AOBA Utility Committee

Transcription

1 AOBA Utility Committee Energy Markets in Tailspin Major Economic Recession Continues to Pull Energy Prices Downward Where Will It End? Presented By Bruce R. Oliver President, Revilo Hill Associates, Inc. March 11, 2009

2 Will the Recession Bring an End to Extreme Energy Price Volatility? Sharp Rise in Energy Prices Contributed to Nation s Economic Slowdown But Falling Energy Prices Appear to Have Done Little to Revive Economic Activity March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 2

3 Driver s of Current Energy Prices Continuing Financing and Credit Issues Weakened U.S. and World Economies Growing Unemployment Record U.S. Natural Gas Production and Rising Natural Gas Inventories March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 3

4 The Decline in Stock Market Prices Since Its Peak in October 2007 Now Exceeds 50% March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 4

5 Percent of Workers Unemployed 9.0 U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate January 2007 Through February Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Month March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 5

6 Bcf of Natural Gas Produced U.S. Natural Gas Production Reaches Its Highest Level in More Than 30 Years 22,000 U.S. Marketed Natural Gas Production ,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Month and Year March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 6

7 Market Response to Falling Energy Prices March 11, 2009

8 Thousand Decatherms U.S. LNG Imports December 1999 Through December 2008 (12-Month Rolling Averages) Despite Expanded U.S. LNG Terminal Capacity, LNG Imports Fell by More Than 54% in Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Month U.S. LNG Imports (12-Month Rolling Average) March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 8

9 Thousands of MMBtu U.S. LNG Imports By Country All Others Trinidad Qatar Nigeria Egypt Algeria Calendar Year March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 9

10 Natural Gas Storage Inventories Are Now Well Above Five-Year Average Levels 5-Year High 5-Year Low Current Red Line EIA: Working Gas in Underground Storage, Lower 48 States Region Stocks in billion cubic feet (Bcf) 02/27/09 02/20/09 Change Historical Comparisons Year Ago (02/27/08) 5-Year ( ) Avg Stocks (Bcf) % Change Stocks (Bcf) % Change East % % West % % Producing % % Total 1,793 1, , % 1, % March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 10

11 Dollars per MMBtu The Sharp Decline in Natural Gas Prices Continues... $13.00 Fluctuations in Natural Gas Futures Prices Average Prices for Calendar Year Supply Periods $12.00 $11.00 $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $ /12/06 01/12/07 03/26/07 04/16/07 05/29/07 06/12/07 07/27/07 08/29/07 09/26/07 10/26/07 11/28/07 12/27/07 01/29/08 02/12/08 02/25/08 02/26/08 03/17/08 4/15/2008 4/28/2008 5/22/2008 5/28/2008 6/12/2008 6/26/2008 7/10/2008 7/29/2008 8/27/2008 9/19/ /17/ /29/ /13/ /5/ /31/2008 1/21/2009 2/25/2009 Date of Observation CY 2009 CY 2010 CY 2011 CY 2012 CY 2013 March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 11

12 Dollars per Decatherm $14.00 Changes in Forward Looking Natural Gas Prices Based on Prices for NYMEX Natural Gas Commodity Futures $13.00 $12.00 $11.00 $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Supply Month As of 12/27/07 As of 02/26/08 As of 04/28/08 As of 06/26/08 As of 08/27/08 As of 10/29/08 As of 12/31/08 As of 02/25/09 March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 12

13 Number of Active Drilling Rigs 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Total U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Activity March 1999 to March 2009 Oil Rigs Natural Gas Rigs Mar-99 Jul-99 Nov-99 Mar-00 Jul-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Jul-02 Observation Date Oil Rigs Natural Gas Rigs Total Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 13

14 Number of Active Rigs 2,100 US. Active Drilling Rigs By Type March 1999 to March ,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 Total Wells Traditional Vertical Wells 1, Horizontal Wells Directional Wells Mar-99 Jul-99 Nov-99 Mar-00 Jul-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Jul-02 Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Date of Observation Directional Horizonal Vertical Total March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 14

15 Near-Term Natural Gas Prices Continue Their Decline While Crude Oil Prices Show Some Upward Movement March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 15

16 Rolling 12 Month Total Gas Use (Bcf). 8,000 US Natural Gas Use by Sector (EIA Actuals through December 2008; Linear Trend Lines through January 2010) Electric Generation 7,000 Industrial 6,000 5,000 Commercial 4,000 3,000 Residential 2,000 Other 1,000 0 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Month and Year Residential Commercial Industrial Other Electric Generation March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 16

17 Dollars per Therm Retail Natural Gas Prices Turn Sharply Downward For Now $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00 Washington Gas Light Company History of Purchased Gas Charges by Jurisdiction (Balancing Charges Included) 1/1/02 3/1/02 5/1/02 7/1/02 9/1/02 11/1/02 1/1/03 3/1/03 5/1/03 7/1/03 9/1/03 11/1/03 1/1/04 3/1/04 5/1/04 7/1/04 9/1/04 11/1/04 1/1/05 3/1/05 5/1/05 7/1/05 9/1/05 11/1/05 1/1/06 3/1/06 5/1/06 7/1/06 9/1/06 11/1/06 Actual Projected Month 1/1/07 3/1/07 5/1/07 7/1/07 9/1/07 11/1/07 1/1/08 3/1/08 5/1/08 7/1/08 9/1/08 11/1/08 1/1/09 3/1/09 5/1/09 7/1/09 9/1/09 11/1/09 WGL DC WGL MD WGL VA Comm WGL VA MMA Linear (WGL VA Comm) March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 17

18 March 11, 2009 Electric Markets

19 Dollars per MWH Impacts of Energy Price Fluctuations on Wholesale Electric Commodity Prices PJM Monthly Electric LMP Futures - Peak For July 2008 Through June 2010 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Feb 25, 2008 May 19, 2008 Jul 10, 2008 Oct 2, 2008 'Dec 8, Mar-09 March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 19

20 Illustrative Forward Looking Retail Electricity Supply Prices by Cost Component (for DC Electric Market) 06/09 5/10 06/09 5/11 As of Mar 2008 As of Mar 2008 Cents per kwh Estimated Electric Energy Cost Locational Capacity Costs Congestion Charges Transmission Costs Ancillaries Marketer Costs Distribution Losses Estimated Total Retail Supply Cost Includes administrative, marketing, collateral and billing costs as well as marketer risk and profit. March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 20

21 What to Look For In U.S. Energy Markets Over the Next Few Years? Either a Carbon Tax or a Cap and Trade Program on carbon emissions will weigh heavily on the coal industry and on coal-fired electric generation. Renewable energy development will not be sufficiently rapid to displace substantial coal-fired electric generation. Increased Natural Gas supplies will be required to displace coal-fired electric generation. Unexpected large demands for natural gas supplies will push up natural gas prices even if there is little or no economic recovery. March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 21

22 What to Look For In U.S. Energy Markets Over the Next Few Years? (continued) Re-regulated electric service will be used to obtain greater subsidies of residential electric customers by commercial energy users. The Nuclear industry will continue to languish unless more economic and smaller-sized generating units can be developed without sacrificing safety. Although approximately 40 permits for the construction of new nuclear generators are presently before the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, none have been approved to date; and few will be constructed over the next decade. Substantially increased imports of LNG may ultimately be a key element of U.S. efforts to provide for economic growth while meeting carbon reduction goals, but that will once again be at the expense of U.S. energy security. March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 22

23 Longer-Term Considerations March 11, 2009

24 EIA Long-Term Energy Use Projections 10-Yr Year Quads Growth % % % % % % Energy Use in Quadrillion Btus Annually March 11, 2009 AOBA Utility Committee Page 24