Overview of UPS Strategy for Deployment of Alternative Fuel and Advanced Technology Vehicles

Transcription

1 Overview of UPS Strategy for Deployment of Alternative Fuel and Advanced Technology Vehicles Panel Presentation (Natural Gas Fuels G205) Jim Bruce, V.P. UPS Corporate Public Affairs Washington, D.C. Presentation to SAE, January 30, 2013

2 Fuel and Fleet Diversity Why? 1. Mitigation of Risk Cost of fuel and fuel price volatility Fuel supply weather, terrorism, etc Competitor risk 2. Sustainability Green Solution Competitive advantage in procurement Customer Driven 3. Legislation EPA / Political / Legal Requirement Urban access

3 Summary: UPS and Alternative Fuel Vehicles No blanket solution to replacing petroleum. UPS is fuel neutral. We have tested in service just about everything. Will use a variety of alternative fuel vehicles depending on the vehicle, load hauled, and the mission, e.g., long-haul, stop and go, type of fuel available. Most fuel consumption per vehicle - - heavy duty tractor fleet Liquid natural gas (LNG) looks particularly attractive for class 8 tractors. Currently, all our alternative fuel vehicles require financial assistance to meet our required return on investment, but this may change for some vehicles. We prefer not to rely on such financial assistance long-term. Future: many see electric drive as inevitable for many types of trucks

4 UPS Alternative Fuel Fleet Total Alternative Fuel Vehicles (U.S. & International): 2,522 U.S. Alternative Fuel Fleet: 1,424 Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles: 933 Hybrid Electric Vehicles: 380 Liquid Natural Gas Vehicles: 93 Propane Vehicles: 7 Electric Vehicles: 6 Hydraulic Hybrid Vehicles: 5 International Alternative Fuel Fleet: 1,081 Updated: 10/12/2012 Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles: 101 Hybrid Electric Vehicles: 1 Propane Vehicles: 910 Electric Vehicles: 30 Ethanol Vehicles: 46 (Brazil) Biomethane Vehicles: 10 4

5 An All-of-the-Above Strategy As the folks here at UPS understand, we ve got to have an all-out, all-in, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every source of American energy. -Barack Obama, Jan 26, 2012

6 Hub and Spoke Trucking Firms Don t Need Extensive Fuel Infrastructure Hubs: Place NG fueling stations at hubs as much as 300 miles apart. LNG tractor trailers with 550 mile range go 275 miles to next hub and return to their home hub for refueling Hubs on corridors and triangles Spokes: Package cars refuel with CNG at their hub, make local deliveries, and return to hub for refueling for next day. Fueling infrastructure at each hub is expensive. UPS seeks government assistance and permits public access through the fence to our refueling stations.

7 UPS Major Hubs Slide Bullet 1 Slide Bullet 2 Slide Bullet 2-a Slide Bullet 2-a-i UPS Alternative Fuels: What s On Our Menu?

8 Analyzing the Business Case for Natural Gas Powered Trucks: Natural Gas Price Advantage Source: AEO2012, HDV Reference case

9 Tank Size for 500 Mile Range Diesel LNG 100 GAL ~ GAL ~ 12 Methane 220 GAL ~ 15 CNG 450 GAL ~ 34 *Range Estimate based on 5 MPG / Size based on usable tank volume / all tank diameters 26

10 Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) As A Fuel For Over-the-Road Heavy Trucks (Compression Ignition) 95% reduction in petroleum use 25% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions when replacing diesel trucks mile range Much reduced operating costs Cryogenic tanks High initial costs LNG truck 100% premium over new diesel truck Fueling station -- $1 million + UPS: a decade of experience with 11 LNG heavy trucks on the road between CA and NV.

11 Kenworth T800 - Extended Day Cab - Single Rear Axle - Fuller 10 Speed Transmission

12 Primary Factors in the Business Case for Natural Gas Powered Trucks Diesel/alternative fuel price spread --- Vehicle Fuel Consumption is the vehicle consuming 10 gal/day or 100 gal/day? Objective: Spread higher initial vehicle cost over fuel savings. Vehicle fuel economy: 5 mpg or 12 mpg? Vehicle miles traveled: 50 miles or 500 miles per day? Incremental cost of the alternative fuel truck: 20% or 100% of conventional vehicle price? Fueling infrastructure: centrally fueled? Emissions equipment burden Government assistance -- critical so far

13 Secondary Factors in the Business Case for Natural Gas Powered Trucks Number of vehicles on site? Need critical mass for fueling. Emissions profile? Terrain? Horsepower/torque requirements (e.g., diesel vs. spark) Stop and go, or over the road? Room for fuel tanks Extra weight or length for the vehicle Maintenance Driver issues Ambient temperatures? Required internal rate of return?

14 General Summary Low natural gas prices offer unprecedented opportunities CNG/LNG not a drop-in fuel, requires significant infrastructure investment LNG supply chain is more complex than for CNG Need reduced incremental vehicle costs to make the business case. Currently, all our alternative fuel vehicles require financial assistance to meet our required return on investment, but this may change for some vehicles. We prefer not to rely on such financial assistance long-term. Hubs and spokes on corridors and triangles

15 Class 8 trucks in Particular Natural gas is the viable option. LNG favored for range and performance. CNG options continue to develop in class 8 for shorter ranges. Emissions compliance is a major driver of incremental equipment costs. Business case is marginal due to incremental vehicle costs, but should decline with more manufacturers and larger production volumes. New class 8 engines coming that may reduce vehicle cost sufficiently to enable attractive investments without financial assistance, despite slight performance degradations. Greatest potential and lowest risk: Centrally fueled long-haul (500 miles/day) over the road Class 8 tractors on LNG Very sensitive to future diesel/natural gas price spread at retail and wholesale.

16 Regardless of Federal Incentives, Stop Federal Disincentives to Alternative Fuel Vehicles Federal excise tax on the incremental cost of alternative fuel vehicles. Vehicle weight penalties for alternative fuel supply LNG tax should be based on diesel equivalent gallon, not volume

17 Thank you.