World Energy Outlook. Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Paris, 27 February 2014

Transcription

1 World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Paris, 27 February 2014

2 The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO 2 emissions continue to rise Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in billion people still lack electricity in Africa and South Asia Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity

3 The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe) Share of global growth United States Brazil Europe Africa Middle East Eurasia India China Japan Southeast Asia Africa Middle East Latin America 8% 10% Eurasia 8% 5% OECD 4% 65% Non-OECD Asia China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth

4 A mix that is slow to change Growth in total primary energy demand Gas Coal Renewables Oil Nuclear Mtoe 25 years ago the share of fossil fuels in the global mix was 82%; it is the same today & the strong rise of renewables in the future only reduces this to around 75% in 2035

5 Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in Paris Cumulative energy-related CO 2 emissions Gt 800 Total emissions Non-OECD Non-OECD 49% OECD 200 OECD 51% Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD

6 Increasing subsidies for increasing renewables Renewable-energy subsidies by region in 2012 Rest of the world India China 2% 7% 13% $101 billion 57% European Union 21% United States Renewables subsidies increased to $101 billion in 2012, more than half of which are in the European Union; renewables subsidies are set to more than double by 2035.

7 Who has the energy to compete? Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States 5 Natural gas Electricity 4 3 Reduction from United States Japan European Union China Japan European Union China Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist

8 Energy-intensive industries need to count their costs Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Petrochemicals Fertilisers Aluminium Cement Iron & steel Pulp & paper Glass Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.

9 An energy boost to the economy? Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods European Union +1% Japan +3% +2% +2% Today 36% 10% 7% 7% 3% 2% United States China Middle East India -3% -10% The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share for energy-intensive goods, while the EU & and Japan see see a sharp a sharp decline

10 LNG from the United States can shake up gas markets Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices) $/MBtu $/MBtu Average import price Liquefaction, shipping & regasification United States price To Asia To Europe New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price

11 Orientation for a fast-changing energy world China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global energy demand & trade Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East remains central to the longer-term outlook Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here to stay, but there are ways to react with efficiency first in line The transition to a more efficient, low-carbon energy sector is more difficult in tough economic times, but no less urgent