Norsk gass og det skandinaviske energimarked. Thor Otto Lohne, Direktør, Gassco

Transcription

1 Norsk gass og det skandinaviske energimarked Thor Otto Lohne, Direktør, Gassco Fyn, 19. november 2009

2 Gassco A neutral and independent operator for the integrated gas transport system from the Norwegian continental shelf to European countries Owned 100 % by the Norwegian State Main tasks: Operator (asset mgmt.) System operations (flow mgmt.) Capacity management Infrastructure development The Norwegian State GASSCO 1. Operator 2. System operations 3. Capacity Management 4. Infrastructure development GASSLED ConocoPhillips Eni ExxonMobil StatoilHydro Petoro Total Shell Dong Offices/operation in Norway, Germany, Belgium and France Technical Service Providers ConocoPhillips Total StatoilHydro Centrica

3 The Norwegian gas value chain in a nutshell Upstream Transportation Processing Tampen area Gas pipelines Kårstø

4 The gas transportation system in more detail km of offshore pipelines - large diameter high pressure 2 world scale gas processing plants Kollsnes and Kårstø 7 gas terminals Germany, Belgium, France and UK 387 mill. Sm 3 /d gas export capacity From annual report 2008: 4

5 Kollsnes gas processing plant mill. Sm 3 /d rich gas processing capacity 1.06 mill. tons of NGL production 33.8 BCM equal to 35 % of the Norwegian gas supplies in 2008

6 Kårstø gas processing plant 88 mill. Sm 3 /d rich gas processing capacity 7.57 mill. tons of NGL production 25.1 BCM sales gas equal to 25% of the Norwegian gas supplies in 2008

7 Good track record Gas deliveries to Europe has almost doubled since Gassco was established No loss of life, no major accident Facilities and installations operated within prevailing emission permits % regularity to market in 2008

8 Fossil fuels and gas will continue to dominate the energy balance towards 2030 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008

9 Renewable energy - hard to increase output to a scale that will satisfy demand CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION* HEATING [MAXIMUM CONCEIVABLE SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION] MANUFACTURING TIDE SOLAR TRANSPORT WIND All measured in kwh / day / person Physics Professor David JC MacKay give us some indication on the potential for renewable energy in his book Sustainable Energy without the hot air *) Ignoring economic, social and environmental contraints

10 It will take very much renewable energy production to cover today s demand (example from UK) Example: 50 km per day in an average car needs 40 kwh / d / p Example: One return flight London Los Angles per year equals 30 kwh / d / p Light 4 kwh Car Jet flight Heating cooling Food & Fertilizer kwh numbers are on a per day basis Stuff Transporting stuff 40 kwh 30 kwh 37 kwh Solar Heating PV farm 11 kwh 5 kwh 14 kwh 48 kwh 12 kwh Gadgets 5 kwh Shallow offshore wind 16 kwh Wind PV farm, 200 m 2 Biomass Hydro Deep offshore wind Wave and tide 20 kwh 50 kwh 24 kwh 15 kwh 32 kwh 15 kwh Example: Wind mills covering 10% of UK will provide 20 kwh / d / p (equals 50 times Denmarks current production, and twice the world s total production today) Example: Solar panels on 5% of the country gives 50 kwh / d / p Example: 15 offshore windmills per km along the whole coast of UK gives 16 kwh / d /p (total of windmills)

11 In IEA s low carbon scenario, gas is the only fossil fuel to have higher demand in 2050 than today Primary energy demand Million tonnes oil equivalent Coal Oil 2005 Business as usual, 2050 For a 50% reduction in CO 2 by 2050 Gas Nuclear Biomass Other renewables Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives

12 European gas consumption is expected to increase Forecasted European gas consumption IEA CERA BCM Source: IEA Natural Gas Market review 2008 Source: Financial Times, September

13 Where are the gas reserves? Production and consumption of gas for top 14 gas reserve holders End BCM Production Consumption na Russia Iran Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE USA Nigeria Venezuela Algeria Iraq* Indonesia Norway Australia Malaysia Reserves -TCM R/P ratio 72 >100 > > >100 > >100 > Source: BP statistical review of world energy, June 2009 *) 2007

14 The Norwegian Continental Shelf has large gas volumes left Total gas volumes NCS Gas Volume [GSm3] NCS Barents Sea Norwegian Sea North Sea Produced gas RC 1-3 RC 4-7 Undiscovered Source: NPD, status pr

15 Several factors drive gas infrastructure development New gas volumes upstream Regularity Quality issues Increased flexibility Gas infrastructure development on NCS is a continuous task Upgrades of existing infrastructure New major infrastructure New market opportunities

16 What happened in the dry gas market Gas demand in Europe and in other major economies is weakening Unconventional gas developments in North America have changed the scene More than 60 GSm³ of new liquefaction capacity will come on line in 2009 putting further pressure on the market

17 Wet gas and petrochemical prices have also fallen substantially LPG free on board North Sea Polyethylene (PE) price, Europe USD pmt % % Propane Butane Summer 08 October 2009 Source: Fearnleys Source: London Metal Exchange

18 Petrochemical capacity is being closed in Europe European plant closures % of installed 2007 petrochemical capacity 16,0 4,2 Potential closures by 2012E Announced closures as of Sept , ,6 5, ,4 11, , ,2 0 Ethylene Polyethylene + Polypropylene Styrenics + Polystyrene Source: Total Chemicals

19 Market changes influence Gassco s daily work Dry Gas [MSm³/d] Existing Infrastructure Total Deliveries High Scenario Volume Level Existing Infrastructure Total Deliveries High Scenario Volume Level - Postponed Start-up New Fields Additional gas 380 Norwegian Sea Booked Base Case Request Medium Scenario 350? High Scenario Existing Infrastructure with B11 Existing Infrastructure without B Transport Plan Booked Base Case Request Medium Scenario 260 High Scenario Existing Infrastructure with B11 Existing Infrastructure without B Projects delayed New volume levels uncertain Dry Gas [MSm³/d]

20 Development portfolio main projects DG1 DG2 DG3 DG4 DG5 Transport Plan Pre-feasib. Feasibility Study Concept Selection Prep. for Execution Execution Operation 1. Kårstø Projects 2. Kollsnes Projects X 3. Skanled 4. Gudrun Light Oil to Kårstø Jan-09 Jan-10 April-09 Oct /11/ Gas Infrastructure Reinforcement 6. Norwegian Sea Gas Infrastructure Nov-09 Jan-10* Dec-10* Dec-11* TBD TBD TBD 2014* 2016* * Tentative = Ongoing phase = Future phase = Discontinued = Prepar. to start phase 20

21 Development of gas in the Norwegian sea Development of new gas resources Development of transport infrastructure Development of onshore facilities Development of exit capacity to meet market needs/changes

22 Norway has set ambitious targets for CO2 emission reductions Domestic targets Norway s CO 2 emission targets for 2020/2030* Soria Moria 2 further increased emission reduction targets International targets EU Climate and Energy targets: (?) Reduce GHG emissions by 20% within 2020 (or 30% if global deal with firm and ambitious commitments from all parties is reached) relative to 1990 level (?) (30) IPCC : 2006 emission Expected increase in emissions 2020 emisisons Target reduction in Norway Further reductions (outside Norway) Emission target in 2020 Target is carbon neutrality in 2030* 25-40% cut in developed country emissions by 2020, relative to 1990, is needed to set world on path to meeting a 2050 target (50% percent cut in emissions) CO 2 emissions in Mt per year Sources: Konkraft report # 5, Klimaforliket, Klimakur 2020 rapport: Vurdering av fremtidige kvotepriser, Financial Times

23 All costs, risks and opportunities related to CO 2 emissions are driven by regulation Regulation range Cost efficiency Control Indirect regulation. Price on CO 2 (tax or quota) full offset flexibility Hybrid (Price on CO 2 and direct measures) Direct regulation (imposed initiatives) Difficult to predict CO 2 - regulation. However, some issues should be taken for granted: 1. There will be a price of CO 2 emissions 2. Influencing direct regulation will be important

24 Gassco is involved in several projects related to reducing CO 2 emissions Externally (politically) driven Directly integrated in current operations Kårstø integration Remove CO 2 from the flue gas at Kårstø (CO 2 blending in gas) CCTS (Kårstø and Mongstad) CO 2 industry cluster R&D CO 2 pipeline transport Business development type operations Buy CO 2 emission quotas EU project (FP07) CO2 transport systems Standards for CO 2 pipeline transport Internally (business) driven Gassco believes that being closely involved in CO 2 -related activities represents an opportunity for an active and value creating approach to the climate change challenge