Moving Toward A Low Carbon Future: A Policy Perspective

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1 Moving Toward A Low Carbon Future: A Policy Perspective ICEF 2015 October 8, 2015 Michael P. Walsh International Consultant Founding Chairman Board of Directors, International Council on Clean Transportation 1

2 Automobiles and the Environment Global Environment Urban Environment Emissions VOC,NOx,PM CO2, BC, O 3 Alternative Fuels Energy Security Convenience Recycle Economy Safety

3 A Variety Of Air Pollution Concerns Many Linkages Greenhouse Gases - CO2, methane, Black Carbon, Ozone, F-Gases Haze Acid Rain Ozone (ROG + NOx) Particles (PM10/PM2.5) (NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia) Lead Carbon monoxide (CO) Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) Toxics - Diesel particles - Benzene - Chromium - Asbestos

4 We Now Face A New Global Challenge: Climate Change Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

5 IPCC Calls For 80% Reduction By

6 GRAMS CO2 PER KILOMETER NORMALIZED TO NEDC TEST CYCLE Historical Fleet CO 2 Emissions Performance And Current Or Proposed Standards Show We Are Making Significant Progress Solid dots and lines: historical performance Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal US-LDV California-LDV Canada-LDV EU Japan China S. Korea Australia Extending the improvement curves at the same rate will not achieve the 80% reductions required by China 2020: 117 Japan 2020: 105 US 2025:107 EU 2020: [1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.

7 US EPA Has Proposed Phase 2 Heavy Duty CO2/ Fuel Economy Rule 7

8 CO 2 is Only Part of the Story UNEP & WMO (2011) Reduction of CO 2 emissions does not help to mitigate climate change until Reduction of emissions of BC and CH 4 will bring a relatively rapid climate response. Decrease of SLCPs coupled with CO 2 could lead to both the midterm ( ) mitigation of climate change and the 2 capping in 2100.

9 Black Carbon (BC) Diesel PM Identified as Prime Candidate for BC Control: A Leading environmental cause of poor health and premature death As a warming agent: Absorbing solar radiation and converting it to heat Increasing the melting rate of ice and snow CCAC (2014)

10 Tropospheric Ozone (O 3 ) O 3 is a secondary gas (not directly emitted). Tropospheric O 3 is formed by sunlight-driven oxidation of precursor gases (CH 4, CO, NMVOCs, and NO x ). Tropospheric O 3 is also an important GHG Tropospheric O 3 is a serious health hazard and adversely affects the growth of certain crops. CCAC (2014) Differences as O 3 precursors: CH 4 and CO are important for tropospheric O 3 on global scale. NO x and NMVOCs are more important for high regional O 3.

11 Sum of cardiovascular, lung cancer and respiratory mortality related to PM2.5 and O3 in the eastern USA, Europe, southern and eastern Asia in 2005 Source: Lilieveld et al, APC

12 California s Low-Emission Vehicle Program Adopted in 2012 Achieves 75% reduction in smog-forming pollution Achieves 90% reduction in PM standard NMOG +NOx (grams/mile) Cars 75% reductio n Particulate Matter Emission Limits (milligrams/mile) Model Year 2 0 Current Standard

13 Europe is Wrestling with Upgrading Compliance Developments for Euro 1 Euro 5 Chen, Y., Borken-Kleefeld, J. (2014). Amospheric Environment 88 (2014)

14 PEMS Testing Results for NOx 14

15 EPA Issues Notice of Violation Defeat Device Increases NOx Up To 40 Times Over Standard 15

16 And 76 alternative powertrain models are available in the US in

17 Role of Advanced Clean Cars Stable Globa l Climat e Health y Air Qualit y 2020 GHG Emission Target Ozone and PM2.5 Attainment Mid-term GHG Target?? ppm 8-hr Ozone Attainment Advanced and Fleet Transformation Clean Cars 2050 GHG Emission Target LEV III Criteria and GHG: Improving Conventional Vehicle Technology Advanced Clean Cars 2.0?? Technology Commercialization Future Ozone Standard?? ZEV Program: Accelerating Advanced Technology Development 100% ZEV Sales by

18 Number of Vehicles (Thousands) ZEV Regulation: Advancing The Market Criter ia GHG ZEV ZEV Amendments: Likely Compliance Scenario ZEVs Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) Model Year 18

19 North Coast Upstate No. of DCFC connectors No. of Level 2 connectors Bay Area Capital Area Monterey Bay San Joaqui n Valley Centra Public l Cost Chargers in California Southern California Coachell a Valley San Diego Charger data from AFDC Database, September 1, 2014 On-road PEVs >30k or (Spring 2014) >10k-30k more >6k-10k >3k-6k >1k-3k 1k or less

20 California s Growing Hydrogen Network Current 10 stations mostly in greater Los Angeles and Orange County Planned by retail-like stations to cover near-term vehicle demand Drive from northern to southern California 20

21 Energy Sources And Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions In 2014 For Conventional And Electric Vehicles On Average U.S. And California Electricity Grids Biofuel, 7% Renewable, 10% Nuclear, 20% Coal, 45% Renewable, 26% Nuclear, 16% Coal, 1% Oil, 1% Oil, 93% Natural gas, 23% Oil, 1% Natural gas, 55% 400 gco 2 /mile Average U.S. car 233 gco 2 /mile Electric vehicle, U.S.. average 106 gco 2 /mile Electric vehicle, California 21

22 Electric Vehicle Sales Share, New Registrations, And Charging In 2014 In Europe Electric vehicle share 0% 5% 10% 15% Electric vehicles 0 10,000 20,000 Chargers per capita (per million population) ,000 Austria Belgium Denmark France Germany Italy Netherlands Norway Spain Sweden United Kingdom Rest of Europe BEV PHEV BEV PHEV Fast Standard 22

23 Very Strong Electric Vehicles Incentives in Norway Exemption From The Normal Value-added Tax (Vat) And The One-time Registration Fee High Fuel Savings (Gasoline & Diesel Expensive) Free Toll Roads Access To Bus Lanes Free Parking Extensive Charging Network, And Free Charging.

24 China Now Most Important Motor Vehicle Market Exploding m New Cars 154 M Cars 219m to 247 m Drivers Licenses in one year Cars surpassing Motorcycles 24

25 Emissions standards for mobile sources in China Actual Implementation Has Been A Serious Challenge Especially For Heavy Duty Vehicles Fuel Quality & Institutional Challenges 25 Source: Huiming Gong, CSEP

26 China Has Now Adopted A New Clean Air Law First Revision in 15 Years Becomes Effective January 1, 2016 Key Mobile Source Related Provisions Clear Authority to Conduct In-Use Compliance Testing and to Mandate Recalls Explicit Requirement for Emissions Warranty, Prohibitions Against Defeat Devices or OBD Tampering Off Road Engines, Vessels, Aircraft are Included as Mobile Sources 26

27 China Is Stimulating Electric Vehicle Sales New Residential Complexes Must Include Charging Stations For Electric Cars More Public Parking Spaces (10% On Average) Must Be Reserved For Plug-in And Hybrid Vehicles For All Public Street Side And Large Building Parking Spaces A Forthcoming Regulation Will Address Inconsistencies In Technical Standards For Charging Such Vehicles. The Government Also Will Require On Average One Charging Point For Every 2,000 Vehicles. Sales Of Alternative Energy Vehicles Increased 270 Percent In China During The First Eight Months Of 2015 Compared To The Same Period in 2014, Driven In Part By Subsidies And Tax Incentives In Beijing, New Car Buyers Are Exempted From The Lottery If They Buy New Energy Vehicles

28 Electric vehicle sales Global Electric Vehicle Sales Are Rising 300, , , Rest of world US Japan Europe China Figure es-1. annual global electric vehicle sales 28

29 Thank You

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