In December 2013, the U.S. Energy Information

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1 THE FUTURE THIS ARTICLE IS THE THIRD OF FOUR IN A SERIES OF ARTICLES EXCERPTED FROM THE NACS FUTURE OF FUELS 214 REPORT. 36 MAY 214 nacsonline.com In December 213, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its early publication of its 214 Annual Energy Outlook, providing projections for the energy markets through 24. NACS used EIA s report to prepare our Future of Fuels 214 report. The report seeks to determine how EIA s projections will directly affect the retail fuels market, consumer use of specific types of light duty vehicles and the pace at which alternative fuels may gain market share. Part three of the report, excerpted here, focuses on non-liquid fuels. Through the research, NACS learned that non-liquid fuel alternatives (propane, natural gas, electricity and hydrogen) will increase their total contribution to the light duty vehicle energy consumption by 12%, but contribute only a small amount of the energy consumed by 24. Electricity is projected to experience the strongest growth in the non-liquid market while hybrid vehicles are forecast to capture the greatest share of the light duty vehicle market. On an energy equivalent basis, E8 is reported as the most expensive fuel in 212, followed by gasoline and diesel fuel. By 24, there is one change in the three most expensive fuels diesel becomes the second most expensive behind E8 and above gasoline. Electricity and natural gas are the least expensive fuel choices throughout the forecast.

2 NON-LIQUID NACS Magazine MAY

3 Despite the dominant role of liquid fuels to power light duty vehicles, there remains considerable interest in the development of markets for alternative vehicles powered by electricity, natural gas, propane and hydrogen. The battle for primacy of each technology is competitive, although EIA forecasts that this battle is for control of just.72% of the LDV fuels market and such market share growth is measured in 1ths of a percent. (Chart 1) 1 PERCENTAGE OF LDV ENERGY BY FUEL.8%.7%.6%.%.4%.3% NATURAL GAS:.13% -.17% PROPANE:.19% -.24% ELECTRICITY:.1% -.28% HYDROGEN:.% -.4%.2%.1%.% NATURAL GAS PROPANE ELECTRICITY HYDROGEN To get a better idea of which alternative fuel in this competitive market shows the most promise, it is useful to evaluate EIA s projections of market share within this sector. In its analysis, EIA is forecasting that by 24, electricity will edge slightly above propane in LDV market share, while natural gas is forecast to lose some ground. (Chart 2) 2 PERCENTAGE OF NON-LIQUID BTUs 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % 212 NATURAL GAS: 38.84% PROPANE: 8.71% ELECTRICITY: 2.4% HYDROGEN:.% 24 NATURAL GAS: 23.1% PROPANE: 33.32% ELECTRICITY: 38.47% HYDROGEN:.2% NATURAL GAS PROPANE ELECTRICITY HYDROGEN Alternative fuel vehicles are forecast to represent less than 7% of the LDV market by 24, and if hybrid vehicles are removed from the category, market penetration would be only 1.88%. (Chart 3) Sales are expected to nearly double, from 3.8% of the LDV market to 7.3%. Again, however, if hybrids are taken away from the category, sales will grow from.88% to 2.32%. (Chart 4) 38 MAY 214 nacsonline.com

4 3 PERCENTAGE OF LDV INVENTORY 7% NON-LIQUID 4 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % BEV 212 BEV:.22% PLUG-IN:.23% HYBRID: 1.16% NATURAL GAS:.122% PROPANE:.238% FUEL CELL:.% PLUG-IN PERCENTAGE OF LVD SALES 24 BEV:.424% PLUG-IN:.91% HYBRID: 4.422% NATURAL GAS:.174% PROPANE:.294% FUEL CELL:.42% HYBRID NATURAL GAS PROPANE FUEL CELL NATURAL GAS Natural gas continues to attract significant attention in the United States, largely because of the significant reserves located in North America (Chart ), the relatively low price of the product compared to oil and its low emissions profile, especially as it relates to carbon emissions. TRILLION CUBIC FEET TOTAL NATURAL GAS SUPPLY % NACS Magazine MAY

5 Despite continued strong interest, EIA projects slow development of the natural gas vehicle (NGV) market. NGV sales are projected to increase 19.29% for bi-fuel vehicles (those that run on natural gas or gasoline and are equipped with two separate fuel tanks) and 32.98% for dedicated internal combustion engine (ICE) natural gas vehicles (Chart 6), while inventories are expected to increase 63.7% and 9.74%, respectively. (Chart 7) Overall, however, sales and inventories will remain less than.18% of the LDV market. (Charts 3-4) 6 NATURAL GAS VEHICLE SALES THOUSAND UNITS SOLD ICE VEHICLES: % BI-FUEL VEHICLES: % ICE SALES BI-FUEL SALES 7 NATURAL GAS VEHICLS IN INVENTORY MILLION UNITS IN INVENTORY ICE VEHICLES: +9.74% BI-FUEL VEHICLES: +63.7% ICE SALES BI-FUEL STOCKS As a contributor to overall LDV energy consumption, natural gas efficiency is projected to improve, reducing BTUs per mile by 41.38%. Combined with the increase number of NGVs in the market, this will result in a 1.3% reduction in total LDV energy provided by natural gas. (Chart 8) 8 LDV ENERGY PROVIDED BY NATURAL GAS TRILLION BTUs % MAY 214 nacsonline.com

6 NON-LIQUID PROPANE Propane-powered vehicles are among the most plentiful in the non-liquids market (excluding hybrids), representing.21% of sales and.238% of inventories 212. (Charts 3-4) EIA forecasts a healthy growth rate through 24 in both sales and stocks. (Charts 9-1) Propane vehicles are projected to become 43% more efficient over the forecast period, which will contribute to a.6% decrease in total LDV energy consumption. (Chart 11) This will not, however, significantly increase propane vehicle market share and won t be enough to prevent it from being downgraded below BEVs and plug-in vehicles in terms of both inventories and sales(charts 3-4). 9 PROPANE THOUSAND UNITS SOLD VEHICLE SALES ICE VEHICLES: % BI-FUEL VEHICLES: +2.48% ICE SALES ICE SALES BI-FUEL SALES 1PROPANE VEHICLES IN INVENTORY MILLION UNITS IN INVENTORY ICE VEHICLES: % BI-FUEL VEHICLES: % BI-FUEL STOCKS LDV ENERGY PROVIDED BY PROPANE TRILLION BTUS % NACS Magazine MAY

7 ELECTRICITY EIA remains bullish on the future of electric-powered vehicles, forecasting BEV inventories to grow in market share from.22% to.424% (Chart 3) and to quintuple in sales market share from.133% to.623%. (Chart 4) Despite this growth and the growth of plug-in vehicles, hybrid technology remains the primary source of electric power in the LDV market. Hybrids are projected to increase LDV market share from 1.16% to 4.422%. (Chart 3) Electricity s total contribution to LDV energy consumption is expected to increase substantially by %. Yet as a percent of total LDV energy consumption, it will remain a.28% contributor. (Chart 1) Through 24, electric-powered vehicles of all type are projected to experience triple digit increases in sales. (Chart 12) This will contribute to a % increase in the inventory of hybrid vehicles and quadruple figure increases in the inventories of BEVs and plug-in vehicles. (Chart 13) Similarly, the total LDV energy contributed by electricity is forecast to increase 2,11.21%. (Chart 14) 12 ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES THOUSAND UNITS SOLD 1,4 1,2 1, BEV: % PLUG-IN: % HYBRID: % 13ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN INVENTORY BEV PLUG-IN HYBRID LDV ENERGY PROVIDED BY ELECTRICITY TRILLION BTUs ,11.21% 42 MAY 214 nacsonline.com

8 HYDROGEN Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV) have yet to enter the market on a commercial basis but are expected to in 21. Given this late introduction, it is understandable that EIA s forecast for hydrogen s contribution to the LDV market is relatively minor. Recognizing that hydrogen is not expected to contribute significantly to the LDV market (in fact, EIA forecasts it will represent only.4% of the total energy consumed by LDVs in 24), it is more instructive to look at the projected rate of growth for this new technology. In each category sales, stocks and energy consumption hydrogen FCVs are projected to enjoy strong growth rates. (Charts 1,16,17) NON-LIQUID 1 THOUSAND UNITS SOLD HYDROGEN FUEL CELL VEHICLE SALES 16HYDROGEN FUEL CELL VEHICLES IN INVENTORY MILLION VEHICLES IN INVENTORY CHANGE % CHANGE +4,141.96% LDV ENERGY PROVIDED BY HYDROGEN TRILLION BTUs CHANGE +2,9.78% Part four of the Future of Fuels 214 will focus on Prices in our June issue. NACS Magazine MAY

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