Benchmarking Travel & Tourism Global Summary

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1 Benchmarking Travel & Tourism Global Summary How does Travel & Tourism compare to other sectors? Sponsored by: Summary of Findings, November 2013

2 Outline Introduction... 3 Summary of research structure.. 4 Sectors referenced... 5 Global sectors summary.. 8 Trade summary Data sources and methodology About WTTC and Oxford Economics

3 Introduction The (WTTC) has spearheaded global analysis of the economic importance of the sector for over 20 years. This research has established the contribution of Travel & Tourism on an ongoing basis to over 180 countries in absolute size, share of the economy, and growth. Around the world, WTTC research is referenced as the authoritative source of the role of Tourism in generating GDP, income, and employment. WTTC is now releasing new research on the role that Travel & Tourism plays in the world economy in comparison to other economic sectors. The results of these comparisons provide new perspectives on the relative significance of Travel & Tourism as well as some of its unique advantages in driving current and future global economic growth. 3

4 Summary of Research Structure This updated WTTC research benchmarks Travel & Tourism against an assortment of other sectors for twenty-five countries and for each world region. Regions World Americas Europe Asia Pacific Middle East Africa Countries Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China Colombia France Germany India Indonesia Italy Jamaica Japan Mexico Montenegro Peru Russia Serbia South Africa South Korea Thailand Turkey UAE United Kingdom USA 4

5 Summary of Research Structure The following metrics are analysed by sector for each country and region: GDP (size and share of economy) Employment contribution (size and share of economy) Historic growth Expected growth 5

6 Sectors referenced The following sectors have been analysed in comparison to Travel & Tourism. They were selected as having a similar breadth and global presence as Travel & Tourism. Mining: includes the extraction of oil, natural gas, coal, metals, and related services Education: includes all levels of educational services Higher Education: includes learning that occurs at universities, academies, colleges, seminaries, and institutes of technology Chemicals : includes drugs & medicines, manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, plastics, rubber, paint, polishes, ink, perfumes, cosmetics, soap, cleaning materials, fertilizer, pesticides, other chemicals Automotive : includes motor vehicles and parts & accessories Communications: includes post (national and private) and telecommunications Banking: includes all banking activities and related services. Financial services: includes banking, investment services, insurance 6

7 Levels of industry impacts The analysis examines the economic value of industries on three levels. Direct: this includes only those employees and the related value added for the relevant sector. In the case of Travel & Tourism, we only count the value added of the accommodation, recreation, transportation, and other related sectors. ACCOMMODATION Indirect: this measures the supply chain impact (also called inter-industry linkages) for each sector. Induced: this measures the impacts of incomes earned directly and indirectly as they are spent in the local economy. The sum of direct, indirect, and induced impacts equals the total economic impact of a sector. 7

8 Global Sector Summary How does Travel & Tourism compare to other sectors? 8

9 Key findings: Global Direct GDP ($) At $US 2.1 trillion in 2013, Travel & Tourism direct industry GDP represents nearly 2.9% of global GDP and is larger than the chemicals, higher education, and automotive sectors. Travel & Tourism directly generates more than double the GDP of automotive and is nearly 40% larger than the global chemicals industry. Travel & Tourism is threequarters the size of the global education, banking, communications, and mining sectors. Global Direct GDP by Industry in 2013 $US billions (2012 prices) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Automotive Higher education Chemicals Travel & Tourism Education Banking Mining Communication services Industry GDP % of Global ($US billions) GDP Financial services 5, % Communication services 3, % Mining 3, % Banking 2, % Education 2, % Travel & Tourism 2, % Chemicals 1, % Higher education 1, % Automotive % Total 73, % Financial services 9

10 Key findings: Global Total GDP Contribution ($) At $US 6.8 trillion in 2013, the GDP impact of Travel & Tourism is larger than that of some of the largest sectors namely automotive and chemicals. Global GDP Impact by Industry $US billion (2012 prices) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Indirect & Induced Direct Travel & Tourism s total economic impact exceeds that of the mining sector and nearly equals that of the global education sector. 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Higher education Automotive Chemicals Mining Travel & Tourism Education Banking Communication services Financial services 10

11 Key findings: Global Total GDP Impact (share) At 9.3% of global GDP, Travel & Tourism generates more economic output than higher education (3.4%), automotive (8.0%), mining (8.7%), chemicals (8.7%). Travel & Tourism contributes roughly the same share of global GDP as the global education and banking industries. Travel & Tourism generates about half what the global financial services industry contributes. Global GDP Impact by Industry share of total economy GDP 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Higher education Indirect & Induced Direct Automotive Chemicals Mining Travel & Tourism Education Banking Communication services Financial services 11

12 Key findings: Regional Direct GDP Travel & Tourism directly contributes more to GDP than automotive in every region of the world. In the Americas, Travel & Tourism GDP is nearly three times larger than auto. In Europe, Travel & Tourism GDP is more than twice the size of auto. Global GDP for All Sectors $US billions (2012 prices) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Mining Chemicals Automotive Communication services Education Higher education Financial services Banking Travel & Tourism Travel & Tourism GDP is larger than the chemicals industry in every world region except Asia, where it is 8% smaller Americas Europe Asia Pacific Middle East Africa 12

13 Key findings: Global Direct Employment In terms of employment, the importance of Travel & Tourism is even more pronounced. With 102 million people directly employed in 2013, Travel & Tourism directly employs: 5 times more than automotive 5 times more than the global chemicals industry Global Direct Employment by Industry in (000s) 160, ,000 80,000 40,000 4 times more than the global mining industry 0 2 times more than the global banking industry 2 times more than the global communications industry 15% more than the global financial services industry Automotive Chemicals Higher education Mining Banking Communication services Financial services Travel & Tourism Education 13

14 Key findings: Global Total Employment With a total impact of 8.8% of world employment, Travel & Tourism is one of the leading job creators in the world. Travel & Tourism sustained 266 million jobs in This exceeds the jobs impacts of chemicals, banking, mining, automotive, and higher education. It is nearly on par with education. Global Employment Impact by Industry Global Employment Impact by Industry share of total economy employment 2012, millions 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% Indirect & Induced Direct Indirect & Induced Direct 8.0% % 4.0% 2.0% % Higher education Automotive Mining Banking Chemicals Travel & Tourism Education Communication services Financial services 0 Higher education Automotive Mining Banking Chemicals Travel & Tourism Education Communication services Financial services 14

15 Key findings: Regional Manufacturing Employment Travel & Tourism directly sustains more jobs than the automotive and chemicals industries combined across every region of the world. Travel & Tourism employment in Europe - reaching 27 million in exceeds auto by a factor of 9. In Asia, there are five times as many Travel & Tourism jobs as auto jobs and four times as many chemicals jobs. Global Direct Employment in 2012 (000s) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, mn Chemicals Automotive Travel & Tourism Americas Europe Asia Pacific Middle East Africa 15

16 Key findings: Regional Employment in other sectors In almost every region of the world, Travel & Tourism directly sustains more jobs than the mining, communications, education, higher education, financial service and banking sectors. The only exception is Asia Pacific, where financial services sustains slightly more jobs than Travel & Tourism. Direct Employment in 2013 (000s) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Mining Communication services Education Higher education Financial services Banking Travel & Tourism 0 Americas Europe Asia Pacific Middle East Africa 16

17 World GDP Growth The Oxford Economics global industry model projects Travel & Tourism direct industry GDP to grow 4.2% per annum (compound annual growth) over the next decade. This is greater growth than forecast for the higher education, automotive, education, and mining sectors, as well as the total global economy, which Oxford Economics expects to grow 3.6% per annum through World GDP Forecast by Industry CAGR% % 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.2% Mining 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% Education Automotive Higher education Total economy 4.2% Travel & Tourism 4.3% 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% Communication services Financial services Chemicals Banking 17

18 World Employment Growth The Oxford Economics global industry model projects Travel & Tourism direct industry employment to grow 1.8% per annum (compound annual growth) over the next decade. This is greater growth than forecast for the automotive and chemicals sectors as well as the total global economy, which Oxford Economics expects to grow 1.0% per annum through World Employment Forecast by Industry CAGR% % 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -0.4% Mining 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Total economy Automotive Chemicals 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% Communication services Travel & Tourism Financial services Education 2.5% 2.7% Banking Higher education 18

19 Trade Summary How does Travel & Tourism compare to other sectors? 19

20 Key findings: Total Exports Foreign visitor exports represent a substantial share of exports around the world, forming an essential component of global trade. Tourism generated 9% of all UAE exports (including oil) and 13% of Turkey s exports in In industrialised economies such as the UK, Australia, Italy, US, and France, Tourism still generated more than 5% of total exports in Travel & Tourism Share of TotalExports (2013) Japan China Germany Brazil South Korea Canada Russia Mexico India Indonesia Colombia UK Argentina Italy Peru Serbia Australia France US UAE South Africa Thailand Turkey Montenegro Jamaica 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% Average = 5% 12% 13% 49% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 51% 20

21 Key findings: Service Exports Visitor receipts represent a substantial share of national service exports around the world, generating foreign exchange and financial stability especially for emerging economies. For example, more than half of all service exports are generated by Travel & Tourism in France, Colombia, Turkey, Mexico, South Africa, Montenegro, Peru, Thailand, Jamaica, and the UAE. In addition to Travel & Tourism, examples of service exports include architectural, construction, and engineering services, education and training services, banking, financial, and insurance services, information services, and professional business services. On average, service exports represent 19% of all exports in the countries included in the study. Travel & Tourism Share of ServiceExports (2013) India UK Japan Germany South Korea Canada Brazil China US Serbia Russia Italy Australia Indonesia Argentina France Colombia Turkey Mexico South Africa Montenegro Peru Thailand Jamaica 13% 13% 15% 17% 18% 20% 22% 28% 28% 29% 30% 38% 41% 41% 42% Average = 28% 56% 62% 68% 69% 72% 73% 75% 75% 78% Between 28% and 50% of service exports are generated by Travel & Tourism in the US, China, Russia, Australia, Italy, Argentina, and Indonesia. In countries such as South Africa, Peru, Thailand, Jamaica, and the UAE, Travel & Tourism represents more than 70% of total exports. UAE 98% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 21

22 Data Sources & Methodology How does Travel & Tourism compare to other sectors? 22

23 Data sources and methodology: GDP and Employment Main data sources for comparative sectors: United Nations International Labour Organization; OECD; CEIC Data Manager; Eurostat (European Commission); UK Office for National Statistics (ONS); Oxford Economics Cities and Regions Forecasting Service; UNESCO; Groningen Growth and Development Centre; UN World Input-Output Database (WIOD); Oxford Economics Global Industry Model; Oxford Economics Global Economic Model; Oxford Economics UK Regional Model; and Various country-specific National Statistics Office websites Travel & Tourism GDP and employment figures are drawn from Oxford Economics analysis for WTTC using the Tourism Satellite Account framework. 23

24 Data sources and methodology: Exports Main data sources: World Trade Organization (WTO) IMFBOPA Oxford Economics. Total exports, total service exports and total goods/merchandise exports are sourced originally to national accounts and central bank balance of payments data. Service exports taken from IMFBOPA database for all countries where possible figures taken from above, 2013 estimated using 2012 shares of total and applied to totals for All currency figures are stated in 2012 US dollars. 24

25 Data sources and methodology: Linkages Main data sources: OECD, National Statistical Offices, Oxford Economics Input-output tables for all countries were sourced from either the OECD or, when not available, National Statistical Offices. From the input-output tables, multiplier matrices were developed for each economy, detailing the flow of spending in an economy that occurs as a consequence of spending in a given industry. For each of the comparator sectors, a spending shock of $1 million was simulated, with the resulting spending impacts in every industry in the economy recorded. These spending outcomes were translated into gross value added (GVA) using the GVA/output ratios available in the input-output tables, and employment, using productivity level data developed from the GDP and employment figures derived elsewhere in the study. Travel & Tourism multipliers are drawn from Oxford Economics / WTTC ongoing Tourism Satellite Account analysis. Global and regional multipliers were calculated as the weighted average of all relevant nations, with weightings assigned according to sector GDP. 25

26 About WTTC and Oxford Economics The (WTTC) is the forum for business leaders in the Travel & Tourism industry. With Chief Executives of some one hundred of the world's leading Travel & Tourism companies as its Members, WTTC has a unique mandate and overview on all matters related to Travel & Tourism. WTTC works to raise awareness of Travel & Tourism as one of the world's largest industries, supporting 260 million jobs and generating 9 per cent of world GDP in WTTC advocates partnership between the public and private sectors, delivering results that match the needs of economies, local and regional authorities and local communities with those of business. Oxford Economics is one of the world s leading providers of economic analysis, forecasts and consulting advice. Founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University s business college, Oxford Economics enjoys a reputation for high quality, quantitative analysis and evidencebased advice. For this, its draws on its own staff of over 70 highly-experienced professional economists; a dedicated data analysis team; global modeling tools, and a range of partner institutions in Europe, the US and in the United Nations Project Link. Oxford Economics has offices in New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Chicago, London, Oxford, Belfast, Dubai, and Singapore. 26

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