KAYA IDENTITY ANALYSIS OF DECARBONIZATION OF THE NY ECONOMY REQUIRED FOR CLIMATE ACTION PLAN GOAL OF 40% REDUCTION BY 2030

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1 KAYA IDENTITY ANALYSIS OF DECARBONIZATION OF THE NY ECONOMY REQUIRED FOR CLIMATE ACTION PLAN GOAL OF 40% REDUCTION BY 2030 Roger Caiazza Not representing EEANY

2 DISCLAIMERS The following analysis does not reflect the position of any of my employers either present or past nor do they reflect the position of Environmental Energy Alliance of New York member companies. The analysis is based on the work of Dr. Roger A. Pielke, Jr. documented in The Climate Fix: What scientists and politicians won t tell you about global warming. Basic Books, 276 pp., ISBN The presentation is based on Pielke s presentation to Colorado Air Quality Control Commission 2/18/10

3 NEW YORK CLIMATE ACTION PLAN Governor Paterson signed Executive Order 24 on August 6, 2009, setting a goal to reduce New York's greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent below levels emitted in year 1990 by year Interim Report describes both mitigation and adaptation policy options and summarizes the costs and benefits of adopting these policies. This analysis takes an independent look at the interim goal of a 40% reduction by 2030.

4 DR. PIELKE S POSITION He is a strong advocate for both mitigation and adaptation policies The continuing increase in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide could pose large risks, as described by the IPCC Stabilizing concentrations at low levels cannot succeed if we underestimate the challenge (and we have) Mitigation action will not result from the elimination of all scientific uncertainty The poisonous politics of the climate debate serves to limit a broader discussion of options Ultimately, technological innovation makes political action easier, not vice versa

5 WHERE DO NY EMISSIONS COME FROM? Factor Parameter Relationship People Population P Economic Activity GSP per capita GSP/P Energy Use Carbon Emissions Energy intensity of economy Carbon intensity of energy TE/GSP C/TE GSP TE C Carbon emissions = C = P * * * P GSP TE The Kaya Identity

6 WHAT TOOLS DO WE HAVE TO REDUCE EMISSIONS? Factor Lever Policy Approach P Population Less people Population Management GSP/P GSP per capita Smaller economy Limit generation of wealth TE/GSP Energy Intensity Increase efficiency Do same or more with less energy C/TE Carbon Intensity Switch energy sources Generate energy with less emissions

7 DECARBONIZATION DEFINED

8 DECARBONIZATION: CO2 PER $1,000 GSP Decarbonization of the economy is reflected in a decrease in the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to gross state product New York Current Baseline (average ) million metric tons of CO2 Gross State Product $ (Million of 2000 $) 0.23 tonnes CO2 per $1,000 GSP.. In a manner consistent with stabilization targets

9 FIRST, SOME GOOD NEWS

10 NOW SOME BAD NEWS.

11 BOTTOM UP ANALYSIS Project population and economic growth then project technological change needed to meet target NY Population growth projections are flat to 2030 The average annual Per Capita New York Gross State Product growth rate from 1990 to 2008 was 2.02%, for the ten-year period 1999 to 2008 was 2.91% and for the last five years, 2004 to 2008, was 3.36% Economic activity is expected to increase CO2 emissions from the baseline of to million metric tons in In order to meet target of 132 million tonnes the decarbonization rate has to be 1.7% with no growth or with 2% growth 2.9%

12 TOP DOWN ANALYSIS Combine projections of population and economic growth to determine per capita economic growth Decarbonization rate needed for the economy to meet the Climate Action Plan goals can be calculated Projected with six levels of growth between 0.5% and 3% Annual average decarbonization rates necessary to meet 2030 goal ranges from 2.1% to 3.2%. Carbon intensity of the New York economy is going to have to be reduced between 40 and 65% in the next 20 years.

13 IMPLIED DECARBONIZATION OF THE NEW YORK STATE ECONOMY FOR 40% REDUCTION IN EMISSIONS FROM 1990 LEVELS BY 2030

14 PIELKE ON DECARBONIZATION RATES How fast can decarbonization occur? Honest answer is no one knows Historical rates of 1-2% per year have occurred in developed countries For short periods rates >2% have occurred Achieving NY Climate Action Plan 40% reduction by 2030 with no growth requires decarbonization rate of just under 2% Achieving NY Climate Action Plan 40% reduction by 2030 with 2% growth requires decarbonization rate of around 3%

15 DECARBONIZATION SCENARIOS Ramp up nuclear or wind to replace CO2 emitting fuels Synapse Energy Beyond Business as Usual: Investigating a Future without Coal and Nuclear Power in the US cited by environmentalist commenters Reduce mobile source emissions

16 NREL EWITS National Renewable Energy Laboratory Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study. It was initiated in 2008 to examine the operational impact of up to 20-30% energy penetration of wind on the power system in the Eastern Interconnect of the United States A precursor to EWITS known as the Eastern Wind Data Study identified more than 700 GW of potential future wind plant sites for the eastern United States.

17 NYS CARBON FREE ENERGY FACILITIES Facility Description 2009 Energy (GWh) Maple Ridge I Wind Farm NREL EWITS MW Turbines 66 NY On- Shore Sites Capacity (GWh) , % 33, % Capacity Factor Nine Mile 2 Nuclear 9,920 10, %

18 METHODOLOGY TO CALCULATE HOW MUCH CARBON FREE POWER IS NEEDED Because not all fuel is burned to generate electricity you need a conversion factor On average in , 216 TBtu of coal energy was burned to produce 20,996 GWh of electricity Coal rate was 97.3 Gwhr/TBtu In 2009, Nine Mile 2 produced 9,920 GWh so the equivalent energy needed was 9,920/97.3 or 102 Tbtu Average total coal use was Tbtu Therefore, 2.5 replacement Nine Mile 2 units (254.9/102) would be needed to replace energy

19 WILD GUESS SCENARIO FUEL USE REDUCTION TO MEET 2030 GOAL 2030 w/ 0.3% growth: million tonnes Goal 132 million tonnes Source Energy (Tbtu) CO Coal Residual Distillate Kerosene EGU Gas Total 1,334 97

20 HOW DO WE REPLACE 1,334 TBTU TO GET THE 97 MILLION TONNE REDUCTION? Source Nine Mile 2 Maple Ridge 1 All NY EWITS Coal Residual Distillate Kerosene EGU Gas Total

21 SYNAPSE NO COAL AND NO NUCLEAR ENERGY MIX IN 2050 Energy efficiency reduces total energy used 7% Retire all coal Retire 72% of nuclear generation Wind energy provides 31% of needs Solar PV provides 6% of needs Biomass provides 7% of needs Reduce aviation CO2 by 34% Reduce natural gas and automobile emissions to get to energy predicted by 7% reduction 95% reduction in all other petroleum

22 PREDICTED % OF GOAL Synapse Transition Baseline CO2 Energy CO2 Energy mm tonnes (Tbtu) mm tonnes (Tbtu) Coal Natural Gas ,153.5 Distillate Residual Kerosene LPG Car Gas Aviation Hydro Nuclear Imports Biofuels Wind 1,209.2 Solar PV Total , ,194.4

23 2050 GOAL REDUCTIONS NEEDED Synapse Transition Baseline Bottom CO2 Energy CO2 Energy Up % mm tonnes (Tbtu) mm tonnes (Tbtu) Reduction Coal % Natural Gas , % Distillate % Residual % Kerosene % LPG % Car Gas % Aviation % Hydro Nuclear % Imports Biofuels Wind 1,209.2 Solar PV Total , ,194.4 EE/RE Energy 3,900.8

24 PIELKE ON CURRENT POLICY OPTIONS The policy logic of targets and timetables is exactly backwards CO2 Cap and Trade cannot succeed Carbon tax alone cannot do the job How do we deal with other wicked problems Advancing human life spans Increasing agricultural production 1.5 billion people without electricity

25 CAN WE CHANGE THE NARRATIVE? From We use too much energy Fossil fuels are too cheap To We need more energy Fossil fuels are too expensive

26 PIELKE S RECOMMENDED ALTERNATIVE Focus policy on decarbonization of the economy (not simply emissions) Efficiency gains Expand carbon free energy Innovation-focused investments Air capture backstop Adaptation