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World Energy Scenarios The Role of Hydropower in Composing Energy Futures to 2050 Presentation at the World Hydropower Congress Session 2050 GW by 2050: What are the scenarios? Beijing, 20 May 2015 Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer Executive Chair, World Energy Resources, World Energy Council, London World Energy Council 2013

Table of contents Global status in 2014 Drivers of hydropower expansion and prospects Methodology and assumptions of the WEC scenarios Results of the WEC scenario study: global level Results by world region Findings and conclusion World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 2

Role of hydropower in global electricity generation More than 1,000 GW of installed capacity Share in electricity generation totalled 17 % in 2014 Third most important source in electricity generation after coal & gas By far the most important renewable energy source > 70 % of total renewables-based electricity production Also: Pumped-storage hydro plants play an important role as they provide balancing power, in particular for various renewable sources World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 3

Renewable energy share in global electricity production, 2014 Global power production 23,600 TWh Including renewables ~ 5,400 TWh Fossil fuels 67 % Renewables 23 % 10 % Nuclear Geothermal, CSP and Ocean < 1 % Kernenergie Solar PV 14 % Biopower 2 % Hydro 17 % Wind 3 % Source: World Energy Council, REN 21, IHA, own estimates World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 4

TOP 8 countries for hydropower in 2014 Total capacity Added in 2014 Generation GW MW TWh China 300 21,850 1,070 Brazil 89 3,312 392 Canada 78 1,724 376 United States 101 212 257 Russia 49 1,058 164 Norway 31-136 India 44 1,195 125 Japan 45 724 85 Rest of the world 318 14,925 1,345 World total 1,055 45,000 3,950 Source: IHA and REN 21 World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 5

Global hydropower generation since 1980 Source: IHA, EIA, REN21 Renewables 2014 Global Status Report World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 6

TOP 10 countries by remaining hydropower potential Total potential Current Undeveloped utilisation TWh/year % TWh/year Russia 1,670 10 1,502 China 2,140 41 1,259 Canada 1,181 32 799 India 660 21 523 Brazil 818 48 425 Indonesia 402 3 389 Peru 395 6 373 DR Congo 314 2 307 Tajikistan 317 5 301 U.S. 529 52 256 Source: International Hydropower Association World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 7

Table of contents Global status in 2014 Drivers of hydropower expansion and prospects Methodology and assumptions of the WEC scenarios Results of the WEC scenario study: global level Results by world region Findings and conclusion World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 8

Main drivers of hydropower expansion Increasing access to electricity supply Improving security of electricity supply Providing affordable electricity by reducing the risks associated with the volatility of fossil-fuel import costs Preserve fossil energy resources CO 2 emission limitation Balance intermittent renewables such as wind and solar World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 9

Forecasts and scenario results for hydropower 3,672 Global electricity generation in TWh 4,785 4,762 5,004 5,810 6,232 6,222 5,146 6,530 IEA 2012 Exxon Mobil EIA Ref. IEA NPS Exxon Mobil 2025 2040 EIA Ref. IEA NPS Jazz Symphony WEC Source: IEA, Exxon Mobil, EIA, WEC World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 10

Table of contents Global status in 2014 Drivers of hydropower expansion and prospects Methodology and assumptions of the WEC scenarios Results of the WEC scenario study: global level Results by world region Findings and conclusion World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 11

WEC's latest scenario study Comprises two scenarios: Both are designed to help a range of stakeholders address the energy trilemma, i.e. to achieve environmental sustainability energy security, and energy equity Stories quantified by Paul Scherrer Institute (project partner) World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 12

Deriving the scenario stories Two scenario stories were developed, exploratory not normative, equally probable but differentiated rather than good and bad. Jazz Priority is given to energy equity, with a focus on achieving growth through low-cost energy. Symphony Environmental sustainability and security of supply are being prioritised through internationally co-ordinated politics and instruments. World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 13

Quantification assumptions Input parameters Jazz Symphony GDP growth 3.54 % p.a. 3.06 % p.a. Population 2050 = 8.7 billion 2050 = 9.3 billion Energy intensity -2.29 % p.a. -2.44 % p.a. CO 2 prices 2050: 23-45 USD/tCO 2 2050: 75-80 USD/tCO 2 Pol. support for technologies Instruments Limited; energy choices based on free market principles -> only limited nuclear, CCS, and large hydro CO 2 markets emerge with no internationally binding commitments -> bottom-up through national, regional, and local initiatives Stronger govt. support for nuclear, CCS, and large hydro Transition to emissions trading as a cost-efficient market instrument, based on globally agreed climate protection targets World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 14

Table of contents Global status in 2014 Drivers of hydropower expansion and prospects Methodology and assumptions of the WEC scenarios Results of the WEC scenario study: global level Results by world region Findings and conclusion World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 15

Global power generation 1,000 TWh 4% 5% 21.5 16% 13% 22% 40% 7% 35.2 13% 10% 28% 42% Jazz 2% 1% 1% 2% 53.6 6% 8% 3% 11% 6% 24% 36% 31.9 Symphony 47.9 2010 2030 2050 2030 2050 1% 2% 1% 6% 8% 17% 15% 25% 25% 2% 2% 16% 8% 4% 16% 14% 5% 15% 15% 3% Others Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass (incl. CCS) Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas (incl. CCS) Gas Oil Coal (incl. CCS) Coal Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013 World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 16

Global renewables-based electricity production 8,000 TWh Jazz 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Hydro Biomass Biomass (with CCS) Wind Solar Geothermal 1,000 0 Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013 World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 17

Global renewables-based electricity production TWh 8,000 Symphony 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Hydro Biomass Biomass (with CCS) Wind Solar Geothermal 1,000 0 Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013 World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 18

Capacity, production and share of hydropower in global electricity production 2010 2030 2050 Capacity in GW Jazz 1,026 1,267 1,575 Symphony 1,026 1,505 2,161 Production in TWh Jazz 3,491 4,550 5,789 Symphony 3,491 5,408 7,701 Share of hydropower Jazz 16 % 13 % 11 % Symphony 16 % 17 % 16 % Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013 World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 19

Development of global CO₂ emissions The role of hydropower in the WEC scenarios in billion tons 50 Jazz 40 30 20 Hydropower impact Hydropower impact Symphony 10 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013 and own calculations World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 20

Table of contents Global status in 2014 Drivers of hydropower expansion and prospects Methodology and assumptions of the WEC scenarios Results of the WEC scenario study: global level Results by world region Findings and conclusion World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 21

Map of the eight regions World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 22

Share of hydropower in total electricity 2010 production by world region 12 16 13 16 Scenario Jazz, 2050 Scenario Symphony, 2050 11 14 3 2 1 16 6 13 14 11 16 62 AFRICA (Sub- Saharan) 22 32 46 7 18 6 12 13 World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 23

Table of contents Global status in 2014 Drivers of hydropower expansion and prospects Methodology and assumptions of the WEC scenarios Results of the WEC scenario study: global level Results by world region Findings and conclusion World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 24

Key quantitative hydropower-related findings of the WEC scenarios Global power generation rises by 150 % (Jazz)/123 % (Symphony) by 2050 compared with 2010 Renewables share in power generation increases from 20 % (2010) to 31 % (Jazz)/48 % (Symphony) in 2050 Hydropower will remain the most important renewable source in Jazz sharing this role with solar in Symphony in 2050 (16 % each for hydro and solar in 2050) In Jazz, CO 2 emissions increase until 2040; in Symphony, this trend is reversed from 2020/2025 onwards World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 25

Conclusion Hydropower plays/will continue to play an important role in electricity supply. The contribution of hydropower to electricity generation saved 3.3 billion tons of CO 2 emissions in 2014; from 2015 to 2050 hydropower will help avoid over 120 billion tons of CO 2 emissions. There is still a lot of hydropower potential at global level that can be exploited, which will increase the importance of hydropower in achieving the central energy-policy and climate targets. To meet the sustainability targets, internationally agreed policies as well as market instruments are indispensable. World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 26