World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights. International Energy Agency

Transcription

1 World Energy Outlook 27: China and India Insights International Energy Agency

2 Why Focus on China & India? Increase in World Primary Energy Demand, Imports & Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in the Reference Scenario, 2-26 Energy demand China India Rest of the world Coal demand Oil demand Oil imports CO emissions 2 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% China & India have contributed more than half of the increase in global demand for energy and over 8% for coal since 2

3 Global Outlook

4 Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand billion tonnes of oil equivalent Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

5 Reference Scenario: Increase in World Primary Energy Demand Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables Fossil fuels account for most of the increase in global demand between now & 23, though non-hydro renewables grow fastest

6 Reference Scenario: The Emerging Giants of World Energy 1% 8% Increase in Primary Energy Demand & Investment Between 25 & 23 as Share of World Total Rest of the world India China 6% 4% 2% % Total energy Coal Oil Nuclear Hydro Power sector investments China & India will contribute more than 4% of the increase in global energy demand to 23 on current trends

7 Reference Scenario: Increase in World Primary Energy Demand, % 8% Rest of the world India China 6% 4% 2% % Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Rest of Total renewables China & India will contribute about 45% of the increase in global energy demand to 23 on current trends

8 Reference Scenario: Fuel Mix in Power Generation 1% 8% 6% OECD Non-OECD Rest of renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 4% 2% % Dependence on coal for power rises strongly in emerging economies, while it stagnates in the OECD

9 Reference Scenario: World Oil Demand mb/d Other developing countries Middle East India China Transition Economies OECD Oil demand increases most rapidly in China, India & other developing countries

10 Global Oil Supply Prospects to 215 Prospects for oil supply/demand balance are very sensitive to future decline rates Demand in Reference Scenario rises by 13.6 mb/d between 26 & 215 OPEC plans to add 11.4 mb/d & non-opec producers 13.6 mb/d by 212 A further 12.5 mb/d of gross capacity would need to be added by 215 if no change in the decline rate In total, 37.5 mb/d of gross capacity additions needed in Uncertain whether all planned capacity will be built & additional investment after 212 will occur A supply crunch in the period cannot be ruled out

11 Reference Scenario: Increase in Primary Natural Gas Demand, % % Share of increase in world primary natural gas demand, billion cubic metres 3 13% 25 12% 11% 2 1% 1% 9% 15 7% 1 5% 5 4% Middle Trans. OECD OECD East economies N. Europe America China Latin Rest of America Asia Africa OECD Pacific India Volume increases in gas demand are biggest in the regions with the largest remaining reserves

12 Reference Scenario: Primary Coal Demand by Region Mtoe Power generation Other TE Other OECD EU27 Japan US Other DC India China China & India account for 78% of the growth of coal use in power generation and 91% of the growth in other sectors

13 Reference Scenario: Cumulative Investment in Energy- Supply Infrastructure, Inter-regional transport OECD Pacific India Rest of developing Asia Africa Latin America Middle East Russia OECD Europe China OECD North America Coal Oil Gas Electricity billion dollars (26) Just over half of all investment needs to 23 of $22 trillion are in developing countries, 17% in China & another 6% in India alone

14 Reference Scenario: Cumulative Investment in Energy- Supply Infrastructure, Exploration and development Refining Other 73% 22% 5% Oil 24% $5.4 trillion $11.6 trillion Electricity 53% 49% 51% Power generation Transmission and distribution Exploration and development LNG chain Transmission and distribution 55% 8% 37% Biofuels 1% Gas 19% $4.2 trillion $.6 trillion Coal 3% Total investment = $21.9 trillion (in $26) 9% 1% Mining Shipping and ports Just over half of all investment needs to 23 of $22 trillion are in developing countries, 17% in China & another 6% in India alone

15 Alternative Policy Scenario: Global Primary Fossil-Fuel Demand Savings compared with the Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario Mtoe Mtce 14. mb/d 68 bcm Mtce 17.6 mb/d bcm Coal Oil Gas Coal demand falls most relative to the Reference Scenario, but demand for each fossil fuel still increases through to 23

16 Alternative Policy Scenario: Increase in Net Oil Imports mb/d Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Developing Asia In contrast to the Reference Scenario, oil imports in all OECD regions peak & then begin to decline before 23

17 High Growth Scenario: Change in Primary Oil Demand vis-à-vis the Reference Scenario OECD North America 23 OECD Europe 215 OECD Pacific Rest of developing Asia Africa Latin America Transition economies Middle East India China mb/d World oil demand reaches 12 mb/d in 23 4 mb/d higher than in the reference Scenario due to China, India & the Middle East

18 High Growth Scenario: Incremental Oil Production in 23 Relative to the Reference Scenario 1..8 Non-conventional Conventional mb/d OPEC China OECD North America Transition economies Other non- OPEC India OECD Europe OECD Pacific Oil production, stimulated by higher prices, increases most in OPEC countries

19 Global Environmental Repercussions

20 Reference Scenario: China & India in Global CO 2 Emissions Cumulative Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions United States European Union Japan China India billion tonnes 4 5 Around 6% of the global increase in emissions in comes from China & India

21 Reference Scenario: World s Top Five CO 2 Emitters Gt rank Gt rank Gt rank US China Russia Japan India China overtook the US to become the largest emitter in 27, while India becomes the third-largest by 215

22 Alternative Policy Scenario: Global Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions 5 billion tonnes (Gt) Gt Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario 42 Gt 34 Gt 19% Global emissions grow less than half as fast as in the Reference Scenario, stabilising in the 22s

23 Incremental Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions, billion tonnes China India OECD North America Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario OECD Pacific OECD Europe Most of the increase in emissions are projected to come from China & India in all scenarios

24 Alternative Policy Scenario: Carbon Intensity of Electricity Generation tonnes of CO 2 per MWh % -1% -12% -27% Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario Emissions intensity falls more sharply, thanks to faster efficiency gains & faster growth in nuclear power & renewables

25 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Fuel 25 41% 39% 2% Coal Oil Gas 23 Reference Scenario 45% 34% 21% 23 Alternative Policy Scenario 4% 37% 23% billion tonnes Coal will account for the biggest share of the increase in emissions, used mainly to generate power

26 Incremental Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions, Reference Scenario 42% 14% 44% Alternative Policy Scenario 52% 17% 31% 17% High Growth Scenario 49% 15% 35% billion tonnes China India Rest of the world Most of the increase in emissions will come from China & India, driven mainly by coal-fired power generation

27 CO 2 Emissions - 45 Stabilisation Case Gt of CO Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Reference Scenario 27 Gt 45 Stabilisation Case 42 Gt CCS in industry CCS in power generation Nuclear Renewables Switching from coal to gas End Use electricity efficiency End Use fuel efficiency 23 Gt By 23, emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt, a reduction of 19 Gt compared with the Reference Scenario

28 Key Trends in China & India

29 Shares of China & India in World Oil Demand 3% 25% 2% India China 15% 1% 5% % Reference Scenario 23 Alternative Policy Scenario 23 High Growth Scenario Oil consumption in both countries is being driven higher by rising incomes & demand for mobility

30 Net Oil Imports by Scenario China India OECD mb/d Reference Scenario 23 Alternative Policy Scenario 23 High Growth Scenario All consuming regions notably China need to import increasing volumes of oil in each scenario

31 Reference Scenario: China & India Coal Imports China net trade India net trade India's and China's net trade as share of interregional trade (right axis) 35% 3% 25% 2% Mtce % 1% 5% % % China recently became a net coal importer like India, with both putting increasing pressure on international coal markets

32 Reference Scenario: Fuel Mix in Power Generation in China & India 8% 6% China India % 2% % Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Rest of renewables Coal Oil GasNuclearHydro Rest of renewables Both China & India continue to rely heavily on coal for power generation

33 Reference Scenario: CO 2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations built prior to 215 in China & India 6 5 million tonnes of CO Existing power plants Power plants built in Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology & largely determine emissions through 25 & beyond

34 High Growth Scenario: Oil Demand in China & India China India Additional demand in High Growth Scenario mb/d Faster economic growth in China & India would increase the need for policies to address rising energy insecurity & climate change

35 Focus on China

36 Reference Scenario: China s Primary Energy Demand Mtoe Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal China s energy demand more than doubles by 23, with coal accounting for about half of the increase

37 Reference Scenario: China s Final Energy Demand by Sector Mtoe Non-energy use Agriculture Services Residential Transport Industry Industry is the main driver of final energy demand to 21, with transport taking an increasingly large share in the longer term

38 Reference Scenario: New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales in China million Overtake US sales Overtake Japan sales China s oil imports jump from 3.5 mb/d in 26 to 13 mb/d in 23 as car ownership increase 7-fold to 14 per 1 people

39 Reference Scenario: Vehicle Stock in Selected Countries 3 9 million vehicles per 1 people China 25 China India Reference Scenario India Brazil Reference Scenario Korea 25 Japan 25 United States 25 Vehicles per 1 people (right axis) China and India see rapid growth in their vehicle stock, but still have low ownership levels in 23

40 Reference Scenario: Power Generation Capacity Additions in China, % 2% 7%.2% 6% GW 7% Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Rest of renewables Most of the increase in coal demand comes from power generation

41 Reference Scenario: Cumulative Energy-Supply Investment in China, Ports Mining Distribution Transmission Power generation Electricity 74% $3.7 trillion Gas 4% Coal 7% Oil 15% CTL Refining Upstream Transmission & distribution LNG Upstream China needs to invest $3.7 trillion in energy supply infrastructure three-quarters of which for the electricity sector

42 Alternative Policy Scenario: Increase in China s Net Imports, mb/d 9.7 mb/d Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario Mtoe bcm 158 bcm Mt Oil Gas Coal 14 Mt New policies significantly reduce China s oil-import dependence & keeps the country self-sufficient in coal, though gas imports rise

43 Alternative Policy Scenario: Electricity Savings from More Efficient Appliances in China 2 16 TWh per year Three Gorges (85 TWh) Air conditioner savings Refrigerator savings Tougher efficiency standards for air conditioners & refrigerators alone would save the need to build 2 Three Gorges by 23

44 Alternative Policy Scenario: China s Local Pollution 35 million tonnes SO 2 NO x PM Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario Policies aimed at enhancing energy security & reducing CO 2 emissions also reduce local pollution

45 High Growth Scenario: Incremental Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in China, Mtoe Reference Scenario High Growth Scenario 25 Coal Oil Gas Other Faster economic growth pushes up energy demand by 23% in 23, with coal use growing the most in volume terms

46 Focus on India

47 Reference Scenario: India s Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables Large increase in coal demand

48 Reference Scenario: India s Final Energy Demand by Sector Mtoe Non-energy use Agriculture Services Residential Transport Industry Fastest growth occurs in the transport sector, increasing its share from 1% today to 2% in 23

49 Reference Scenario: India s Transport Energy Demand Mtoe Other Aviation Trucks and buses Cars Two-wheelers Transport demand mostly oil grows rapidly as car ownership increases in line with rising incomes

50 Reference Scenario: India s Electricity Generation Mix TWh Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables Coal remains the backbone of India s power sector

51 Reference Scenario: India s Investment in Energy Infrastructure, Port Mining Distribution Coal 5% Transmission Power generation Electricity 76% $1 25 billion Oil 14% Refining Gas 5% Upstream Transmission and distribution LNG Upstream Three-quarters of total energy-related investment needs to 23 are for power infrastructure

52 Alternative Policy Scenario: India s Primary Energy Demand Compared with the Reference Scenario Reference Scenario 23 Alternative Policy Scenario Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables New policies could cut energy demand by 17% in 23 & boost the contribution of non-fossil fuels

53 Alternative Policy Scenario: India s Fossil Fuel Imports Compared with the Reference Scenario mb/d 4.9 mb/d Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario Mtoe Mt Mt 1 61 bcm 56 bcm 5 Oil Gas Coal Dependence on fossil fuels is markedly lower in the Alternative Policy Scenario, reducing import volumes & bills

54 Alternative Policy Scenario: India s Local Pollution Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario SO 2 million tonnes NO x Emissions of SO 2 and NO x mainly from coal-fired power plants, cars & trucks will rise strongly on current policies

55 High Growth Scenario: India s Primary Energy Demand Compared with the Reference Scenario Mtoe Other Gas Oil Coal Reference Scenario Faster GDP growth pushes energy demand up by 16% in 23 compared with the Reference Scenario

56 Conclusions

57 Conclusions Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system New policies now under consideration would make a major contribution Next 1 years are critical The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid Technology will be locked-in for decades Growing tightness in oil & gas markets Challenge is global so solutions must be global

58 World Energy Outlook 27: China and India Insights International Energy Agency