Energy & Environment Market Trends, Smart Technologies, New Fuels, Future Business Models and Growth Opportunities

Transcription

1 & Environment Market Trends, Technologies, New Fuels, Future Business Models and Growth Opportunities September 2014

2 OUR COVERAGE & VISION: IDENTIFYING OPPORTUNITIES FROM UPSTREAM TO POINT OF USE Oil & Gas Power Generation Power & Water Transmission Renewable Distributed & Back-up Power End-Users & Waste Streams Unconventional Gas and Shale Natural Gas Oilfield Services Offshore and Subsea Prime movers and rental markets Water management Gas Turbines Steam Turbines Power Plant Services O&M and MRO Total and fuel mix forecasts Electric grid T&D grid Transformers Switchgear Substations Metering and AMI Water/Waste Water Water Wind Solar Fuel Cells Biofuels Waste to energy Alternative energy Generator sets Power rental Batteries Ultracaps UPS Back-up power Microgrids CHP and microchp Waste to buildings/ smart homes Facility management management services IFM Fire & Safety Residential/C&I water treatment Convergence Themes Shale Gas Digital Oilfields Security Water/Waste Cities Big Data Cleaner Datacentre Connected Living

3 & Environment Top 10 Mega Trends Defining the Future Internet of Things Big Data Fuels for the Future Cities Connectivity & Integration Supply & Costs Capacity Optimisation Carbon Reduction Environment Global Demand Sustainability Efficiency & Intelligence Market Globalisation Water Stress Efficiency New Business Models Source: Frost & Sullivan

4 & Environment Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Watch for in 2020 Gas-Fired Power & Shale Gas Exploitation Efficiency and SMART s LED Lighting Revolution Recovery from Waste Top 10 Markets of the Future Small Scale Distributed Generation Harvesting SMART Grid & SMART Solar PV Advanced Batteries and Storage Water Networks Source: Frost & Sullivan

5 Installed Capacity (GW) Global Power Generation Installed Capacity Huge Global Expansion with Thermal Fuels Remaining Dominant Power Generation Market: Installed Capacity Forecast, Global, Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other Renewables 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan

6 Global Power Generation Installed Capacity Gas Challenging Coal by 2030 in Global Fuel Mix Power Generation Market: Installed Capacity Forecast by Fuel, Global, 2012, 2020 and ,640 GW ,425 GW ,262 GW Coal 31.6% Oil 7.7% Gas 25.9% Coal 28.7% Oil 4.9% Gas 25.1% Coal 25.9% Oil 3.1% Gas 24.5% Nuclear 6.0% Other Renewables 2.0% Solar PV 1.6% Wind 4.9% Nuclear 7.0% Hydro 19.2% Other Renewables 2.5% Solar PV 5.9% Wind 8.3% Hydro 18.3% Nuclear 6.4% Other Renewables 3.3% Solar PV 9.0% Wind 10.7% Hydro 17.6% Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan

7 Electricity Generation by Technology Renewable Continuing its Fast Growth Power Generation Market: Electricity Generation Compound Annual Growth Rates by Technology, Global, Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other Renewables (5.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Compound Annual Growth Rate Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan

8 Electricity Generation by Region Asia is Outpacing other Emerging Regions Power Generation Market: Electricity Generation Compound Annual Growth Rates by Region, Global, EU Russia Middle East Africa North America Latin America China India Other Dev. Asia OECD APAC Other World % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Compound Annual Growth Rate Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan

9 Concepts and the Key Enablers for Growth Technology within s, Grids and Cities 2 Grid Key Features Growth Enablers Key Features 1 Fully automated digital buildings Continuous 2-way communication Micro-generation Demand response materials Fully integrated building controls Growth Enablers Open architecture Advanced building design Software tools Analysis & reporting Connectivity of devices Networks of ubiquitous sensors Utility System Cities 3 Optimised use of capacity Advanced metering infrastructure Integrating renewables Digital intelligence Remote control Micro grids Virtual power plants City Key Features Inter-connectivity between buildings and communities Virtual consumers Shared efficiency gains service delivery (safety, health, education etc.) metering Drive from utilities Regulation price signals storage Integrated communications Sensing & measurement Growth Enablers IP networks and affordable broadband Real-time network visualisation Inter-connected advanced metering infrastructure Buy-in from city leaders Source: Frost & Sullivan.

10 The Example of Progression Towards Solutions & New Business Models Evolution of Markets Functional Controllers Industrial Automation HVAC Control Automation & Control Growth in Renewables Micro- Generation Home Automation Systems Integration IT Convergence Low Lighting Storage Micro- Renewables Green s Construction & Operational Efficiency Grids Intelligent s Homes Integrated Networking Enhanced Active Big Data Control Cities Control Automation Performance 2013 s Emergence of & Intelligent Technology Systems Automation Automated Meter Reading (AMR) IT Convergence Micro- Renewables Power Line Carriers Metering Home Monitoring Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Electric Vehicles HEMS & BEMS Asset Solutions Home Area Network (HAN) Demand Response Virtual Consumers Virtual power plants Cities/Towns Source: Frost & Sullivan

11 ... Multiple Convergence of Technologies, Markets, Competition & Business Models Automation Controls and Devices Data Analytics Asset Software Facility / Performance Contracting HEMS, BEMS, and FEMS Microgeneration & renewable energy Communication and M2M Cloud Services Metering Demand Response Source: Frost & Sullivan

12 What Happens if Companies Don t React to Business Model Change? Large Commercial & Industrial Mid- to small-scale C&I Residential customers 1 Captive power 1 Captive power (renewables) 1 Own generation 2 Service Companies (ESCo) 2 ESCo including green power Example 2 Solar power in Germany -> utilities lost as didn t perceive solar power as a potential opportunity Example 1 ESCO in the UK -> utilities challenged & haven t been able to capture a significant market share

13 Some Big Predictions By 2030, gas will be challenging coal for number one spot in the global fuel mix, driven by cleaner and more flexible generating systems and by growing gas output around the world (including shale gas). Renewable energy capacity will grow very fast in the net 20 years to increase its share from 27.7% in 2012 to 40.6% in Especially fast growth in wind and solar. Rising energy costs and an increasing focus on environmental performance will combine to make energy management the most dynamic segment of the smart energy industry. Performance contracting will become customers preferred business model and suppliers will need to develop service capabilities or partner with energy service providers in order to play in the most dynamic part of the market. Technology shifts and customer expectations will force utilities to innovate away from traditional business models within the next 5 years. Home energy management, virtual power plants and micro-renewables are high growth markets where utilities will lose if they fail to innovate.