2014 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 2014

Transcription

1 14 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 14

2 Contents Global energy trends Liquid fuels Refining implications European focus Energy Outlook 35 BP 14

3 Primary energy consumption growth slows and the growth is almost all in the non-oecd Consumption by region Ten year increments by region Other. 1 India China.5 3 OECD Other non-oecd India China OECD Energy Outlook 35 BP 14

4 The slowdown in China and industry is reflected in a market slowdown in coal growth Consumption by fuel Coal Gas 3 Oil *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 35 Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Ten year increments by fuel Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil BP 14

5 Energy is gradually decoupling from economic growth and the fuel mix is slowly shifting away from fossil fuels GDP and energy Shares of primary energy Trillion $ GDP % 4% 3% Coal % Gas Oil 7 14 Energy (RHS) Energy Outlook 35 1% Hydro % Nuclear Renewables* *Includes biofuels BP 14

6 New sources help to supply sufficient energy to meet demand growth Primary energy production New energy forms 18 FSU 3 Renewables in power 18% 1 S & C America North hamerica Middle East Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels 1% Energy Outlook 35 Europe 1 % of total 6% Asia Pacific (RHS) Africa % BP 14

7 The global liquids balance reflects shifts in non-oecd demand and non-opec supply growth Demand Supply Other Mid East Other Asia India 35 level North America Other Crude NGLs 85 China 8 1 OECD decline Non-OECD 1 Non-OPEC OPEC growth growth growth Energy Outlook 35 BP 14

8 Liquids demand growth is largest in non-oecd transport, but growth in industry becomes increasingly important Demand by sector Five year increments Non-OECD transport OECD transport 4 3 Industry Transport 6 Non-OECD ind. & 4 other OECD ind. & other Power Energy Outlook 35 BP 14

9 Vehicle numbers are set to grow rapidly in the non-oecd, while OECD growth slows due to saturation Vehicle fleet Vehicle ownership Billions Vehicles per 1 people US. Germany 6 Japan China 1. Non-OECD.5 India OECD Transport demand 3 Non-OECD 1 OECD Energy Outlook 35 BP 14

10 Global transport demand growth slows, as prices and policy boost vehicle fuel economy Transport demand by fuel Five year increments by fuel 3 1 Electricity Gas Coal Biofuels Oil: Road Non-road Mtoe Energy Outlook 35 BP 14

11 Supply growth is supported initially by unconventionals, pushing the need for OPEC growth to later in the outlook Liquids supply by type Tight oil supply 1 1 1% Russia OPEC NGLs 1 China % of total South America (RHS) 8% OPEC crude 8 8 Canada & Mexico Biofuels US 6% 6 Oil sands 4% 4 4 Tight oil % Other non-opec % Energy Outlook 35 BP 14

12 Oil trade continues to shift from West to East, but Asia s import needs go beyond the Middle East US Regional imbalances China Net imports Tight oil 75 Middle East FSU Europe Asia Pacific 5 Africa S&C America Energy Outlook 35 BP 14

13 The growth of alternatives will challenge refiners, as will demand growth trends and crude market dynamics Cumulative liquids supply growth Cumulative liquids demand growth 15 1 Other* NGL RoW Crude US Crude Biofuels Condensate OPEC Crude 15 1 Lights Middles Fuel Oil Other Biofuels OECD *Includes GTL, CTL and refinery volume gain Energy Outlook BP 14

14 Energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy follow different patterns Energy intensity Carbon intensity Toe per thousand $1 GDP China US India EU World Tonnes CO per toe Energy Outlook 35 BP 14

15 Conclusion Implications of energy outlook on European refining Demand increased competition Reduction in OECD transport demand Growing supplies of non-refined products Supply - not advantaged Limited access to tight oil and shale gas Competing for crude with East of Suez refineries Sustainability Excess of capacity - squeezed between US & Asia Cost of lower carbon it intensityit Energy Outlook 35 BP 14