The Role and Effect of Wind Energy in the Northern European Electricity Market - Insights from the Danish Energy Concept 2030

Transcription

1 The Role and Effect of Wind Energy in the Northern European Electricity Market - Insights from the Danish Energy Concept 2030 IEA Report Launch Danish Wind Industri Association Anders Bavnhøj Hansen, Chief engineer, Energinet.dk Loui Algren, Energy Planner, Energinet.dk abh@energinet.dk/loa@energinet.dk Energy concept 2030

2 Agenda 1. The energi system transition towards a wind-power dominated system Results from Energy concept 2030 (Anders) 2. Wind power time serie analysis for Denmark and Northern Europe (Loui) 3. Onshore wind power cost of energy and potential for DK (Loui) 4. Questions and discussion Energy concept 2030

3 $/barrel Energy system performance evaluated by simulation Energy ressource Energy system Energy service Wind Solar Biomass Natural gas 160, Fossil 140, oil Coal Etc 120, 100, 80, 60, 40, 20, 0, Gasbehandling Windvariation Historisk oliepris Oil-price Import el Vind Bølge Bio, affald mv. Kul Naturg Olie Import Bio Ethanol Gas Kraftvarme Anaerob Electricity El-system Fjern- og blokvarme systemer Gas-systemer (metan/syntesegas/h2) Gaslagre Elektrolyse Heat Flytransport Central varmep. Gasses Liqued fuels Decentral varmep. Termisk forgasnin Flydende brændstoffer (Benzin, Diesel, Metanol, DME etc.) Varmep Kedel EV ICE/FC Export el El-proces lys, it, køl Bygn opvarmn. Sol- Procesvarme Vejtransport Banetransport Søtransport Building heating Proces-heat Cooling Light, IT etc. Transport Sustainable ressources Integrated energy system Robust, flexible and efficient Minimised, low and stable costs Total performance for system evaluated. System property to damp step on ressource prices (low -faktors) Price inkl. hedging = Price excl. hedging + Price hedging = Price exc. hedging + n x (Ressource price hedging Ressource price excl. hedging) SIFRE and perspectives for city and national planning

4 International Scenario Framework in the analysis ENTSO-E TYNDP : IEA WEO 2050 : IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2050 A framework of international scenarios used to evaluate robustness of strategic choices Energy concept 2030

5 RE-electricity ressources DK Socio-economic cost of energy 2030 excl. integration Cost of electricity Bio-CHP 100 /MWh Landvind Onshore wind Offshore wind Coal-CHP (interval) Power consumption scenarios Onshore wind (high scenario) Offshore wind (up to 35 m depth) Offshore wind (more than 35 m depth) PV solar Wave power Bio CHP Technology data 2014/2015 and 4% discount For solar without field based plants Energy concept 2030

6 A scenario towards RE-based energy system in DK Power system Gas system Heat system (DH/block) Individual heat (netto) Industrial heat (netto) Transport work (netto) HP EV/PHEV P2G i-hp HT- HP Wind/PV etc. Biomass/waste Natural gas Oil/coal RE-gas/biofuels DH/surplus heat etc. El Wind/solar x4 doubled Power consumption almost doubled Energy concept 2030

7 Storage capacity and system balancing case ,3 TWh Gas storage (11 TWh methan-gas) Energy input to power-to-gas Total interconnectors exchange (MWh/h) Total interconncetors accumulated (GWh) Interconnectors yearly accumulated case 2035 (2,3 TWh) District heat+storage Indivi. heat pump El- og plugin hybrid case 2035 Interconnectors essential for balancing hour/day/months Flexible consumption essential for minute/hour/day/week balancing Gas system could handle the balancing (power-gas-power) but a more expensive solution Energy concept 2030

8 Flexible consumption as ancillary service and grid backup (n-1) Flexible consumption analysed as grid reserve (n-1) Flexible consumption as grid reserve can increase the use of transmission (long horizon solution) Wind and solar (blue) Total power consumption (red) -flexible consumption (green) Flexible consumption as grid reserve Flexible consumption as ancillary service Demand for ancillery service (5 min interval) Flexible consumption also essential as: - Grid reserve (TSO/DSO) - Ancillery services DK Energy concept 2030

9 Today few hours with negative/low power prices MWh/h 4000 Neg. price 46 hours (0,5 pct.) 0 1,35 c/kwh 355 hours (4,1 pct.) 1,35 2,7 c/kwh timer (22,0 pct.) 2,7 c 4 c/kwh timer (61,4 pct.) 4 5,3 c/kwh 845 timer (9,6 pct.) > 5,3 øre/kwh 205 timer (2.3 pct.) MWh/h Power production, import/export DK Import (Udland-DK1) Solceller (DK1) Vind (DK1) Decentral (DK1) Central (DK1) Eksport (DK1- Udland) Eksport (DK1-DK2) Hours with negative power prices few hours, but a lot of debate! Energy concept

10 Forecasted windpower relative market value Wind prices relative to mean price More windpower + More flexible consumption => The market value of windpower stays at an acceptable level Reduced power prices => Reduced producer surplus + increased consumer surplus => The total energy system socio-economic more resilent 12

11 10 Years Time Series of Wind Balancing DK and Neighbouring Countries in Extreme Situations - Residual Load Approach

12 Week of Highest Residual Load - based on 10 years of weather data scenario Almost no wind in one week in a row at the same time as load is high ENS / ENDK

13 Week of LOWEST Residual Load - based on 10 years of weather data scenario Over-production every single hour of an entire week ENS / ENDK

14 Max Residual in Periods of 1 Hour to 1 Year Peak residual load of ca. 6.5 GW in 1 hour. Mean residual load of 12 hours to 7 days is not much lower ENS / ENDK

15 To Which Extent can DSR Solve the Problem? Only in short periods up to 6 hours. Now the max residual load is in a 12 hours period ENS / ENDK

16 Potential of Onshore Wind Power in Denmark

17 Economical Approach LCOE = n t=1 n t=1 Expenses t 1+r t Production t 1+r t = Inv.+acquisition+ comp.+ O&M t t=1 n t=1 Production 1+r t n 1+r t ENS / ENDK

18 Conclusion: >12 GW onshore potential ENS / ENDK

19 Conclusion: Acquisition of buildings is the determining expense ENS / ENDK

20 Conclusion: Wind speed is less important ENS / ENDK

21 Summing up.. System analysis towards 2035 and 2050 (economically and technically) has been carried out in the Energy Concept 2030 analysis. Acceptable system balances and a sound system socio economy is found taking into account that technology and concept challenges are solved! International integration in combination with flexible consumption essential for system balancing and reducing the need for power backup capacity. Using flexible consumption for grid reserves could improve the use of grid and minimize the need for ancillery services supply from thermal units. Denmark has a high unused potential for onshore wind power that could be beneficial for the total cost of energy supply A need for R&D&D to pave the way for new system concepts A need for framework conditions to pave the way for electrification Energy concept 2030

22 Thank you! Energinet.dk/energianalyser ENS / ENDK