Sustainable Mobility: Issues Behind the Challenge

Transcription

1 Automotive Sustainable Mobility: Issues Behind the Challenge Philip Gott, Director Automotive Consulting, Global Insight, Inc. 6 October, 24 Schillersaal, Liederhalle Kultur und Kongresszentrum, Stuttgart Automotive Objectives: 1) Put the challenge in perspective 2) Categorize and catalogue areas of research focus 3) Suggest a partnership leading to harmonized solutions 1

2 Economic Growth Has and Will Continue to Alter the Global Balance of Economic Power and Consumption Nominal PPP per Capita GDP Level at Which Motorization Begins in Earnest Nominal Per Capita GDP At PPP ($s) Africa Middle East LAC China Japan Rest of Asia Emerging Europe Western Europe NAFTA Source: Global Insight 2 While Population Swells Millions Population 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, NAFTA Western Europe Emerging Europe Rest of Asia Japan China LAC Middle East Africa Source: Global Insight 3 2

3 The Sustainability Challenge: Total 23 Energy Demand Will Be 82% More than 199 Quadrillion BTU Global Energy Demand Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Other Source: US DOE projections to 225 extrapolated to 23 4 Including an >8% Increase in Demand for Transportation Related Energy by 23 MTOE Transportation Energy Demand 4, 3, 2, 1, NAFTA Western Europe Eastern Europe Rest of Asia Japan China S. America Middle East Africa (North plus Sub-Saharan) Source: Global Insight 5 3

4 Global CO 2 Emissions From Petroleum Will Increase 85% from 199 to 23 Billions Metric Tons, CO 2 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Global CO 2 Generation Oil Natural Gas Coal Mobility is responsible for the majority of the demand for petroleum On and off-highway Aircraft Marine Rail Assuming no change in energy-related laws after 1 Oct, 23 Source: US DOE projections to 225 extrapolated to 23 6 While Toxic Emissions Are Projected to Decline Toxic Emissions Generation Megatonnes / Yr NOx Dev NOx Emr CO Dev CO Emr VOC Dev VOC EMR PM Dev (RHS) PM EMR (RHS) Decline based on: Implementation of advanced emission standards with little lag between first introduction date and global adoption Proper maintenance of inuse fleet Life-of-vehicle solutions Source: Sustainable Mobility Project 7 4

5 There are 6 Major Sets of Technical Solutions: 3 Powertrain Technologies, 3 Energy Sources 1) Advanced Conventional Powertrains - Internal Combustion Engines - Hybrid Electric Vehicles 2) Advanced Alternative Electric Powertrains - Battery-Electric - Fuel Cell 3) Safety: Often the Price of Safety is Reduced Efficiency and Mobility - Active Safety = Crash Avoidance - Passive Safety = Crashworthy - New technology must not Compromise safety 4) Fossil Fuels - Non-Renewable, controlled supplies - Pollution - Greenhouse Gas 5) Bio Fuels - Production / Land Use - Infrastructure Needed 6) Ultimate Solutions? - Electricity? Hydrogen? - Sustainable sources - Production/Distribution Infrastructure - Storage 8 Advanced Conventional Powertrains Face Major Challenges For Their Entire Useful Life Diesel Fuel Injection >22 bar 6 pulses/cycle Fully flexible rate shaping <.2% variation in rated fuel quantity <.5% crank angle variation in timing Control of EGR rates under all conditions Model-based predictive control Fully flexible variable valve events Low sulfur/phosphorus lubricants Spark Ignition Same as Diesel, plus: Downsizing / boosting Fully flexible control of compression ratio Unthrottled operation Low sulfur/phosphorus lubricants HCCI/CAI Same as SI, plus: Control of in-cylinder: Mixing Temperature Exhaust residuals All: Exhaust treatment systems For <2.5 micron particulates NOx reduction Low temperature chemistry 9 5

6 Hybrids Face Commercial and Cost Challenges And Depend Also on IC Engine Developments Market issues are a major limiting factor Initial cost versus payback period Cost-effectiveness highly dependent on duty cycle. How do we get the consumer to make the right purchase decision? Energy storage systems can help somewhat (Batteries / Ultracapacitors / Hydro-pneumatic) Energy and power density, Cost Cycle and calendar life Charge/discharge efficiencies 1 Electric Powertrains Face Perhaps the Most Difficult Hurdles, But Promise Low In-Use Emissions Battery Fuel Cell Charge/discharge efficiency (~1%) System Cost: 5 to 1 Euro/kW Energy density: (>>1 Watt-hrs/gram) Safety for HEV batteries Avoid overheating Crash and rescue management Calendar life: ~ 1 to 15 yrs Cycle life vs depth of discharge Life: >1, hrs HCV > 2, hrs LCV Power density: Fuel cell: ~.35 kw/kg Entire system: ~1 kw/kg Efficiency: >>5% Fuel: A low-impact source of hydrogen is a key enabler Cost: <1$/Wh 11 6

7 A Safety Conscious World Will Insist That Safety Keep Pace With Other Aspects of Powertrain Technology Paying the Price Making vehicles safe in a crash adds weight and cost Active Safety (accident avoidance) will perhaps save more lives at lower penalties than making cars safer after the crash begins Vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-ground communications Pre-emptive maneuvers: technical capabilities versus legal liabilities Passive safety concerns must be addressed with new powertrain systems Energy storage modules Crashworthiness Inherent issues such as charge management On-board energy distribution and storage systems Safety during and after the accident Safe extraction of accident victims High voltage High pressures Gaseous fuels Is this an opportunity for global standardization? 12 Fossil Fuels Create Their Own Problems, But Are Hard to Beat! Non-renewable, controlled supply Hundreds of years supply, but at what cost? Ultimately not sustainable Pollution: toxic gases, particulates Greenhouse gas BUT: a tough benchmark to beat! Well-to-Tires issues, but legislation has, at least to date, focused on Tank-to- Tires solutions CO2-Emissions (kg/kwh) IFP / EU IFP / F Methanex / Ca MIT DEBIS Gree.8 Biomass H2 ex NG El..7 Petroleum Natural Gas Diesel (reduced S) Gasoline (reduced S) Well-to-Tank Generation of CO 2 Methanol fossil Source: Alternative Fuels Position Paper, Global Insight and TIAX, Future Heavy Duty Powertrain Technology Study Normalized WTW Efficiency, % Normalized Well-to-Tire Efficiency of Various Fuels and Engines ECOTRAFFIC MIT GM/ANL IFEU Gasoline Diesel MeOH CNG LNG CH DM SI Conv. CI Conv. CI Hybr FC FC Hybr. SI Conv. SI Conv. FC CI Conv. GTL CNG LNG Ethanol ex wheat C H2 ex NG center. Prod C H2 El.Net Electrolysis 13 7

8 And Bio Fuels Have Their Own Hurdles Optimal production path? Direct: Rape seed oils Diesel Cane sugar alcohols, ethers Gasoline Biomass methane Indirect:Biological paths methane synfuels hydrogen Infrastructure: Blending Separate distribution and dispensing system Only a partial solution: Land use limitations! Genetically modified organisms? But cost-effective with oil > $4 per barrel! Land Area Required to Replace Energy Demand of US with Bio Fuels 14 Major Challenges Need Ultimate Solutions Implemented by Industry and Regulators Alike Electricity is presently carbon intensive How to minimize CO 2 per kwh? Solar Wind Hydraulic Nuclear Hydrogen: Can we get a net gain from this fuel? Methane reformation Electrolysis using what carbon-free source? From fossil or bio derivatives? If carbon is an inevitable byproduct, what is the potential for carbon sequestration? Accelerate natural processes? Forestation Oceans Man-made solutions Solid Industrial Use Gaseous storage Cross-industry cooperative research 15 8

9 A More Harmonized Approach is Needed Regulators Industry (Auto and Fuel) Globally-oriented Well-to-Tire thinking needs to go into the development of regulations Fuel and vehicle technologies compatible with Well-to-Tire thinking given priority In-use as well as new vehicle regulations are required Life-of-vehicle solutions must be developed Long term dependency, at some level, on petroleum must be accepted and supported Continued research on optimizing the use of conventional as well as alternative fuels Fiscal incentives for transitional technologies should be available Transitional technologies should be encouraged who knows how long the transition will be? Funding for ultimate solutions should be available and sustained More basic research leading to applied solutions Global standardization will reduce costs, maximize benefits Globally similar products will minimize costs, enable optimal plant utilization 16 Automotive Thank you! Discussion or Questions? For further information, please contact: Philip Gott, Director Automotive Consulting Global Insight Inc philip.gott@globalinsight.com 9

10 Further Automotive Contact Information North America Susan Haule, Global Insight, Inc., Lexington MA T (+1) Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Eastern Europe Bernd Sauerwein & Thomas Renkawitz, Global Insight (Deutschland) GmbH T (+49) () T (+49) () UK, Ireland, Scandinavia Jon Rawson, Global Insight Limited (U.K) T (+44) () France, Belgium, Spain, Portugal & other Mediterranean Francoise DeVille, Global Insight (France) S.A. francoise.deville@globalinsight.com T (+33) () Italy Cinzia Carbone, Global Insight (Italy) S.r.l cinzia.carbone@globalinsight.com T (+39) () Japan Motohiro Cho, Global Insight (Japan) Inc. motohiro.cho@globalinsight.com T (+81) (3) Rest of Asia incl. Korea Charles Zhang, Global Insight (Hong Kong) Inc. charles.zhang@globalinsight.com T (+852)