: CORPORATE BONDS Source: McKinsey, 29 April 2008 (available on the IGA328 course website). across Asia, bonds play a modest role in corporate financing, in marked contrast to the industrial countries of the North Atlantic

11 INTERMEDIATION: BANK LENDING Source: McKinsey, 29 April 2008 (available on the IGA328 course website). absent a large corporate bond market, bank loans play a very large role financing emerging economies, especially in China--in marked contrast to the U.S.

12 INTERMEDIATION: BANKS & INSURANCE SINOPEC STATE GRID CHINA NAT L PETROLEUM INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL BANK CHINA MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK BANK OF CHINA CHINA: TOP 10 ENTERPRISES, 2008 (revenue in US$ billion) AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID Source: FORTUNE, banks (& insurance companies) play a large role in the Chinese economy, as they also do in India & other emerging markets

13 INTERMEDIATION: BANKS & INSURANCE TOYOTA HONDA HITACHI NISSAN JAPAN: TOP 10 ENTERPRISES, 2008 (revenue in US$ billion) NIPPON TELEGRAPH & TELEPHONE MATSUSHITA SONY TOSHIBA NIPPON LIFE NIPPON LIFE INSURANCE Source: FORTUNE, by contrast, in Japan & other industrialized economies, banks & insurance companies play a less prominent role, which has declined over time

14 DEBT: SHORT-TERM VS. LONG-TERM for banks, short-term debt is often preferred, especially in emerging markets, both to lower costs and to mitigate risks to lenders

15 INTERMEDIATION: COST OF DEBT 3-month interest rates Japan Singapore Hong Kong Taiwan Thailand Malaysia China Korea India Indonesia US Euro Zone UK January % 1.63% 2.50% 2.60% 3.50% 3.62% 4.50% 5.84% 7.08% 8.07% 3.74% 4.29% 5.48% January % 0.56% 0.94% 1.15% 2.22% 2.58% 1.38% 2.96% 4.65% 10.79% 0.27% 2.12% 2.13% Source: THE ECONOMIST, January 2008 & January interest rates are falling, but not everywhere.

16 INTERMEDIATION:CROSS-BORDER FLOWS Source: McKinsey, bank lending, while important, has been eclipsed by a variety of portfolio flows.

17 INTERMEDIATION: FDI Source: The Economist, 31 January FDI flows are heavily concentrated within the OECD, followed by the BRICs & a few other NIEs.

18 INTERMEDIATION: FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DEBT IN EMERGING MARKETS: TOP 10, 2006 (US$ billion) CHINA RUSSIA TURKEY BRAZIL SOUTH KOREA MEXICO INDIA INDONESIA POLAND ARGENTINA Source: THE ECONOMIST, foreign debt remains an important means for tapping foreign savings

20 USES OF FUNDS: FX TRANSACTIONS weekly FX transactions = size of the annual US GDP

21 USES OF FUNDS: TRADE FINANCING Current account deficits require tapping foreign savings; current account surpluses create opportunities for foreign investment

22 USES: DOMESTIC INVESTMENT INVESTMENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, 2007 (US$ billion) China India Korea Thailand Indonesia Japan Singapore Taiwan Malaysia Hong Kong 40.9% 32.5% 29.0% 28.2% 24.1% 23.5% 22.7% 21.2% 20.9% 20.3% US 16.4% Euro Zone 20.0% UK 18.2% Source: THE ECONOMIST, investment=domestic + foreign savings - capital outflows - leakages