Danish Energy Model RE Policy Tools MAIN Asian Dialog, Bali January Mr. Henrik Breum Special Advisor

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1 Danish Energy Model RE Policy Tools MAIN Asian Dialog, Bali January Mr. Henrik Breum Special Advisor

2 Agenda Danish Energy Model RE Policy Tools Introduction The Danish Energy Model Past, now and in the future Policy drivers RE Policies and Regulatory Frameworks Key elements of Danish Energy policy Creating a stable and bankable framework for RE Integrating large scale RE supply System adaptation and integration Cooperation with neighboring countries Next steps - Fossil free energy system by 2050 Utilizing lessons learned in an Asian context

3 Denmark 40 years ago - energy was imported and fossil based oil crisis: Denmark were 99% dependent on imported energy Oil crisis caused a severe economic crisis, unemployment - and no non-commercial driving on Sundays Car free Sundays in Denmark as a result of the oil crisis in 1973

4 40 years later - a totally different energy system Quick facts Net export of oil and gas (only EU-country) Lowest energy consumption per GDP-unit in EU Highest contribution to electricity from new renewables (non-hydro) world wide: 43 % in 2012 Most efficient clean coal technology in the world Highest export share of energy technology in the EU: 10.8 % of total export of goods in Export of green energy technology increased 17.6 % in 2013 Leading nation of advanced energy solutions (district heating and CHP, wind turbines, biomass plants, energy saving technologies, etc.)

5 The Danish Energy Model - de-coupling economic growth, energy consumption and GHG emissions Index: 1990 = reasons: CHP/DH, Renew. Energy Energy Savings

6 Policy drivers - in the past and the future 70 s Security of supply Cheap energy Post millennium Climate change Security of supply Green growth National resource scarcity Cost-effective

7 RE Policies & Regulatory Frameworks Creating a stable framework

8 Danish Energy Policies - Clear short and long-term targets

9 Key elements of Danish energy policy - and energy agreements Policy content Cost-effective subsidy schemes Energy taxes on fossil fuels Support for RD&D Energy Policy Agreements Broad political consensus Long-term energy strategies and agreements Dialogue with sector stakeholders A stable framework with flexibility Unbundling with EE and RE priority

10 Specific policy challenges for renewable energy sources Challenges High initial investments High fixed capital costs In-flexibility (wind) Resource variations Bankability and Investor Confident Declining generation costs Policy choices Stable long-term frameworks Stable feed-in prices Priority grid & market access Support based upon full-loads Well-funded support schemes and high-rated counterpart Continuing cost analysis

11 Integrating large scale RE supply System adaptation and integration

12 Production of renewable energy by product (PJ) Renewable energy in Denmark - greening the energy supply '95 '00 '05 '10 '12 Wind Straw Wood Biogas Waste, renewable Others

13 Electricity generation - by fuel

14 Why wind? - Cheapest option currently (LCOE)

15 RE system integration - from Centralized to Decentralized Power Production Centralized production in the mid 80 s Decentralized production of today Legend: Decentralized CHP Centralized CHP Wind mill park

16 Integration wind power Capacity and share of domestic electricity supply % % 25% 20% % % 5% '95 '00 '05 '10 '12 0% Wind power onshore capacity, MW Wind power's share of domestic electricity Wind power offshore capacity, MW

17 Handling large quantities of RE Planning & Forecasting System snapshot: January 2015 Back-up capacity Effective & Transparent power markets (NordPool) Strong inter connection national as well as international Buying flexibility in the RE sector Balancing cost for wind: App. EUR 20 per MWh 1 1) +50% wind penetration. Source: Ea Energy Analyses

18 Next Steps Fossil free energy system by 2050

19 Danish energy target: 100% renewable energy by 2050 Further strong improvement of energy efficiency in all sectors Electrification Increased use of renewable energy Flexibility (demand, cross-border, etc.)

20 5 Energy scenarios

21 Results from Danish scenarios - relatively low-cost transition Various fossil-free energy systems possible with known technology electrification, energy efficiency & savings are no regrets Wind and hydrogen scenarios: Fuel secure but challenged on security of electricity supply Bio + scenario: challenged on fuel safety higher national security of electricity supply Additional costs 5-23% relative to a fossil system The transition must begin shortly after 2020

22 Utilizing lessons learned - in an Asian context

23 Putting Danish learning to use - Chinese-Danish cooperation Government to government cooperation between the Danish Energy Agency and Chinese National Renewable Energy Centre (under the NEA) spans a number of activities related to promotion of renewables in China Examples: 1. Development of RES scenarios for China 2. Integration of wind power into the power system the Baicheng project 3. Demonstration project in Yilan, Heilongjiang 4. Planning for offshore wind

24 Putting Danish learning to use - the Baicheng project Integrating large scale wind capacity Baicheng - Wind integration Project The purpose is to integrate thermal and wind power production Currently curtailment of wind production at least 30% of the potential production Thermal power production has priority over wind in the dispatch of power Total potential for wind power in the area: 22,800 MW Current max. demand in Baicheng is 430 MW District heating system in Baicheng with inhabitants

25 Conclusion - Key messages De-linking Economic Growth, GHG and Energy Consumption Stable policy frameworks for investment and finance security Dedicated private sector needs to deliver solutions Thank you for your attention

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