BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT
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1 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 8 APRIL 2014 MICHAEL LIEBREICH CHAIRMAN OF THE ADVISORY BOARD #BNEF2014 Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF2014 1
2 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) 21% $318bn -10% $286bn -11% 17% 34% 0.6% $195bn $196bn $262bn $254bn 44% $167bn 46% $55bn 45% $80bn $116bn Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF2014 2
3 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) 21% $318bn -10% $286bn -11% 17% 34% 0.6% $195bn $196bn $262bn $254bn 44% $167bn 46% $55bn 45% $80bn $116bn Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF2014 3
4 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) Europe North America & Caribbean '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Asia & Oceania '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Central & South America Middle East & Africa '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 ' '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF2014 4
5 EUROPEAN POLICY SUPPORT SCHEMES UNDER REVIEW 2013 Comprehensive review under way Retroactive changes implemented ( ) Suspended Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF2014 5
6 CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS (GW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF2014 6
7 THE CLEANTECH CRASH? Source: Tesla, Nest, OPower Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF2014 7
8 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD NEX NEX S&P 500 S&P 500 Dow Jones Dow Jones MSCI World & Emerging MSCI World & Emerging Note: Values as of 30 March 2014; indices rebased to 100 on 01 Jan Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF2014 8
9 PRICE COMPETITIVE CLEAN ENERGY: 2014 (LCOE) 37 $/MWh onshore wind 37 $/MWh geothermal 80 $/MWh solar Note: Levelised cost of electricity excludes impact of subsidies. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF2014 9
10 DRIVERS OF REDUCED ASSET INVESTMENT $251.5 bn -20% -4.7% $ 191.7bn Investment 2011 Price impact Volume impact Investment 2013 Note: based on a high level calculation of global figures for all renewable energy sectors. Impacts of regional and sector shifts are internalised here. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
11 CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS (GW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
12 CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS (GW) Installations forecast to grow 37% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
13 GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW) FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES Forecast Nuclear Forecast 264 Marine Oil Gas Coal Solar Wind Biomass & waste Geotherm Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
14 2014 BNEF SUMMIT THEME PHASE CHANGE: NEW MARKET STRUCTURES NEW BUSINESS MODELS Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
15 PHASE CHANGE Phase Change (n): A change in a feature of a physical system that results in a discrete transition of that system to another state. Source: Wikipedia Commons; The Free Dictionary Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
16 ENERGIEWENDE 1: CHANGES IN GENERATING MIX (TWH) Q1 2014: Renewable energy provided 28% of German electricity Thermal Other renewables Biomass- & liquids PV Wind Hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BMWI Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
17 ENERGIEWENDE 2: INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE POWER GENERATING CAPACITY ($ BN) Cumulative capex spent $166 billion Other Wind Solar Note: Investment figures includes asset finance and small distributed capacity investment. Biofuels and other non-power generation sectors excluded. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
18 ENERGIEWENDE 3: CAPACITY VS. POWER CONSUMPTION GW 200 TWh Renewables Fossil and nuclear Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BMWI Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
19 ENERGIEWENDE 3: CAPACITY VS. POWER CONSUMPTION GW Gross power consumption Power consumption + 3.5% Generating Capacity % TWh Renewables Fossil and nuclear Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BMWI Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
20 ENERGIEWENDE 4: IMPACT ON RETAIL PRICES US FIXED LINE VS. MOBILE PRICES ($/MIN) GERMAN FIT VS. RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICES (EUR/MWH) Mobile Feed-in tariff <10kW Land line Res. power price Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg L.P., BSW Solar, Eurostat, Federal Communications Commission Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
21 ENERGIEWENDE 5: IMPACT ON WHOLESALE PRICES DARK SPREADS (EUR/MWH) SPARK SPREADS (EUR/MWH) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg L.P. Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
22 ENERGIEWENDE 6: GERMANY S FIVE QUESTIONS 1. How to reduce subsidy costs? 2. How to allocate cost between users? 3. How to remunerate the grid for new services? 4. How to ensure backup generating margin? 5. How to integrate with your neighbours? This is not a problem, it is a task. Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
23 ENERGIEWENDE 7: THE LADY S NOT FOR TURNING The most urgent problem for me is management and design of the Energiewende. Angela Merkel German Chancellor September 2013 Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
24 CHINA BENDING THE ARC 1: INVESTMENT NEW CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ($ BN) WIND AND SOLAR CAPACITY ADD (GW) Solar Wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Investment figures include all clean energy sectors (renewable power, biofuels, EST etc) and all new investment asset classes. Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
25 CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY , 2020 & 2030 GW Renewable energy 68% of new capacity Historic Forecast Biomass & waste Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
26 CHINA DECLARES WAR ON POLLUTION We will resolutely declare war against pollution as we declared war against poverty Li Keqiang Premier of the People's Republic of China March 2014 Credit: Bloomberg Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
27 CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY , 2020 & 2030 GW Historic Forecast Biomass & waste Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
28 ANNUAL SHARE OF WIND POWER IN TOTAL US GENERATION % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan-14 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
29 LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION ($/MWH) 350 PV - c-si PV - Thin Film Onshore Wind 50 0 Q Q Q Q Coal CCGT Note: LCOE excludes impact of subsidies and other support schemes. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
30 US WIND PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H H ($/MWH) Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 PJM MISO Mountain West NEPOOL NYISO SPP 250 MW Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. PPA price is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the year1 selling price. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
31 US SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H H ($/MWH) Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 AZ CA CO NM NV NY TX 250 MW Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. PPA price is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the year1 selling price. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
32 CUMULATIVE FUNDS CLOSED BY SELECTED THIRD- PARTY FINANCIERS JAN 2009-MAR 2014 ($M) 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Solar City Sunrun SunPower Clean Power Finance SunEdison Vivint Sungevity Note: This represents fund size; actual capital invested is lower and non-public. This figure may not include all non-public deals. Does not include all third-party financiers. Each fund contains an unknown combination of equity, tax equity or debt (or an absence of tax equity or debt). *The $300m Clean Power Finance fund raised on 3 May 2012 does not contain tax equity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
33 SMALL SOLAR SYSTEM PRICES IN GERMANY AND CALIFORNIA TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($/W) CALIFORNIA PREMIUM TO GERMANY Average California residential 127% 111% 103% 78% 4 2 Average sub- 10kW German 0 Q Q Q Q % 29% 51% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BSW Solar, California Solar Initiative Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
34 US AGE OF GAS UPDATE 1: VOLUME SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD (BCFD) Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Marcellus Eagle Ford Rest of US 'shale' Haynesville Fayetteville Barnett Woodford Bakken Antrim Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
35 AGE OF GAS UPDATE 2: PRICE HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS MONTHLY SPOT PRICE ($/MMBTU) April ($1.87) Today ($4.49) 6 February 2014 ($7.91) Jan 2002 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Note: Prices are nominal. Source: Bloomberg L.P., Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
36 MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS Canada Norway UK Poland Mexico USA Algeria Libya China Brazil Australia 200 trillion cubic feet Argentina South Africa Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April 2011 Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
37 ECONOMICS OF SHALE GAS FRACKING LIKELY PRICE RANGE ($/MMBTU) NO. OF SHALE GAS WELLS FRACKED UK 1 China 200 US 105, , , ,000 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Wall Street Journal Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
38 2013: THE YEAR OF TESLA Picture credits: Tesla Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
39 LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE ($/KWH) 10,000 EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK PRICES HAVE FALLEN 43% SINCE , H H ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Consumer LiB experience curve Historic consumer LiB prices BNEF EV LiB cost forecast Historic EV battery pack prices Cumulative prod. capacity (MWh) Note: Battery pack prices in 2010 dollars. Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
40 LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE ($/KWH) 10,000 EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK PRICES HAVE FALLEN 43% SINCE , H H Cost-competitiveness (by total cost of ownership) Tesla's Gigafactory ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Consumer LiB experience curve Historic consumer LiB prices BNEF EV LiB cost forecast Historic EV battery pack prices Cumulative prod. capacity (MWh) Note: Battery pack prices in 2010 dollars. Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
41 GLOBAL ANNUAL EV SALES 2011 & ,000,000 85,000,000 (4% CAGR) EVs 715,000 1,650,000 Hybrids (52% CAGR) 52, ,000 (99% CAGR) Total Note: Numbers are rounded. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
42 US CRUDE OIL (M BARRELS / DAY) PRODUCTION IMPORTS % since % since Source: EIA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
43 US CAR USE AND FUEL EFFICIENCY FUEL EFFICIENCY (MILES/GALLON) ANNUAL VEHICLE-DISTANCE TRAVELLED (1,000 MILES PER PERSON) % since % since Note: Mpg figures are sales weighted average. Total vehicle miles grew at 2.7% CAGR between 1971 and 2007 Source: US DOT, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
44 DRIVERS OF REDUCED US OIL IMPORTS, (AS % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION) Imports % Population growth +7% Miles / person -9% Gallons / mile -9% Domestic production -10% Imports % Note: percentages do not add due to rounding errors Source: EIA, UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
45 DRIVERS OF REDUCED US OIL IMPORTS, (AS % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION) Imports % Population growth +7% Miles / person -9% Gallons / mile -9% Domestic production -10% Imports % Note: percentages do not add due to rounding errors Source: EIA, UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
46 DRIVERS OF REDUCED US OIL IMPORTS, (AS % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION) Imports % Population growth +7% Miles / person -9% Gallons / mile -9% Domestic production -10% Imports % Note: percentages do not add due to rounding errors Source: EIA, UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
47 DRIVERS OF REDUCED US OIL IMPORTS, (AS % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION) Imports % Population growth +7% Miles / person -9% Gallons / mile -9% Domestic production -10% Imports % Note: percentages do not add due to rounding errors Source: EIA, UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
48 DRIVERS OF REDUCED US OIL IMPORTS, (AS % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION) Imports % Population growth +7% Miles / person -9% Gallons / mile -9% Domestic production -10% Imports % Note: percentages do not add due to rounding errors Source: EIA, UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
49 DRIVERS OF REDUCED US OIL IMPORTS, (AS % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION) Imports % Population growth +7% Miles / person -9% Gallons / mile -9% Domestic production -10% Imports % Note: percentages do not add due to rounding errors Source: EIA, UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
50 DRIVERS OF REDUCED US OIL IMPORTS, (AS % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION) Imports % Population growth +7% Miles / person -9% Gallons / mile -9% Domestic production -10% Imports % Increased production reduced imports by 10% of consumption Note: percentages do not add due to rounding errors Source: EIA, UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
51 DRIVERS OF REDUCED US OIL IMPORTS, (AS % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION) Imports % Population growth +7% Miles / person -9% Gallons / mile -9% Miles driven & improved gas mileage reduced imports by 18% of consumption Domestic production -10% Imports % Increased production reduced imports by 10% of consumption Note: percentages do not add due to rounding errors Source: EIA, UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
52 GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW) FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES Forecast Nuclear Forecast 264 Marine Oil Gas Coal Solar Wind Biomass & waste Geotherm Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
53 GERMAN HOURLY GENERATION PROFILE, (GW) Thousands JULY 2012 JULY Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
54 PHASE CHANGE Phase Change (n): A change in a feature of a physical system that results in a discrete transition of that system to another state. Source: Wikipedia Commons; The Free Dictionary Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
55 PHASE CHANGE NEWSPAPER REVENUE ($M) Total US newspaper ad revenue ($m) 60,000 50,000 40, Invention of the internet 1992 Invention of the browser 2006 Founding of Twitter 1997 Invention of the smartphone 30,000 20,000 10, years Source: Bloomberg L.P. Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
56 US AGE OF GAS UPDATE 1: VOLUME SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD (BCFD) Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Marcellus Eagle Ford Rest of US 'shale' Haynesville Fayetteville Barnett Woodford Bakken Antrim Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
57 US AGE OF GAS UPDATE 1: VOLUME SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD (BCFD) Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Rest of US 'shale' Haynesville Fayetteville Barnett Woodford Bakken Antrim Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
58 US TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, (QUADRILLION BTU) Other Renewable energy Nuclear Coal Natural gas Liquid fuels Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
59 US TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, (%) 5.5% 7.4% 8.3% 9.0% 9.7% 8.3% 8.2% 8.1% 7.9% 8.0% 22.3% 19.5% 18.4% 18.4% 17.6% 23.3% 26.7% 27.5% 29.1% 30.4% Other Renewable energy Nuclear Coal Natural gas Liquid fuels 39.9% 35.5% 36.3% 35.1% 34.8% Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
60 2014 BNEF SUMMIT THEME PHASE CHANGE: NEW MARKET STRUCTURES NEW BUSINESS MODELS Michael Liebreich BNEFSummit 2014 #BNEF
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