The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Tahmid Mizan June 27, 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1
Global fundamentals 2
Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 214 Level Percent GDP 1% 75% 5% 25% Demand Population % 214 24 Carbon Emissions 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 213 Index 1. Norway Germany United States.75 Brazil Bangladesh India China.5 Nigeria.25 Niger. 1 1 1 1 Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day) 4 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 24 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China 2.% per year 3.4% 3.5% 5.5% 5.% $72 Trillion (21$) Key Growth countries include: Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Egypt, Thailand, South Africa, Iran, Mexico*, Turkey* ~$15 Trillion (21$) 5 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Progress Drives Demand Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 21$ Quadrillion BTUs 21 16 14 18 12 15 12 1 12 9 8 8 6 Energy Savings 6 3 Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* 2 22 24 4 2 22 24 4 2 2 22 24 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 6 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Energy Intensity Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (21$) 15 214 1 5 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 7 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Emissions 8
CO 2 Policy Assumptions Vary by Region 24 CO 2 Proxy Cost < 1 $/ton ~ 2 $/ton ~ 35 $/ton ~ 8 $/ton 9 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Biomass 4 Renewables 75% Nuclear 3 Rest of World Gas Key Growth 5% 2 India Coal China 25% 1 Oil OECD* % 214 24 2 22 24 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 1 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Transportation 11
Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 Rail 5 Marine Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 25 Light Duty 2 22 24 12 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Fleet by Type Million Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon 18 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell 75 16 14 Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel 6 12 1 Gasoline 45 Average Fleet 8 6 4 2 3 15 Europe U.S. 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 21 22 23 24 13 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Industrial 14
Industrial Demand By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 3 3 2 Chemical 2 Electricity Biomass Coal 1 Heavy Industry 1 Gas Energy Industry Oil Other 198 21 24 198 21 24 15 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Chemicals Demand Grows Globally By Sector MBDOE 4 By Region MBDOE 4 3 3 Other Chemicals Asia Pacific 2 2 Africa Middle East 1 Steam Cracking 1 Russia/Caspian Latin America Europe Fertilizer 2 22 24 North America 2 22 24 16 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Chemicals Demand Sees Significant Growth By Sector Ethylene Production MBDOE MTA 4 3 3 Other Chemicals 2 Rest of World 2 1 Steam Cracking 1 Asia Pacific Fertilizer 2 22 24 21 225 24 North America 17 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Chemicals Energy Demand by Region North America MBDOE Europe MBDOE Asia Pacific MBDOE 16 16 16 Other Oil 12 12 12 Naphtha 8 8 8 Gas Liquids Gas 4 4 4 Coal ' '1 '2 '3 '4 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 Electricity/Heat 18 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Electricity generation 19
Electricity Grows in Developing Economies Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh 4 Per Capita Demand MWh per person 15 214 United States 3 Rest of World 1 2 1 Key Growth India China OECD* United States 2 22 24 5 198 21 24 China Europe Key Growth India *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves By Generation Type Thousand TWh 4 Global Capacity Utilized GW 15 3 Gas 1 2 Coal 24 24 1 Nuclear Wind & Solar 5 214 21 Oil Other Renewables 2 22 24 Nuclear Wind Solar 21 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
A Shift in Electricity Generation Change in Electricity Net Delivered 214-24 Thousand TWh Gas Net Wind/Solar Nuclear Other Renewables Coal OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World Oil -2 2 4 6 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 22 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Two Paths to CO 2 Reduction United States Generation Share Percent Germany Generation Share Percent CO 2 Intensity of Generation g CO 2 /kwh delivered 1% Oil Other Renewables 1% 8 Wind & Solar 75% Nuclear 75% 6 25 212 5% Gas 5% 4 25% 25% 2 Coal % 25 212 % 25 212 United States Germany 23 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 3 4 25 25 2 1 15 1 5 2122524 Electricity 2122524 Industrial 2122524 Transportation 2122524 Res/Comm Generation 24 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 3 25 2 1 25 4 Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 15 1 5 2122524 Electricity 2122524 Industrial Transportation 2122524 2122524 Res/Comm Generation 25 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25.7% Average Growth / Yr. 214-24 2 214 1.6%.9% 15 -.2% 1 5.3% 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 26 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Supply 27
Liquids Supply World Supply by Type MBDOE Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates Trillion Barrels 12 8 4 Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater New Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate 6 4 2 2 22 24 1981 199 2 214 Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates 28 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Major New Liquids by Region MBDOE 24 24 24 24 Biofuels 2 Oil Sands 2 2 2 16 16 16 16 12 Tight Oil 12 12 12 8 Deepwater 8 8 8 4 NGLs 4 4 4 21 225 24 21 225 24 21 225 24 21 225 24 North America Latin America Middle East Africa 29 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Remaining Global Gas Resource 6.5 4.2 1.3 North America Europe OECD 4.2 Russia/ Caspian* 5. 1 TCF 3 25 2 15 1 5 World 2.9 Unconventional Latin America Conventional Source: IEA; YE 214 *Includes Europe Non OECD 3.5 Africa Middle East Asia Pacific 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Unconventional Gas Technology U.S. Dry Gas Production BCFD 8 Rig Count 1 Potential Improvements via Technology 6 4 2 75 5 25 Water Recycle Slick Water Pad Drilling Spudder Rigs Vertical Simultaneous Integration Operations Automated LNG rigs Drilling Dual Laterals Computer Modelling Reduced Emissions Completions Increase Lateral Length Artificial Lift Downspacing Frac Spacing 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: Wood Mackenzie / EIA / Baker Hughes 31 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living. Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards. Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 32 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy
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