INVESTING IN A TRANSITIONING SECTOR

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1 INVESTING IN A TRANSITIONING SECTOR Eurelectric conference Jon Moore, CEO NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) 32% 17% $318bn -7% $294bn 16% -9% $31bn.5% $272bn $268bn 17% 46% 36% $175bn $25bn $26bn 46% $128bn $6bn $88bn Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). 1 1

2 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION ($BN) 17%.5% 32% 17% $79bn $99bn -7% $113bn 16% -9% $154bn $126bn 36% $41bn $52bn $65bn $69bn $86bn $71bn 46% $19bn $13bn $28bn 46% $26bn $23bn $39bn $31bn $44bn $53bn $59bn $75bn $63bn $9bn $5bn $91bn $124bn $132bn $19bn $68bn $74bn $78bn $78bn EMEA AMER APAC Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). 2 EMEA NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR Q1 24-Q4 214 ($BN) Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q Wind Solar Other Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). 3 2

3 TOP ASSET FINANCE TRANSACTIONS OF THE QUARTER Q4 214 Project name Country Sector Type of transaction Capacity Value Dudgeon Offshore Wind Farm United Kingdom Wind Balance Sheet 42MW $2573m Wikinger Offshore Wind Farm Germany Wind Balance Sheet 35MW $1712m Sandbank Offshore Wind Farm Germany Wind Balance Sheet 288MW $1428m Burbo Bank Offshore Wind Farm Extension United Kingdom Wind Balance Sheet 258MW Undisclosed Xina Solar One STEG Plant South Africa Solar Term loan 1MW $11m 4 GLOBAL INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY MIX AND PROJECTED ADDITIONS, BY TECHNOLOGY (GW) GLOBAL 212 1% 5% 5,579GW 2% 6% 64% Annual capacity additions, % % 44% % 1,569GW % 5% Fossil fuels Nuclear Solar Wind Other renewables Flexible capacity 23 2 June

4 EUROPE INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY MIX AND PROJECTED ADDITIONS, BY TECHNOLOGY (GW) EUROPE 212 Annual capacity additions, ,15GW 11% 48% 7% 12% Fossil fuels Solar Wind Other renewables Nuclear Flexible capacity 16% 5% 27% 1,622GW 8% 2 June INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY MIX AND PROJECTED ADDITIONS, BY TECHNOLOGY (GW) EUROPE GLOBAL 212 1% 5% 5,579GW 2% 6% 64% 1,15GW 11% 48% 7% 12% Annual capacity additions, Fossil fuels Nuclear Solar Wind Other renewables Flexible capacity 12% 2% 19% 44% 1,569GW 18% 16% Fossil fuels Solar Wind Other renewables Nuclear Flexible capacity 5% 5% 27% 1,622GW 8% 2 June

5 RE ELECTRICITY SHARE OF POWER GENERATION UNDER THE 23 PACKAGE, VS. BNEF LONG-TERM FORECAST 6% 5% 4% 3% BNEF forecast 23 renewable electricity target 2% 1% % INDEXED POWER DEMAND FORECAST, (TWH) 3 India 25 Indonesia 2 China Japan US Brazil Europe Oranges denote OECD members Purples denote non-oecd members 9 5

6 GROSS CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY REGION AND BY TECHNOLOGY, (GW) APAC 2,794 RoW 978 Americas 943 Europe , 1,5 2, 2,5 3, Solar Fossil fuels Wind Other renewables Nuclear Note: Figure excludes other and flexible capacity. 17 September ENERGY SECURITY CONCERNS OPEN UP NEW OPPORTUNITIES bcm UK Natural gas imports for selected EU member states and their dependency on Russian supplies Germany Italy France Netherlands Spain Belgium Poland Romania Hungary Austria Czech Rep Slovakia Portugal Ireland Greece Denmark Lithuania Finland Croatia Other Suppliers Russia % dependence Bulgaria Latvia Luxembourg Sweden Dependency 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Slovenia Estonia 11 6

7 27/1/215 LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY: EUROPEAN PV, WIND, GAS AND COAL, ($/MWH NOMINAL) Onshore wind 12 Solar PV 1 8 Natural gas 6 4 Coal Note: Prices are in nominal dollars GERMANY ROOFTOP PV CAPEX, FEED-IN TARIFF AND RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICE, Capex (EUR/W) Electricity (EUR/MWh) Q2 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q Capex sub 1kW (EUR/W) Residential power price (EUR/MWh) Feed-in tariff <1kW (EUR/MWh) Source, Eurostat, BNetzA, BSW, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13 7

8 LONG-TERM EUA PRICE PROJECTION ( /T, NOMINAL) Medium term Backloading-driven scarcity Range of market stability reserve uncertainty Long term Fundamental scarcity (Market stability reserve) 1 Historical Forward curve 23 Market Outlook Note: Long-term price projection assumes price will not fall below the average 213 real price, inflated at 2% per year. 14 RENEWABLES SUBSIDIES IN EUROPE TOP SPENDERS ON RENEWABLES SUPPORT IN 213 (EUR BN) COST OF RENEWABLES SUPPORT PER TECHNOLOGY, 213 Germany Italy Spain France UK Biomass & waste 2% Biogas,4% EUR 53bn Hydro, 5% Wind 24% Greece 1.8 Czech Rep 1.3 Solar 47% Bloomberg New Energy Finance, TSOs, national energy market regulators, national statistics offices Note: These figures include direct operational support only. We have excluded any admin costs or other components of the total, which may be added to the renewable energy surcharge. Note: These figures include direct operational support only. We have excluded any admin costs or other components of the total, which may be added to the renewable energy surcharge. 15 8

9 COMPREHENSIVE MARKET REVIEW AND/OR RETROACTIVE CHANGE Major retroactive policy change Retroactive policy change Energy market review underway N/A 16 EUROPEAN DEMAND RESPONSE MARKET FORECAST BY COUNTRY, 212-2E (GW) Denmark Netherlands Ireland Belgium France UK Germany Note: Dates reflect year of delivery of capacity, not procurement. Where delivery is for a winter season, it is represented as delivered in the earlier of the two years

10 EUROPE CUMULATIVE INSTALLED ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY, BY COUNTRY, (GW) By 22, 3.7GW of energy storage is expected to be installed in Europe, with the majority in Germany, UK and Italy Belgium Ireland.4 Spain 2..9 Netherlands France Denmark UK Italy Germany RE ELECTRICITY SHARE OF POWER GENERATION UNDER THE 23 PACKAGE, VS. BNEF LONG-TERM FORECAST 6% 5% 4% 3% BNEF forecast 23 renewable electricity target 2% 1% %

11 COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 2 MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system Jon Moore [email protected] [email protected] 11