Vindkraft - ett lokalt och internationellt perspektiv May 13th, 215 Mikael Odenberger, Lisa Göransson, Thomas Unger and Karolina Nilsson
TWh TWh The four main scenarios for European electricity supply of the Pathways research programme TWh TWh 5 Reference 5 Climate Market 4 3 2 1 Existing capacity New renewables CCS New fossil 4 3 2 1 Existing capacity New renewables CCS New fossil New nuclear 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 5 4 3 2 1 Regional Policy Existing capacity New renewables New fossil New nuclear CCS 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 5 4 3 2 1 Green Policy Existing capacity New renewables New fossil 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25
TWh TWh Electricity supply in Sweden Green Policy Regional Policy 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Nuclear Hydro Wind Coal Fossil Biomass, waste, peat Other renewables Gross demand Nuclear Hydro Wind Coal Fossil Biomass, waste, peat Other renewables Gross demand Common EU cert. scheme Nuc.: 45 yrs lifetime +13 TWh RES-E 22-212 (common Swe-Nor cert. scheme) Nuc.: 6 yrs lifetime (new optional)
TWh TWh Electricity supply in west Sweden Green Policy Regional Policy 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 212 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 212 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Hydro Convent fossil Hydro Convent fossil Nuclear Biomass and waste Nuclear Biomass and waste Wind PV Wind PV Gross demand Gross demand -> Will require sufficient back-up either internally or through imports. During other time periods, large volumes of wind power will have to be exported Rough estimate: approx 18 TWh wind in 25 -> 8 GW compared to approx 5 GW max load and approx 2 GW hydro and thermal excl back-up
Future west Sweden rich in wind power Wind power resource base Electricity prices Electricity market (availability and price structure) Harmonizing measures (toolbox) DSM Linkages to the transport sector Linkages to the heating sector Trade
Available land surface for wind power installations Återstående ytor efter avdrag för vattendrag, infrastruktur, miljöoch naturskyddsområden, tättbebyggda områden (> 3 pp/km2) samt annat Available surface of total
Wind availability in the KASK region adapted to the level of detail in the model package Produktionsdata, det vill säga anpassat till en tänkt vindkraftpark (ca 1 meters rotorhöjd) (Chalmers vinddata baserat på ECMWF, (European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts) 9-13 timmar 13-18 timmar 18-22 timmar
What share of the estimated available land surface may be profitable for wind power exploitation? Full-load hours 35 3 25 2 ~55 EUR/MWh ~75 EUR/MWh Inv: 133 EUR/kW D&U: 25 EUR/kW 7%, 21 år 15 ~1 EUR/MWh 1 5 KASK- Norway KASK- Sweden 1 2 3 4 km2 If we assume 6-7 EUR/MWh as total revenue for wind power, apporoximately 1% of available surface is profitable to exploit under our assumptions BUT: If we put a wind farm on that surface -> 1 km2*1 kw/km2 = 1 GW!!! (alternatively, if we assume a higher revenue, the profitable surface increases)
Base case 23 (SWE) 9,5 GW Nuclear -> 55-6 TWh 6 year lifetime 16,7 GW Hydro power -> 65 TWh ca 5 GW CHP -> 14-16 TWh incl Backpreassure (ca 15 TWh today) (~4 GW Condens+Gas turb.) -> < 1 TWh (for a normal year) 11,5 GW Wind power -> 26 TWh (214 ca 5,5 GW -> ca 13 TWh) Sensitivity analysis by the dispatch-model EPOD: - Wind power levels of 15, 26, 5 och 7 TWh in Sweden by 23 - Nuclear power levels of GW, 5.6 GW (R3-4, O3 and F3 remains) and 9,5 GW kärnkraft i Sverige år 23 (in combination with 7 TWh wind)
1 16 211 316 421 526 631 736 841 946 151 1156 1261 1366 1471 1576 1681 1786 1891 1996 211 226 2311 2416 2521 2626 2731 2836 1 16 211 316 421 526 631 736 841 946 151 1156 1261 1366 1471 1576 1681 1786 1891 1996 211 226 2311 2416 2521 2626 2731 2836 GWh/3hr GWh/3hr Example: Swedish electricity generation up scaled wind power 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 26 TWh 5 TWh 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Increasing wind power from 26 to 5 TWh wind power -> Less nuclear and hydro power used more dynamic (more variations close to max/min capacity) CHP marginally lower Increased Net export Source: EPOD_Regional ( Reg P )
1 9 179 268 357 446 535 624 713 82 891 98 169 1158 1247 1336 1425 1514 163 1692 1781 187 1959 248 2137 2226 2315 244 2493 2582 2671 276 2849 EUR/MWh El. price distribution all cases for 23 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Price area SE3 Less available Nuclear (or other thermal power) -> more high price hours Increased wind power penetration -> more low price hours 15 TWh 23 26 TWh 23 5 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 7 TWh 23, 5,6 GW Nuc 7 TWh 23, NoNuc Results from sensitivity analysis: differences due to varying wind power and nuclear power levels only -> The more wind power the sharper price distribution -> Capacity surplus (remaining old power plants) dampen price spikes
SEK/MWh Average annual el. price (SE3) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Effect of increased wind power penetration (everything else constant) Effect of reduced nuclear capacity (everything else constant)
Example: extreme el. prices (percent of year; SE3) 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 212 15 TWh 23 26 TWh 23 Antal timmar<1 EUR/MWh 5 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 7 TWh 23, 5,6 GW Nuc 7 TWh 23, NoNuc Antal timmar>1 EUR/MWh Clear threashold, i.e., exrtreme prices more significant above 5TWh Explained by large trading capacity and hydro power
SEK/MWh Annual average electrcity price given different load/production situations 1 8 6 4 2 Årligt medelelpris för olika produktionsprofiler Minskande elpris med stigande årlig vindkraftproduktion Stigande elpris med minskande KK-kapacitet (allt annat lika) Elpris, tidsmedel över ett år Elpris, vindkraft Elpris, kraftvärme The larger wind power penetration the lower the average electrcity price Mainly bio CHP gain if nuclear is shut down (high prices during winter time)
SEK/MWh SEK/MWh Green certificates as driver for wind power? 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Elpris, vindkraft Elcertpris Marginalkostn för ny vind Elpris, tidsmedel över ett år Elcertpris Marginalkostn för ny vind -> Since prices are low when the wind blows the costs for wind power will have to be carried by the certificate scheme (or something else)
Variations in electricity prices at 7 TWh wind power 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 11 15 19 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 169 173 177 181 185 5 1 15 2 25 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 11 15 19 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 169 173 177 181 185 Serie1 Serie9 Serie8 Serie7 Serie6 Serie5 Serie4 Serie3 Serie2 Serie1
Toolbox Internal trade hydropower International trade geographical smoothening Demand Side Management Linkages to the transportation sector Linkages to the heat sector
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 11 15 19 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 GW 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 11 15 19 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 EUR/MWh Demand Side Management Households heating and hot water The building can store heat up to 1 hours Mainly in winter time Industry process dependent 3 25 2 15 1 5 without lines DSM 4 3 2 1 Serie1 Serie2
High cost intervals -duration 5 TWh wind Nuclear power in place 7 TWh wind No nuclear power
Linkages to the transportation sector EV:s and PHEV:s Charging of vehicles can be distributed over 8 hour periods office hour and night time Mainly workdays Electrofuels Easy storage over seasons All year
Low cost intervals -duration 5 TWh wind Nuclear power in place 7 TWh wind No nuclear power
Linkages to the heat sector Flexible CHP production Adjust alpha values depending on electricity price Long and short term variations Mainly in winter Heat pumps and electric boilers Use low cost electricity to produce heat Buildings and grids as heat storages 3-12h Mainly in winter