Merit Order of Energy Storages by 2030 The Impact of Technological Megatrends on Future Electricity Prices. Berlin, November 27, 2012

Transcription

1 Merit Order of Energy Storages by 2030 The Impact of Technological Megatrends on Future Electricity Prices Berlin, November 27,

2 Agenda Project Structure The Concept of the Functional Energy Storage Technological Megatrends Limitations in Price Fluctuations 2

3 Key Issues Which system infrastructure is most favorable under given framework conditions from a cost perspective for the electricity supply system? Which promotions have to be developed so that a favorable system infrastructure can be established on the market? 3

4 Project Structure Storage Technologies * ** Pumped Storage CHP + Heat Storage + Power2Heat - + Electromobility Power2Gas Further Technologies Flexibilization of Load Region Model Welfare and Market-Analysis 4 System Perspective Expansion Scenarios * SW Münster * * EWE

5 5 Definition Functional Energy Storage

6 Power/Load in GW Leistung/Last in GW Functional Energy Storage exemplified by CHP Stunde im Jahr Hour of the Year Negative Residual-Load Residual-Load Renewable Energies CHP Flexibile CHP Renewable + CHP 6

7 Power/Load in GW Leistung/Last in GW Leistung/Last in GW Functional Energy Storage exemplified by CHP Stunde im Jahr Hour of the Year Negative Residual-Load Residual-Load Renewable Energies CHP Flexibile CHP Renewable + CHP 7

8 Storage Power in GW Power/Load in in GW GW Leistung/Last in GW Leistung/Last in GW Functional Energy Storage exemplified by CHP Stunde im Jahr 15 Hour hour of the year Year Negative Residual-Load Residual-Load Renewable Energies CHP Flexibile CHP Renewable + CHP Hour of the Year

9 Technological Megatrends Power to Heat (P2H) Power to Gas (P2G) Electromobility 9 Flexibilization of Load

10 Technological Megatrends Power to Heat* 10 *In combination with CHP

11 Why Power2Heat? Power2Heat Technologies: heating blade electrode boiler heat pump Possible Applications: Backup for heat production or CHP production Avoiding cut offs in renewable energy production (CO 2 -Emssions decrease) Take advantage of low electricity prices at EEX (generate profit from prices below 10 /MWh*) Provide negative secondary control reserve: Average capacity fee: ~1.000 /MW** Invest.costs for electrode boiler: ~ /MW* Amortisation: ~67 weeks (excluding heat revenues!) 11 *SW Flensburg press release on ; Halle für Flensburgs "Stromheizung" termingerecht fertig - Stadtwerke Flensburg feiern Richtfest ** October

12 CHP el. generation as share of total net electricity generation CHP Political Target Target: 25% of German electricity production by CHP until 2020 Measure: CHP Act since 2002 previous development and outlook: year 12 significant measures are required in order to reach the ambitious target

13 13 CHP - Potential

14 Power2Heat - Potential e-boiler capacity max. thermal load (district heating) share SW Flensburg 30 MW 320 MW 9% Germany MW MW 9% Average secondary control reserve demand in 2011: ~2.000 MW collapse of negative control reserve market? 14

15 15 Technological Megatrends Power to Gas

16 Power-to-Gas The Concept Motivation: With an increasing share of RES in the future long-term storage of energy in the order of TWh might be necessary transmission capacity of the gas grid > transmission capacity of the electricity grid The Concept [1] 16 Source: [1] Specht, Michael; Zuberbühler, Ulrich: Power-to-Gas (P2G ): Layout, operation and results of the 25 and 250 kwel research plants. Stuttgart: Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung (ZSW), 2012

17 Power-to-Gas Efficiency Power Transmission and Storage renewable energy (wind and pv) Power-to-Gas H 2 renewable energy (wind and pv) Power-to-Gas CH 4 renewable energy (wind and pv) 100,0 % transformer 95,0 % 380 kv power supply line (500 km) 90,3 % pumped-storage hydropower plant 72,2 % power transmission and storage 100,0 % transformer and rectifier 95,0 % electrolysis incl. add. components 71,3 % compressor, storage, H 2 transmission line 70,2 % transport (500 km) 69,9 % Power-to-Gas-H 2 (power transmission and storage) 100,0 % transformer and rectifier 95,0 % electrolysis incl. add. components 71,3 % methanation 57,1 % compressor, storage, H 2 transmission line 56,3 % transport (500 km) 56,1 % Power-to-Gas-CH 4 (power transmission and storage) 17 Source: Müller-Syring, Gert; Henel, Marco: Power-to-Gas - Konzepte, Kosten, Potenziale. Leipzig: DBI GUT GmbH, 2011

18 Power-to-Gas Hydrogen Production Costs electricity costs 0 ct/kwh el spec. capital cost* AEL PEMEL /kw el other cost (share of capital cost) 10 % efficiency (for AEL and PEMEL) 80 % depreciation 25 a rate of interest 6 % full load hours of electrolysis are obviously crucial for hydrogen production costs how many full load hours for electrolysis operation might be reached in the future? 18 *possible prices in future

19 Power-to-Gas Hydrogen Production Costs time of negative residual load in h/a full load hours for 1 GW electrolysis power in h/a times of negative residual load ( +10 GW power generation for stabilization purposes) GW power generation for stabilization purposes

20 Power-to-Gas Hydrogen Production Costs resulting hydrogen production cost full load hours for 1 GW electrolysis power in h/a full load hours hydrogen production cost in ct/kwh th H 2 (cost after reconversion in ct/kwh el *) AEL PEMEL (6442) 7731 (12885) (61) 74 (123) (26) 31 (52) (8) 9 (15) GW power generation * assumption: 60 % efficiency (gas turbine combined cycle)

21 21 Technological Megatrends - Electromobility

22 REEV** BEV* Electromobility Potential Electrical Mileage Charging Power [kw] Battery Office 20 kwh 40 kwh ,6 % 79,2 % ,2 % 79,9 % ,1 % 79,7 % 22 Charging Power [kw] * Battery Electric Vehicle, ** Range Extended Electrical Vehicle Battery Office 10 kwh 20 kwh ,8 % 78,8 % ,3 % 81,9 % ,9 % 54,8 % ,8 % 56,7 %

23 Hour of Day parking probability within 15 minutes Hour of Day parking probability within 15 minutes Electromobility Usability office Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su average daily consumption: 8 10 kwh charging time about 3 to 4 hours percentage of parking time: % 23

24 Electromobility Mio EV s Mio EV s 24 *rsl = residual load

25 25 Technological Megatrends Flexibilization of Load

26 Electricity demand [GWh] Potential of Demand Side Management for Industrial Processes Dena Netzstudie II Average DSM Potential MW positive DSM Potential 410 MW negative DSM Potential DSM potential [MW] Electricity demand [GWh] Positive DSM-potential [MW] Negative DSM-potential [MW] Aluminum Chemistry Steel Paper Cement positive = reduction of load negative = increase of load 26 Source: EWI, 2010

27 Electricity demand [GWh] Demand Side Management Potential for Commerce, Trade and Services Dena Netzstudie II Average DSM-Potential MW positive MW negative (mainly night storage heating) DSM potential [MW] Electricity demand [GWh] Positive DSM-potential [MW] Negative DSM-potential [MW] Process Cooling Process Heat Venting Climatization Heating 27 Source: EWI, 2010

28 Technical Potential of Flexible Load [MW] Demand Side Management for Industrial Processes residual sectors glass sector mechanical engineering vehicle sector metal processing paper chemistry food min 15 min 1 h 4 h 28

29 29 Limitations in Price Fluctuations

30 Residual Load [GW] Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load Scenario PV: 60 GW Wind: 60 GW Scenario PV: 30 GW Wind: 30 GW Hour of the Day FfE MOS_00064 Minimum in the morning and during noon Maximum during early noon and evening 30 Choose timeframes according to this observation in order to analyze the dynamics of the residual load

31 Difference between the Maximimum and Minimum of the Residual Load within used Timeframes Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load 31 Minimum of the Residual Load (rsl) within Timeframe

32 32 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load

33 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load Today 33

34 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load Today 34

35 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load Today 35

36 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load Today 36

37 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load Today 37

38 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load Today 38

39 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load educated guessing on how storage technologies can influence the residual load Power 2 Heat + 2 GW Power 2 Gas GW Electromobility GW Flexibilization of Load +/- 1 2 GW Pumped Hydro Storage +/- 2-3 GW Increased Im-/Export capacities +/- 2-3 GW Today GW possible shift by storage technologies

40 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Volatility of the Residual Load Today Though plenty of the points lie within the grey shaded area we will have to expect significant price fluctuations! 40

41 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Conclusion The expected increase of price fluctuations can be limited by storage technologies to a certain extend Downwards? limited by marginal costs of emerging storage technologies depending on available power and capacity Upwards? hard coal as well as gas prices decharging capacity of storage technologies Flexibilization of Load Electromobility (depending on charging strategy) 41

42 Limitations in Price Fluctuations - Conclusion Which Markets will have to deal with increasing price fluctuations? Day-Ahead: enough capacity rare occurrences of extremely low prices chance for DSM? Control reserve: Minute Reserve: hardly any revenues possible Secondary Control Reserve: Positive: extremely low revenues, going down to zero Negative: still attractive for some applications Intraday: low online-capacity demand for high flexibility high price volatility expected. high uncertainty (grid restrictions, ) 42

43 Thank you for your attention and the support of 43 Christoph Pellinger: /