Contents. Wind power sector facts. Growth drivers. Immediate challenges. Innovative and global response

Transcription

1 Wind power sector 'Keys to competitiveness on the international stage ESADE-Deloitte Jorge Calvet, Chairman of Gamesa Madrid, 1 July 2010

2 Contents Wind power sector facts Growth drivers Immediate challenges Innovative and global response 2

3 Contents 5 Wind power sector facts o Mature technology that is in demand worldwide o Orderly, gradual and predictable growth o Competitiveness guaranteed o Wealth and job creation o Stands apart from the other renewable energies 3

4 Mature technology in demand worldwide Versus cliché "emerging energy" Global installed wind power capacity Cumulative MW 13% 7% 120, ,899 3% 2%2% 3% 3% 12% 16% 74,052 93,835 23% 16% 59,091 13,600 10,200 6,100 7, ,900 31,100 17, Source: GWEC 47,620 39,431 India Spain China Germany US Italy France UK Portugal Denmark RoW 4

5 Gradual and predictable growth Versus cliché "the wind power bubble" Global installed wind turbines GW Sensitivity to adverse environments Growth in line with other industrial sectors +12% p.a % % E 11 E 12 E 13 E 14 E Source: GWEC 5

6 Predictable and orderly expansion Versus cliché "the wind power bubble" Wind power, the only technology in Spain to meet all targets under the Renewable Energy Plan 19,149 20,155 15,104 16, Renewable Energy Plan: 20,155 MW 10,011 11, Infrastructure Plan: 13,000 MW 8,460 1,415 2,365 3,530 5,026 6, Renewable Energy Development Plan: 8,974 MW Source: AEE 6

7 Wind power, competitiveness guaranteed Versus cliché "expensive energy source" Wind power is one of the forces driving pool prices down In 2009, sector premiums cost each household in Spain 1.30/month Meanwhile last year major industrial users saved 160,000 on average thanks to wind power (via pool price savings) Wind premiums are included in the access tariff and represent 9.8% of fixed system costs The fixed cost implied by wind power production needs to be deducted for the energy price savings implied by the displacement of more expensive fossil fuel power stations Source: AEE 7

8 Wind power, competitiveness guaranteed Versus cliché "responsible for the tariff deficit" In 2009, wind power premium cost overruns amounted to 230 million, just 5% of the total tariff deficit Under prevailing rates, the wind power sector would receive 28 billion in premiums over the next 20 years Generating the equivalent amount of energy using gas, assuming average IEA prices, would cost 50 billion (the cost of gas imports + the cost of purchasing carbon emission certificates) Source: AEE and IEA 8

9 Wind power, competitiveness guaranteed Versus cliché "generates system cost overruns" During the last five years, wind power output totalled 138 TWh while premiums amounted to 5.2 billion Generating the same amount of energy using gas would have cost almost 5 billion, which has to be grossed up by 700 million for the CO 2 emissions generated (requiring the purchase of emission certificates outside Spain). In all, more than 5.7 billion in income that was not transferred abroad Source: AEE 9

10 Wind power, competitiveness guaranteed Versus cliché "generates system cost overruns" Wind premiums represented 9.8% of electricity system fixed costs in 2009, whereas wind power met 13.4% of national demand 9% 2% 2% 1% 9% Wind: 9.8% 29% 5% Wind: 13.4% 8% 30% 39% Premiums other technologies: 29% 13% 19% 9% 33% Other renewable technologies: 20% Renewable regime premiums Distribution Transmission Sales management System supply interruption Diversification and supply security Permanent costs Annual deficit Renewable regime Nuclear Natural gas Hydro Coal Oil products Source: AEE 10

11 Wind power, competitiveness guaranteed Versus cliché "remuneration in Spain is expensive" Remuneration in Spain is lower than in the EU COUNTRY WIND POWER REMUNERATION 2009 /MWh RESET WIND CAPACITY TARGET Spain Pool + premium = Tariff: Indexed annually 20,155 MW in 2010 Germany Tariff: 92 Not indexed 37,000 MW in 2020 France Tariff: Indexed annually 25,000 MW in 2020 Italy Pool + GC= 152 In line with market 12,000 MW in 2020 UK Pool + GC = 101 In line with market 14,000 MW in 2020; 30,000 MW offshore in 2030 Greece Tariff: Indexed annually 10,000 MW in 2020 Poland Pool + GC = In line with market 6,868 MW in 2020; 7,879 MW offshore in 2030 Portugal Tariff = 75 / 78 Indexed annually 8,000 MW; 500 MW offshore in

12 Wind power and wealth generation Versus cliché "generates excessive premiums" In 2008, the sector contributed c. 15 billion to GDP and gave jobs to 41,000 people in 43 provinces in Spain Other social benefits 41,000 new jobs Tax balance 243mn 1.14bn in premiums Fossil fuel imports bn R&D 189mn Indirect GDP (knock-on effect) 1.49bn CO 2 emissions mn Direct GDP bn Exports + 2.9bn Source: AEE

13 Wind power and wealth generation Versus cliché "generates excessive premiums" 28bn in premiums to wind generation Cost to the Spanish economy of generating 40,000 GWh a year (forecast wind power contribution in 2010) for 20 years and the cost of the fossil fuel alternative Assumed values per resource (20-year averages, IEA WEO 2009) Gas (MWh thermal) Costs Ton CO Purchase of carbon certificates bn Fossil fuel imports bn Source: AEE 13

14 Wind power, the same yet different Versus cliché "renewables are all the same" The same as the other renewable energies But different in terms of Industrial nature Prevent carbon emissions Contribute to lowering electricity prices Natural resource - limitless Reduce energy dependence national vulnerability Technological maturity Existence of a national industrial sector Longer development periods (8 years to develop a wind farm) Advanced technological learning curve A more mature sector in terms of technology and development Higher capital requirements 14

15 Contents 5 Sector growth drivers o Political commitment worldwide o Growth in global demand for electricity o Energy independence o Increase in fossil fuel prices o Growing competitiveness of wind power 15

16 Wind power sector drivers Factors that will underpin medium- and long-term growth Global commitment to cut CO 2 emissions Growth in global demand for electricity Energy independence Fossil fuel prices and volatility trending higher Gradual improvement in wind power competitiveness 16

17 Global commitment To tackle climate change by cutting CO 2 emissions o Energy usage, a fundamental factor unleashing climate change o Copenhagen Agreement developed nations to finance development of renewable energy sources in developing nations o EU 20/20/20 targets o US stimulus programs such as production tax credits (PTC), investment tax credits (ITC) and Treasury grants o China 5-year plan with scope for raising the initial target of raising contribution of renewable energy to 15% by

18 Cutting carbon emissions Contribution of wind power Energy-related CO 2 emissions (1) in 2030 GT of CO % The 158 GW of total capacity at year-end 2009 produced 340 TWh of clean electricity and prevented the emission of 204 million tonnes of CO 2 /yr Emissions 2006 Forecast 2030 Effect of implementation of new policies Forecast Including power generation, industry, transportation, construction and other energy sectors 2 The 550 Policy estimates assume that the mix of low carbon energy sources increases from 19% in 2006 to 25% by 2030, boosted by an increase in renewable energy capacity of 440 GW Source: IEA World Energy Outlook

19 Growth in global demand In emerging nations, mainly Asia Population without access to electricity: 1.5bn in 2008 and an estimated 1.3bn in 2030 Source: IEA China and East Asia North Africa 1.7 Middle East South Asia Latam Sub-Saharan Africa

20 Drop in wind generation costs Learning curve in technological solutions Wind power costs (per kwh) indexed to 2005 = 100 Economies of scale Technological development Less margin for error and introduction of improved methods Technological development Shortening product launch cycles Narrowing increases in production costs and economies of scale Downtrend in maintenance costs Technological development of less importance. Operating and control strategies % % % % % % Source: NREL and BTM 20

21 Growing competitiveness of wind power Medium term and in line with technological development US example. Estimated costs for other technologies Forecasts for 2020 without stimulus props and assuming CO 2 emission costs of $30/tonne in 2020 $/MWh Wind Coal Clean coal Natural gas Nuclear Biomass PV solar NOTE: Reflects estimated 2020 capital cost, fuel cost and regulatory environment. Assumes $30/t CO2 Source: US DOE AEO2008. US DOE NREL. MIT. Keystone. WGA. CHP Catalog. Other experts 21

22 Contents 5 Immediate challenges o Need for stable framework o Shift in demand and industrial overcapacity o New market requirements - customers o Technology and innovation to reach full penetration o Storage and pan-european interconnection solutions 22

23 Stable framework Strategic and long-term planning, with balanced participation of all available technologies Beyond premiums. Beyond ideologies SUPPLY SECURITY FINANCIAL RETURNS (COMPETITIVENESS) Ensure minimum cost Boost economy's competitive positioning Diversification Reduced vulnerability Improved storage solutions ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Minimisation of environmental fallout Response to society demands 23

24 Stable framework Urgent sector requirements Suitable and stable regulatory environment - o Not just a tariff debate o Multi-year targets o Reality based quotas (certified commissioned wind farms) o Stimulation of repowering (increased efficiency, reduced territorial impact & need for infrastructure) Support for home-grown innovation and technology Sufficient compliance with utilities' Infrastructure Plan 24

25 Stable framework Diapositiva con fotografía Spanish situation Layout de diapositiva con fotografía o Delay in talks plunges sector back in the state of uncertainty prevailing for more than a year. Talks need to be rekindled without further delay o A new round of negotiations must consider sector feedback Wind power sector Additional Jorge Calvet, Chairman text of Gamesa 25

26 Shift in demand US, China and RoW, the growth markets 22% 31% 31% 34% 4% Rest of World 20% 23% 25% 22% 39% 13% 21% 22% 15% % 7% % 21% 3% % 2020 Source: BTM Consulting, Make, EER 26

27 The new wind power industry New and more sophisticated demands, greater competition and pressure The new wind power industry Demand Demand shifting to new geographies Technology and innovation, key competitive differentiators More sophisticated customers/demands Competition Traditional players need to react swiftly to hold on to competitive advantages Advent of newcomers, particularly in the low cost segment/markets Regulation Growing pressure on the support mechanisms designed to foster growth of renewable energy 27

28 Innovation and technology Ongoing and evolving response to emerging needs Flexibility, staying ahead of curve, ability to react in order to develop technology for all types of markets and wind conditions New wind capacity by turbine class. GW New offshore capacity. GW 100% > 3 MW MW < 1 MW Onshore Offshore E E 2020E Source: Emerging Energy Research. McKinsey 28

29 Contents 1 One innovative and global response, Gamesa 29

30 Global Gamesa Productive and sales bases in main markets Cumulative capacity, at year-end 2009: over 18,000 MW Americas 2,382 MW Europe 13,236 MW Asia 1,969 MW Sales MWe 2009 N. Africa 659 MW Spain 27% RoW 11% China 15% US 15% Other Europe 32% 30

31 Gamesa G10X-4.5 MW 31

32 Gamesa G10X-4.5 MW 32

33 Conclusions Wind power is here and has a brilliant future ahead of it as a driver of competitiveness: - guaranteeing supply security and delivery of environmental targets at a price not subject to volatility - contributing to raising energy, economic and political independence Economic and social returns far in excess of premiums received Wind power is meeting a growing percentage of demand R&D, key to staying competitive and the glue keeping the industrial landscape together Urgent need for a new regulatory framework Gamesa, an innovative and global leader 33

34 Wind power sector