Referendum As A Gesture Of A Good Will : Peace And War Scenarios For Karabakh

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1 INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES OF THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (ARMENIA) CENTER FOR SECURITY AND DEFENSE STUDIES, LYION UNIVERSITY JEAN MOULIN (FRANCE) Referendum As A Gesture Of A Gd Will : Peace And War Scenaris Fr Karabakh Dr. MG Hayk Sargis Ktanjian, Head, INSS, MOD, Armenia Member, Academic- Expert Cincil, CSTO, Cunterterrrism Fellw, NDU (USA) Fellw Member, Russian Academy f Military Sciences Presentatin at the Internatinal Cnference Reassesssing Security in the Suth Caucasus: Reginal Cnflicts, Stability and Transfrmatin, May , Yerevan Our Cnference is being held under cnditins f active pursuit f ways fr creating sustainable hmgeneus glbal, first and fremst, Eurpean security envirnment by stakehlders. Wrld experts cnsider adhering t the security principle, accrding t which n ne shuld seek greater security at the expense f thers, as an essential basis fr new internatinal security architecture. Tday s frum draws analytical cmmunity s attentin t pssibility f taking such an apprach t the assessment f security features f ur ptentially explsive regin the Suth Caucasus 1. Frm ur viewpint, it is, first f all, a matter f learning sber lessns frm the tragic utcme f the last year s war in Gergia 2 and a pssible recurrence f the frmer metrplitan cuntries attempt t reslve the reginal cnflicts by means f resuming war this time in Karabakh. As yu remember, develpment f military-plitical and military techniques t unfreeze reginal cnflicts has been ne f the main tpics at many centers fr strategic studies in the curse f last years 3. As a matter f fact, if we call things by their prper names, there are grunds fr stating the failure t use these unfreezing techniques in the Caucasus. Clnial wars have been disguised as peratins by the frmer metrplitan cuntries armed frces t restre their territrial integrity ppressing the de fact selfdetermined peples will. Azerbaijan is ging t emply the same unfreezing mdel t reslve the Karabakh cnflict. There ccur unlimited increase f military frce and revanchist rhetric, and preparatin fr a just war t restre the territrial integrity by Baku authrities. This is being implemented in the diplmatic guise f actins fr the internatinal cmmunity t justify the impending a new systemic, first f all humanitarian catastrphe f reginal scale. The recent Munich Cnference n Security Plicy, G-20 Lndn Summit and 60th Anniversary NATO Summit in Strasburg have cnsiderably renvated the views n utlines f Eurpean and n reginal sectins f glbal security architecture being built under cnditins f glbal systemic financial-ecnmic crisis 4. Lately, the develpment f ptimal reginal security architecture in the Suth Caucasus have been enhanced by Turkey s initiative fr Caucasus stability and cperatin 5 and by reginal cperatin cnsultatins within the framewrk f the Eurpean Unin s Eastern Partnership 6. These initiatives are targeted at augmenting the ptential f internatinal supprt t stability in the Suth Caucasus, launched by UN, OSCE with its Minsk Grup, CSTO with the help f creating Cllective Operative Reactin Frces 7, NATO thrugh the Partnership fr Peace prgram, EU with its Eurpean Neighbrhd Plicy integratin prgram 8, frums f the Organizatin f the Black Sea Ecnmic Cperatin. The pliticaldiplmatic effrts by such reginal players as Russia, the USA, France, Turkey and Iran are als aimed at it. The OSCE Minsk Grup C-Chairs assume the three fundamental principles f the UN Charter, namely nn-use f frce, territrial integrity and peples free self-determinatin 9, as basic tenets fr the Karabakh cnflict settlement and reslutin, which appears t be an encuraging factr fr nnresumptin f war in Karabakh. The cntinuus dialgue between the Armenian and Azerbaijani heads f states, interspersed with cunseling by the OSCE Minsk Grup C-Chairs, has undubtedly psitive influence n the peacekeeping prcess in the Suth Caucasus. The Maindrf Declaratin n the Karabakh settlement shuld be cnsidered an imprtant impetus fr maintaining the prcess f the Karabakh cnflict peaceful settlement. This declaratin was signed in Nvember 2008 n the initiative f the Russian President by the Presidents f Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia 10. 1

2 The relatively new wrld cuntry leaders frm amng the key actrs in ur regin, namely Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, US President Barack Obama, French President Niclas Sarkzy and German Chancellr Angela Merkel, alng with heads f ther states have been included in pursuit f decisins n establishing hmgeneus security envirnment in the field f strategic interests f the Russian Federatin, the USA, EU, NATO and CSTO. This prmtes the dialgue in favur f nnresumptin f war in the Suth Caucasus. Like all the internatinal cmmunity, ur regin attaches great imprtance t the frthcming dialgue f the new US Administratin with Iran an imprtant member f the plitical-security rchestra in the regin, which is n the threshld f Presidential electins, as well as with a number f ther key states f the Middle Eastern and Suth Asian regin 11. The initiative f the Armenian President fr starting Armenian-Turkish dialgue n pprtunities f establishing intergvernmental relatins between the Republic f Armenia and the Republic f Turkey withut precnditins has significantly cntributed t maintaining equilibrium in the plitical-security envirnment f the regin. In this stage establishing diplmatic relatins between the Republic f Armenia and the Republic f Turkey culd becme pragmatic and perspective cntributin t peace in the Caucasus 12. Under these cnditins the guarantee fr stability and security in ur regin is a prblem requiring prfessinal interpretatin at internatinal frums like this, and drawing up plitical-security prpsals fr natinal and internatinal decisin-making centers. Security in the Sutheast Caucasus first f all is determined by the guarantees f nn-resumptin f clnial war by the frmer metrplitan cuntry Azerbaijan against the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic 13, which hasn t been recgnized by the internatinal cmmunity but has gained de fact as well as de jure self-determinatin. The Nagrn-Karabakh Republic was brn as a result f the Karabakh cnflict identified as an internatinal and natinal-liberatin cnflict in cmpliance with the Prtcl I Additinal t the Geneva Cnventins 14. The fllwing factrs require special attentin while evaluating the threat f war resumptin in Karabakh. These factrs influence the neutrality f decisins made by internatinal frce centers maintaining stability and security in the Suth Caucasus: prmtin f plitical and prpagandistic prducts n the Karabakh cnflict s falsified identificatin in the internatinal cmmunity by the Azerbaijani authrities: distrtin f the cnflict s natinal-liberatin character, its plitical-legal and histrical basis, and the fact f legality f establishment f the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic, cncealment f Azerbaijanis byctt by rder f Baku when the Armenian cmmunity f Nagrn-Karabakh in December 1991 made an appeal t the Azerbaijani electrate t participate in the referendum n identificatin f the territry status f Shahumyan regin inhabited by Armenians and the Nagrn-Karabakh Autnmus Oblast, AzR SSR, previusly disslved by the Azerbaijani authrities despite the USSR legislatin 15 ; inactivity f cmpetent internatinal rganizatins regarding the intensive militarizatin f Azerbaijan with a manifld excess f CFE Treaty ceilings, which is targeted at unleashing a new war in Karabakh 16, despite the tragic aftermaths f the war in Gergia; Azerbaijan s public expansinism with regard t the territry f the Republic f Armenia with falsificatin f the fact that the Turkic ancestrs f Azerbaijanis came frm the Central Asia and declaring the indigenus Armenians as newcmers in their hmeland, and the mnuments f the Armenian millennia-ld cultural heritage as prt-azerbaijani 17 ; Azerbaijani authrities pseudscientific claims n a gencide actually nnexistent in the histry f the Caucasus, allegedly cmmitted by Armenians and Russians against Azerbaijanis, cnslidatin f this falsificatin by the Azerbaijani President s Decree n prclaiming the day f gencide as Natinal Murning Day; cultivatin f an enemy image represented by Armenian natin amng Azerbaijani ppulatin by Baku authrities actively manipulating the fabricated gencidal act against Azerbaijani and Meskhetian Turks resided in Khjaly settlement. Accrding t the then Azerbaijani President A. Mutalibv, this was actually cmmitted by the armed units f Azerbaijani ppsitin as a means f pwer seizure 18 ; 2

3 Baku authrities manipulatin f the plitical resurce f the internatinal cmmunity in geplitical bargaining ver the Karabakh cnflict reslutin in favur f Azerbaijan using the prjects f prviding Eurpe with hydrcarbns thrugh alternative transit rutes; deteriratin in antidemcratic essence f the Aliyev s hereditary regime in Azerbaijan. Establishment f the plitical-legal system f Azerbaijani gvernment as an antidemcratic sultanate style petr-state uncnfrmable with the level f real demcracy exercised in the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic. Summing up the assessment f war resumptin chances in the Suth Caucasus there are reasns t assert that the Azerbaijani authrities use pseud-demcratic phraselgy and camuflage planned preparatin fr new armed aggressin against the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic thrugh their participatin in the dialgue with the Armenian President. Thus, there exists a real threat f undermining stability and security in the Suth Caucasus, which demands the internatinal cmmunity s special attentin. Frmally nt declining the cunseling within the framewrk f OSCE Minsk Grup C-Chairs Aliyev s regime in fact cntinues impsing n its peple and the internatinal cmmunity the perverted interpretatin f the Karabakh cnflict s natinal-liberatin essence, as well as the legal and plitical fact f legitimacy f establishment f the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic 19. Azerbaijan explits the fact that the Republic f Armenia missed the pprtunity f having the UN t accept the exclusive fact f frmatin f the legitimate pwers f the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic by hlding a referendum in cntrast t all ther reginal cnflicts in the frmer USSR territry ( belated Abkhazia, Suth Ossetia and Transdniestria) 20. Aliyev s regime tries t deny the facts f legitimacy f the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic, the aggressin f Azerbaijan against the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic and the legality f its self-defense n the basis f falsified identity f the Karabakh cnflict. Nt recgnizing the legitimacy f the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic Baku denies the fact that since December 1991, as a result f the legitimate referendum, the Republic f Azerbaijan desn t cntain the territry f the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic 21. Baku authrities use the resurces f their hydrcarbnic attractiveness t impse n the internatinal cmmunity the paradigm f vercming territrial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia instead f the paradigm f free self-determinatin f Nagrn-Karabakh by means f direct demcracy in cmpliance with the nrms f internatinal law and standards f wrld practice. Baku imperatively requires limited, internal self-determinatin f Nagrn-Karabakh slely as a subject f the Republic f Azerbaijan 22. The wrld practice is being ignred where peaceful self-determinatin f Eritrea, East Timr, Mntenegr and Ksv tk place thrugh referenda held nt amng the ppulatin f metrplitan Ethipia, Indnesia and Yugslavia but the self-determined Eritreans, East Timreans, Mntenegrin and Ksvars. In cnnectin with this the pursuit f legitimate ways and tls fr the Karabakh cnflict cmprmise reslutin becmes f strategic caliber and a basis fr ensuring stability and security in the Suth Caucasus. At the same time, the Karabakh cnflict cmprmise reslutin cnfrms t the abvementined three fundamental principles f internatinal law reflected in the UN Charter and applied by the OSCE Minsk Grup. This will require a cnstitutinal referendum nt t intrduce int the Azerbaijani Cnstitutin recurrent elements aimed at cnslidating the antidemcracy f the sultanate style pwer 23 but t make the Article 11 f the Azerbaijani Cnstitutin fully cnfrm t the free self-determinatin principles f the UN Charter and the Internatinal Cvenants n human rights and fundamental freedms 24. We believe that the cnflict reslutin under the circumstances is pssible if the factrs threatening peace in the Caucasus are excluded in the next stages f the Karabakh cnflict settlement. Disclsing the essence f the war resumptin threat impsed by Azerbaijan presuppses a mre minute examinatin f sme tendencies bserved in the curse f the last six years in the cnsultatin prcess under the aegis f the OSCE Minsk Grup C-Chairs. Over these years a frmula f cmprmise has been included in the cnsultatins agenda fr the Karabakh cnflict settlement, which was ffered by the Armenian side n western experts advice. This assumes cnsent f the cncerned parties t hld a secnd referendum amng the ppulatin f the frmer Nagrn-Karabakh Autnmus Oblast, despite the fact f the legitimate referendum held in Nagrn-Karabakh n December 10, The supprters f hlding a secnd referendum as a tken f gdwill wanted t give the Azerbaijani authrities a face-saving chance in frnt f their electrs. The idea was t ease the discntent f Azerbaijanis pisned with the revanchism f the anti-armenian gvernmental prpaganda. The supprters expected the independent status f Nagrn-Karabakh t be cnfirmed in case a referendum 3

4 fully cmplying with the nrms and prcedure requirements f internatinal law and wrld practice was held. Hwever, Baku turned the face-saving suggestin f the Minsk Grup Chairmanship int a cynical trick t undermine cnfidence in the legitimacy f the referendum f 1991 and the legality f Karabakh s independent statehd. President I. Aliyev tries t substitute the Nagrn-Karabakh ppulatins right f self-determinatin and the fact f their legitimate expressin f ppular will with his statements abut impssibility f granting independence t Nagrn-Karabakh 25. Mrever, under the pretext f selfdefense President I. Aliyev peridically makes statements threatening t resume war fr Karabakh, which is a secnd armed aggressin against the legitimate Nagrn-Karabakh Republic 26. Besides, the currently discussed prpsals cncern the return f refugees and temprary migrants t Karabakh and taking territries ut f the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic s security zne in the first stage f the cnflict reslutin. These prpsals are fraught with a threat t resume interethnic tensin, undermine stability in Karabakh and prvke a new clnial war. Hlding a secnd referendum under these cnditins becmes a prblem nt nly in the perspective f years but als the chances f hlding it may be in dubt at all. Thus, the threat f the Karabakh war resumptin by Azerbaijan is real. Tw scenaris f unleashing war appear feasible in the freseeable future: the first scenari is mre preferable fr Baku s self-justificatin befre the wrld cmmunity: it is built n the fabricatin that in case Azerbaijani refugees and temprary migrants return t Karabakh, the Azerbaijani Armed Frces will defend them frm skirmishes with the Armenian lcals. The matter cncerns the Azerbaijani plans n rapid return f refugees befre hlding a secnd referendum t aruse Armenian-Azerbaijani ld inter-cmmunity enmity cnditined by the unslved prblem f the Nagrn-Karabakh status; the secnd scenari is less desirable fr Baku: it is cnnected with the difficulty fr Azerbaijan t bear ut its right t stensible self-defense in frnt f the wrld cmmunity, whereas the Armenian side cmplies with the 1994 Ceasefire Agreement between the Republic f Armenia, the Republic f Azerbaijan and the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic and participates in cnsultatins n the Karabakh cnflict peaceful settlement under the aegis f the OSCE Minsk Grup 27. In cnclusin we ll try t answer the questin hw t maintain stability and ensure security in the Suth Caucasus when the Azerbaijan s demnstrative preparatin fr a new clnial aggressin against the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic inherently repeats the scenari f unleashing the last year s war in Suth Ossetia. The prpsal n hlding a secnd referendum in the initial stage, and nt after the explsive return f refugees and territries, seems mre pragmatic in terms f reginal security interests and the current tendencies. Besides, it shuld be held in the places f Armenian and Azerbaijani cmmunities current habitatin and under the UN and OSCE cntrl and frceful guarantees. At the same time, taking int accunt the specific character f the Karabakh cnflict, it is expedient t cnsider the experience f the UN and OSCE missins in Ksv 28. The main feature f the Karabakh cnflict is the fact f 18-year-ld unbrken activity f demcratically elected gvernment f the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic. It prductively meets cmmitments in natinal and internatinal security interests, stipulated by the Cnstitutin and Legislatin f the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic, and bserves the ceasefire regime withut internatinal peacekeeping frces in the cnflict zne. Under these cnditins the return f the Karabakh side t the negtiatin prcess n cmplete reslutin f the cnflict becmes a plitical-security imperative. The given apprach t armed cnflicts reslutin by peaceful tls crrespnding t the internatinallegal principles f nn-use f frce, the right t free self-determinatin and territrial integrity may als becme a viable alternative t a new war in Suth Ossetia and Abkhazia. I believe that further prfessinal develpment f the suggested apprach t armed cnflicts reslutin in ur regin will assist the relevant natinal and internatinal centers in making efficient decisins t eliminate new wars and craft prductive reginal security architecture in the Suth Caucasus. REFERENCES: 4

5 1 Dr. Hayk Ktanjian: «GUIDELINES ON DEVELOPING ARMENIAN NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL SECURITY ARCHITECTURE OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS». Mngraph, SNSEE- NSOOC, NDU, USA. Washingtn-Yerevan, DR Hayk Ktanjian. Azerbaijan: Anti-Demcratism and Clnialism. A glance at the perspective f Reginal Security after Ksv. REGNUM News Agency, February 12, 2008 (The text was disseminated by the Infrmatin Resurce Center, Public Affairs Sectin, U. S. Embassy Yerevan). 3 Dr. Ceslav Cibanu (VSU Eminent Schlar, Assciate Prfessr f Ecnmics, Ambassadr (ret.), Senir Research Schlar, Center fr Security and Science). Plitical Ecnmy f Frzen Cnflicts in ex-sviet States: Challenges and Prspects fr the U.S. and Russia. Virginia State University Internatinal Cnference, April, 2007 (pdc.ceu.hu/archive/ /01/plitical_ecnmy.pdf); see als: Dr. Ceslav Cibanu. Frzen and Frgtten Cnflicts in the Pst-Sviet States: Genesis, Plitical Ecnmy and Prspects fr Slutin. United States Institute f Peace, Virginia State University. Richmnd, 2008 (http://www.ipp.md/files/publicatii/2008/usip_ manuscript_mar13_08 Mldva_.dc). 4 Speech by President f the Republic f Armenia H.E. Mr. Serzh Sargsyan at the 45th Munich Security Cnference. The Official site f the President f the RA, February 7, 2009 (http://www.president.am/events/news/eng/?search=մյունխեն&id=395). 5 Deniz Çakar, Head f Department at Ministry f Freign Affairs f Turkey, Turkey s Rle in the Caucasus: Caucasus Stability and Security Platfrm, INSS, MD, RA, Wrking Ntebks, N 3-4, External Relatins. Eastern Partnership. The Official site f the Eurpean Cmmissin (http://ec.eurpa.eu/external_relatins/eastern/index_en.htm). 7 Extrardinary sessins f the Cuncil f the CSTO and EurAsEC in Mscw. The Official site f the President f the RA, February 4, 2009 (http://www.president.am/events/visits/eng/?visits=1&id=52). 8 EU in the Wrld. Eurpean Neighburhd Plicy. The Official site f the Eurpean Cmmissin (http://ec.eurpa.eu/wrld/enp/index_en.htm#). 9 A breakthrugh in the Karabakh cnflict settlement is pssible in May-June Brysa. Nvsti-Azerbaijan Internatinal Infrmatin Agency, April 16, 2009 (http://www.newsazerbaijan.ru/karabakh/ / html) (translated frm Russian); see als: Statement f the C-Chairs f the OSCE Minsk Grup: There is n military slutin t the Nagrn-Karabakh cnflict. REGNUM, February 19, 2009 (http://www.regnum.ru/english/ html). 10 Declaratin between the Republic f Azerbaijan, the Republic f Armenia and the Russian Federatin. Maiendrf Castle, Mscw Regin, Nvember 2, The Official Web Prtal f the President f Russia (http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/text/dcs/2008/11/ shtml). 11 Obama ffers Iran new beginning. BBC News, March 20, 2009 (http://news.bbc.c.uk/ 2/hi/americas/ stm); see als: Obama Offers Direct Nuclear Talks With Iran. SKY News, Website f the Year, April 9, 2009 (http://news.sky.cm/skynews/hme/wrld-news/barack-obama-offers-direct-talks-with-iran- Over-Nuclear-Prgramme-And-Issues-Warning-T-Israel/Article/ ?f=rss); see als: Obama In Turkey: Meets With Leaders, Addresses Parliament. The Huffingtn Pst, April 6, 2009 (http://www.huffingtnpst.cm/2009/04/06/bama-meets-with-abdullah_n_ html); see als: Obama calls fr talks with Iran ver Iraq. Breitbart.cm, April 8, 2009 (http://www.breitbart.cm/ article.php?id= ud9xv11e&shw_article=1); see als: Michael R. Grdn and Jeff Zeleny. Obama Envisins New Iran Apprach. The New Yrk Times, Nvember 2, 2007 (http://www.nytimes.cm/2007/11/02/us/plitics/02bama.html?_r=1). 12 Tday by the invitatin f the President f Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, President f Turkey Abdullah Gul. The Official site f the President f the RA, September 6, 2009 (http://www.president.am/ events/news/eng/?search=գյուլ&pn=1&id=172); see als: Interview f president Serzh Sargsyan t the Radical Turkish Daily. The Official site f the President f the RA, August 28, 2008 (http://www.president.am/ events/news/eng/?search=գյուլ&pn=1&id=160); see als: Gul in landmark visit t Armenia. BBC News, September 6, 2008 (http://news.bbc.c.uk/2/hi/eurpe/ stm). 13 Declaratin n Granting Independence t Clnial Cuntries and Peples, United Natins, General Assembly, Official Recrds, Fifteenth Sessin, Reslutins. New Yrk, 1961, pp Prtcl Additinal t the Geneva Cnventins f 12 August 1949, relating t the Prtectin f Victims f Internatinal Armed Cnflicts (Prtcl I) part 1, article 1, it. 4. Human Rights. Internatinal Treaty Cllectin, vlume 1, (part 2), Universal Treaties. UN, New Yrk Geneva, 1994, p AzR Law On Ablitin NKAO AzR, Nvember 26, Registers f AzR SC, 1991, N 24; see als: S. Zlyan, CSCE in the Karabakh Cnflict (1992), NAGORNO-KARABAKH: PROBLEM AND CONFLICT. CHAPTER 6, ArmenianHuse.rg (http://www.armenianhuse.rg/zlyan/nf-ru/karabakh/6.html). Afterwards the Armenian cmmunity f Nagrn-Karabakh and neighbring Shahumyan regin prclaimed the establishment f the 5

6 independent Nagrn-Karabakh Republic (the independence f the NKR was declared in after the referendum held by the newly elected Supreme Cuncil (Sviet), whereas in , after Azerbaijan's declaratin n state independence restratin, in cmpliance with the USSR Law n Withdrawal f a Sviet Republic frm the USSR, the NKR was declared as a Unin territry with a subsequent specificatin f its status thrugh a referendum S. Z.). It prvked sharp reactin in Azerbaijan, including the acceptance f reslutins by the Natinal Assembly since Nvember 26, 1991, n ablishing autnmy f the regin and placing it under the direct cntrl f Azerbaijan. Hwever, after declaring independence electins f a new parliament and a referendum were held inside the regin, ratifying the Declaratin f Independence by the verwhelming majrity, thugh the Azerbaijani ppulatin byctted this event (translated frm Russian). 16 Hayk Ktanjian: Azerbaijan: Anti-demcratism and clnialism in the perspective f reginal security. REGNUM (http://www.regnum.ru/english/ html) (Reprt at the cnference called Caucasus and Middle East cuntries as ptential partners in the prcess f frming reginal security system. February 7, 2008, Yerevan). 17 Azerbaijan Armenia Karabakh. The Armenian academic cmmunity appealed t the OSCE Minsk Grup, December 27, 2005 (http://www.rl.ru/news/misc/newssng/05/12/27_061.htm) (translated frm Russian); see als: The falsificatin f the regin s histry is being cntinued in Azerbaijan : annuncement by the Armenian academic cmmunity, REGNUM, December 30, 2005 (http://www.regnum.ru/news/ html) (translated frm Russian). 18 Interview f the AzR President Ayaz Mutalibv t the Czech jurnalist Dana Mazalva, "I am a humanist at heart", "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", 2 April, 1992 (translated frm Russian). 19 Ilham Aliyev, My Universities, Azerbaijan.az, December 24, 2007 (http://azerbaijan.news.az/ index.php?lng=aze&pid=19934); Ilham Aliyev, excerpts frm his direct address: "In the cntemprary wrld the transitin f pwer frm ne member f a family t anther in itself isn t cnsidered as an antidemcratic fact". "Mrever, I d like t mentin that the true heir f Heydar Aliyev is my yunger sn, Heydar Aliyev, the yungest member f ur family". 20 USSR Law "On Prcedure f Settling Issues related t Withdrawal f a Sviet Republic frm the USSR" N f April 3, 1990". Registers f USSR Cngress f Peple's Deputies, USSR Supreme Cuncil, 1990, N 15; AzR Law "On Ablitin NKAO AzR", Nvember 26, Registers f AzR SC, 1991, N 24; Act n the referendum results n the independence f the Nagrn Karabakh Republic, December 10, 1991, Stepanakert, Nagrn-Karabakh Republic, Ministry f Freign Affairs (http://www.nkr.am/rus/facts/referendum.html) (translated frm Russian). 21 Act n the referendum results n the independence f the Nagrn Karabakh Republic, Nagrn-Karabakh Republic's Declaratin f Independence, Yerevan, 1995, pp (translated frm Russian). 22 Self-determinatin can be realized nly within the framewrk f Azerbaijan s territrial integrity. Once mre n Azrebaijan s principle psitins n the Armenian-Azerbaijani cnflict settlement issue. Day.Az, May 14, 2008 (http://www.day.az/print/news/plitics/ html) (translated frm Russian); see als: Azerbaijan will prvide cnditins fr the tw cmmunities in Karabakh. BBC, Russian.cm, March 23, 2009 (http://news.bbc.c.uk/hi/russian/internatinal/newsid_ / stm) (translated frm Russian). 23 Cuncil f Eurpe. Venice Cmmissin. The Official site f the Venice Cmmissin (http://www.venice.ce.int/dcs/2005/cdl-ad(2005)029-e.asp); see als: Azerbaijan is changing the Cnstitutin. REGNUM, March 18, 2009 (http://www.regnum.ru/news/ html) (translated frm Russian). 24 Cnstitutin f the Republic f Azerbaijan, Article 11 - state brders f the Azerbaijan Republic might be changed nly by free decisin f its peples made by way f referendum declared by the Parliament [Milli Majlis] f the Azerbaijan Republic.. See: CSCE. Helsinki Final Act, August 1, Principle VIII. OSCE (www.sce.rg/dcuments/msc/1975/08/4044_ru.pdf); see als: Internatinal Cvenant n Civil and Plitical Rights. UN GA Reslutin 2200 A (XXI), December 16, UN Centre fr Human Rights. Human Rights: Internatinal Treaty Cllectin; Internatinal Cvenant n Ecnmic, Scial and Cultural Rights. UN GA Reslutin 2200 A (XXI), December 16, 1966, UN Centre fr Human Rights. Human Rights: Internatinal Treaty Cllectin. 25 Ilham Aliyev: Nagrn-Karabakh will never be granted independence. Ilham Aliyev s statement at the Security Cuncil sessin. Day.Az, April 7, 2009 (http://www.day.az/news/plitics/ html) (translated frm Russian); see als: Karabakh will never be independent: Ilham Aliyev. REGNUM, April 8, 2009 (http://www.regnum.ru/news/fdabrad/karabax/ html ) (translated frm Russian); see als: Ilham Aliyev: The internatinal cmmunity realizes Armenia s wrngness but turns a blind eye t it. Day.Az, April 18, 2008 (http://www.day.az/news/plitics/ html) (translated frm Russian); see als: Ilham Aliyev: I want t restate that the time desn t wrk in favur f Armenia at all, just the cntrary, n internatinal aid, believe me, will help them this time. Day.Az, September 13, 2007 (http://www.day.az/news/plitics/91887.html) (translated frm Russian). 26 Aliyev cncedes the war resumptin in Karabakh. Lenta.ru, July 10, 2006 (http://lenta.ru/news/2006/07/10/aliev/ ) (translated frm Russian); see als: The prbability f the war resumptin increases : Nagrn-Karabakh in the last week. REGNUM, July 13, 2007 (http://www.regnum.ru/news/ html) (translated frm Russian); see als: Azerbaijan is ready t return Nagrn-Karabakh by frce. Lenta.ru, January 24,2006 (http://lenta.ru/news/2006/01/24/war/) (translated frm Russian). 6

7 27 Bishkek Prtcl. Ministry f Freign Affairs, the Nagrn-Karabakh Republic (http://www.nkr.am/ ru/dcument/43/) (translated frm Russian). 28 The Official site f the United Natins Missin in Ksv (UNMIK) (http://www.unmiknline.rg/); see als: OSCE Missin in Ksv. The Official site f the OSCE (http://www.sce.rg/ksv/). 7

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