SPECIFIC SUPPORT ACTION. Contract number: Start date of contract: 1 st January 2005

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1 Amsterdam, October-2006 RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL COUNTRY REPORT CAMEROON SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME PRIORITY 3 Underpinning the economic potential and cohesion of a larger and more integrated EU SPECIFIC SUPPORT ACTION Project Acronym: Project full title: Contract number: Start date of contract: 1 st January 2005 RECIPES Renewable Energy in emerging and developing countries: Current situation, market Potential and recommendations for a win-win-win for EU industry, the Environment and local Socio-economic development Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 1 of 30

2 Table of contents Abbreviations and definitions... 3 Preface... 4 Executive Summary Introduction The RECIPES project This document Other RECIPES documents Present and future energy situation Overall present energy situation (2003) Expected energy situation (2020) RE potential for various market technology combinations Methodology used for the RE potential assessment Characteristics of the present situation Theoretical renewable market potential TREMP Future drivers and barriers Renewable energy market potential REMP Realistic total RE potential Key factors for Cameroon to increase RE implementation Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 2 of 30

3 Abbreviations and definitions EDI GJ IEA Mtoe Mton MW RE % RE Energy Development Index Giga Joule = 10 9 Joule. The unit of energy International Energy Agency Mega Tonnes Oil Equivalent. Unit of energy quantity, worldwide use as unit for the energy consumption of a country Mega ton = 10 9 kg Megawatt. Unit of power generation capacity used for fossil plants as well as for wind-energy, hydro and other RE sources. Percentage of RE as part of the total energy supply or electricity supply. We indicate where RE includes or excludes large hydro. The RE-percentage in relation to the total primary energy consumption relates to the countries total Total Primary Energy Supply including traditional biomass. Where this is not the case it is indicated. The RE-percentage in relation to the total electricity supply: this relates to the total electricity produced, not to the primary energy needed to produce the electricity. Renewable Energy. There is no universally accepted definition of renewable energy. Especially some techniques like large hydro or energy from waste are disputable. We use the definition of each country if it relates directly to the targets set. In the reports of the in-depth country studies and the extrapolation to the 99 other countries we state what definitions are used. Traditional biomass is not regarded to be RE. RECIPES Renewable Energy in emerging and developing countries: Current situation, market Potential and recommendations for a win-win-win for EU industry, the Environment and local Socio-economic development REMP TP TWh TPES TREMP Wp RE Market Potential. The amount of renewable energy which, given all possible restrictions (practical, economical, juridical, etc.) is likely to be produced. Technical Renewable Energy Potential; the amount of renewable energy which, based on the best available renewable energy technologies, can be produced. (i.e. for solar and wind energy this is in almost every country unlimited while geothermal and hydro can have a certain maximum) Terra Watt hour = 10 9 kwh Total Primary Energy Supply, includes all RE and fossil fuels including those used to generate electricity. Also includes traditional biomass. Theoretical Renewable Energy Market Potential, based on the energy demand as a consequence of growth in energy, a market due to the introduction of RE energy and a market due to (the possible) replacement of old energy equipment Watt peak also kwp and MWp. Unit of power generation capacity especially used for photovoltaic systems (solar cells). The energy output depends on the quantity of solar energy on the solar cells. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 3 of 30

4 Preface This report describes the renewable energy (RE) market potential for Cameroon. It is one of 15 reports and prepared under the RECIPES project. For the following countries reports have been drafted: Argentina Cameroon China Brazil Ghana Fiji Islands Colombia Niger India Mexico South Africa Indonesia Peru Uganda Thailand RECIPES is a study into the implementation of renewable energy sources (RES) in emerging and developing countries (EDCs), funded by the European Commission. Main aim of the project is to provide all stakeholders involved with information and insights to be able to contribute to the implementation of renewable energy in emerging and developing countries. More detailed information on the above issues and background information on the methodologies and data used is available at the RECIPES project website This report is produced under the responsibility of the project consortium. The local expert who coordinated the information gathering in Cameroon is Halleson Dureel Nzene (Global Village Cameroon, Cameroon) Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 4 of 30

5 Executive Summary Characteristics of the current energy situation Cameroon is a net energy exporter, but the present energy situation can be described as poor. More than 70% of the energy consumption is derived from traditional biomass. Electricity is mainly (>95%) produced by hydro power plants, although a gas power plant is planned, however, Cameroon has presently not exploited it gas reserves. Present RE status Present RE use (including large hydro) is about 4% of the total primary energy. The RE % will be 18% when traditional biomass is excluded in the total primary energy use. Almost al the RE use is derived from medium and large hydro power. Policy and main energy issues In 1990 Cameroon had a well defined energy policy and National Energy Plan, which integrated all the energy sources. The present laws, however, active since 1998, focus only on the development of hydro electricity. In 2005 the government has affirmed that a New Energy Plan is in the planning process. The production of electricity is an open market in Cameroon, the distribution is not open. The state-owned company responsible for electricity production and distribution was privatised in The government sold 56% of the shares in a 20 year concession. Privatisation has not yet yielded the desired effects of increasing power production and expanding the grid. Private companies and organisations active in the field of smaller RE systems criticise the energy policy: import taxes on equipment is high and bank loans are hard to get. Furthermore projects initiated by foreign organisations encounter difficulties with the management and maintenance in some regions. This leads to an negative attitude towards RE. The Rural Electrification Agency is considered by many interviewees a serious organisation, although their financial possibilities are limited. Their initiative to establish a Cameroon Renewable Energy Fund is regarded a new start for RE in Cameroon. Electrification and rural development Around 60% of the population is not connected to an electricity grid. The national rural electrification plan till recently consists only of grid extension. But the Rural Electrification Agency tries to stimulate the use of nearby available RE sources. Realistic potential RE After defining the main drivers and barriers for the various RE technologies, scenarios for further market implementation were developed. A reference scenario describes the future development of the respective market technology combination if the present situation remains unchanged including the estimated impact of existing policy measures by The scenario described as the maximum scenario leads to the largest RE output per technology by Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 5 of 30

6 Total primary energy supply RE % including large hydro RE % excluding large hydro Electricity RE % including large hydro RE % excluding large hydro Present 2020 Reference scenario Maximum scenario 4.5% 4.8% 7.7% pm <0.01% 0.02% 97% 65% 95% pm <0.01% 0.04% Even a twenty-fold of the existing systems for PV, solar hot water production and mini and micro hydro power, which was calculated under the maximum scenario does not effect the RE contribution in the total energy consumption much. The growth of hydro power (medium and large) can, however, be great. Cameroon has a huge potential for this source, the second in whole Africa. Wind energy and geothermal power are less suitable for Cameroon, biomass and especially the use of waste can after 2015 contribute to the energy need. Including all power capacities for hydro Cameroon can reach a RE contribution of 7.7% in 2020 and if traditional biomass is excluded from the total consumption the RE contribution will be 25%. Underneath figure show the results for the overall energy supply now and in The large amount of traditional biomass is assumed to remain at the present level, due to more efficient use of this source. In the reference scenario the total primary energy use is large than in the maximum scenario due to the use of more fossil energy to full fill the electricity demand. Overview present and future primary energy supply due to the scenarios 8,000 ktoe 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 fossil electricity fossil RE electricity Traditonal biomass reference scenario max scenario Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 6 of 30

7 Steps for stimulating RE policy recommendations Investment is one of the main issues for RE promotion in Cameroon. The government is now stimulating foreign investors but does not stimulate the local smaller RE industry: import tax devices are an severe barrier. This will also be a barrier in the near future for the agro industry in making effectively use of the waste, whether it is considered RE or waste management. Stimulating foreign investors, maybe in combination with the exploitation of the gas reserves have to be carried out professionally and could benefit the RE position of the country. A very important factor for the RE possibilities of Cameroon is a change of attitude of the population. Due to the lack of sufficient experience with successful projects RE is often not regarded as a realistic alternative. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 7 of 30

8 1. Introduction 1.1. The RECIPES project The RECIPES project aims to contribute to the implementation of renewable energy in emerging and developing countries. The RECIPES project is financed under the 6th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development of the European Commission. The main objective of the RECIPES project is to provide the European Commission and other stakeholders with pragmatic recommendations facilitating appropriate action to further the implementation of renewable energy in emerging and developing countries, taking into account: - The effects on the local socio-economic situation. - The competitive position of European renewable energy industry. - The impacts on the local and global environment. Data collection on the situation and potential of renewable energy in emerging and developing countries is the core of the RECIPES project. An identification of the RE market potential is carried out for 15 developing and emerging countries. Local experts gathered data for all of these countries. The results of these in-depth studies will be extrapolated to 99 other developing countries for which data is gathered by desk study. These 99 countries will be categorized on relevant indicators and main regions (Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Americas and the Caribbean) to assess the cumulative total market potential for the entire group of developing countries This document This document contains the results of the RE potential study for Cameroon. The local experts gathered information following the RECIPES questionnaire by means of desk research and contacts (interview, survey) with national stakeholders (policy makers, industry experts, other stakeholders). This information is included in the annexes of this country report. The methodology used for the assessment of the potentials for various market technology combinations is described in the report "Recipes Model and Country studies". A brief summary of the methodology is incorporated in chapter 3.1 of this country report for Cameroon. After this introduction, the following information is presented: Chapter 2: Present and future energy situation Chapter 3: RE potential for various market technology combinations Chapter 4: Realistic total RE potential Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 8 of 30

9 Chapter 5: Key factors for Cameroon to increase RE implementation This report has 5 annexes: Annex A Questionnaire: data provided by the local expert on the present energy situation, the energy policy and the various market-technology combinations (most data in this annex is the final data although some fields are still undergoing final checking and updating). Annex B Energy and policy: a description by the local expert of the national energy policy and the characteristics of the energy supply. Annex C Country maps: these maps contain information on population, (energy) infrastructure, existing RE and available RE sources. Annex D Project description: description of some RE projects by the local expert with emphasis on non-technical experiences and lessons learned. Annex E Scenario tables: these tables provide the full calculations of the scenarios of this Cameroon potential country report Other RECIPES documents On the RECIPES website ( we publish relevant data collected and reports produced. The following information is available on the website: 1. Database with collected data for the 114 emerging and developing countries. The website has reporting tools for extracting this data and comparing countries. 2. Information collected by our experts in the 15 selected countries. This includes the 15 country study reports as well as part A (questionnaire - accessible via the online database), part B (energy and policy) and part D (RE projects) (B and D both available for downloading). Part C (maps) will also be downloadable from the website when developed. Part E (interviews with stakeholders) will remain in a restricted area for privacy reasons. 3. Overall project reports: - Methodology and Model explanation report - Results of 15 country studies including extrapolation to 114 emerging and developing countries - Report on socio-economic aspects, environmental effects and costs / benefits for the EU RE industry of RES in the countries - Comparison of the results of the study with other relevant studies and information sources - Final report and pragmatic recommendations for the implementation of RE in developing countries Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 9 of 30

10 2. Present and future energy situation This section presents an overview of the energy situation in Cameroon as at 2003, and compares it with the energy situation predicted for The figures presented are based on the data collection carried out by our local expert and where relevant we used International Energy Agency figures for a fuller picture. The local expert could not estimate the future energy situation. We have used average growth data to extrapolate to The full questionnaire for Cameroon is available in Annex A Overall present energy situation (2003) In terms of the Energy Development Index, Cameroon ranks in the top lower half of the 114 emerging and developing countries studied in this project with a known index. This index is composed of indicators regarding the commercial energy consumption per capita, the share of commercial energy in the total final energy use and the share of people with access to electricity. Values nearing 1 correspond to modern fuels and good energy structures. The key indicators presented in the table below illustrate the emerging situation of Cameroon, either in terms of consumption or of connection to the grid. Energy Development Index 0.41 Total Primary Energy Supply /capita/year 0.42 toe/capita Electricity consumption/capita/year 230 kwh/capita Percentage of the people connected to the electricity grid 40 % Percentage of RE in total consumption based on primary 4 % energy use (incl traditional biomass) Tab. 1.: Key Energy indicators Cameroon produces some oil and petroleum products (94000 bbl/day), of which they consume 30%. The national refining company was operating as a monopoly but due to the liberalization the market is now open. A decreasing surtax on imported refined products leave the company time to adjust to the international competition. Natural gas resources are still unexploited, but the national operator of energy plans to construct a gas power station of 150 MW n the following years. Yearly use Yearly production Oil 1170k Ktoe 5000 Ktoe Gas 0 0 Coal 0 0 Tab. 2.: Fossil fuel use and production Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 10 of 30

11 The estimated reserves are presented below. Yearly use Estimated Reserves Oil 8.03million barrels 400 million barrels Gas 0 billion m billion m 3 Coal 0 billion short ton unknown Tab. 3.: Fossil fuels use and estimated reserves Distribution of the energy sources Cameroon does not incorporate the use of traditional biomass in her energy balance however estimations by the IEA and other organisations, show a 70% share of the total energy consumption. This seems to increase to 80% when including the use of waste. The remaining energy is derived from petroleum products and hydropower. Energy use sources Oil (18%) RE (4%) (traditonal) biomass (78%) Fig.1: Distribution of energy sources used in Cameroon Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 11 of 30

12 Energy consumption for various sectors Energy consumption for the residential sector is about 70% of the total energy consumption, see figure 5. This is high compared with other developing and emerging countries, an effect created by comparatively limited industrialization in Cameroon. Energy consumption for the different sectors other purposes (1%) industry (17%) transportation (11%) agriculture (0%) residential (71%) commercial and public services (1%) Fig.2: Total Energy Consumption by various users The state-owned company responsible for electricity production and distribution was privatised in The government sold 56% of the share in a 20 year concession. Privatisation has not yet yielded the desired effects of increasing power production and expanding the grid. Electricity use others (22%) industry (44%) residential (18%) commercial and public services (15%) Fig.3: Electricity consumption by various users Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 12 of 30

13 2.2. Expected energy situation (2020) Like most of the countries throughout the RECIPES project we use 2020 as time horizon for the scenario calculation. The RECIPES local expert delivered some numbers for 2010, 2020 and some for We extrapolate these numbers to The average yearly growth for the total energy demand and the electricity production is 4%. We assume the use of traditional biomass will not grow. Total growth Annual growth Population 75 % 3.4 % Income per capita 130% 5 % Primary Energy Consumption 75 % excl. biomass 4 % 16 % incl. biomass Electricity Consumption 75 % 4 % Tab. 4: Expected growth up until 2020 In 1990 Cameroon has had a well defined energy policy and National Energy Plan, which integrated all the energy sources. The present laws however, active since 1998, focus only on the development of hydro electricity. The government has, in 2005, affirmed that a New Energy Plan is in the planning process, it will focus on the development of the economy by Cameroon does not have an overall RE target for total primary energy use in any year. Some interviewees agreed that Cameroon does not have a RE problem but an Energy problem to be solved which gives us some insight into local feeling on the ground. Cameroon has planned the following projects concerning new electricity power plants: - New natural gas power plants 250 MW - New hydro power plants 500 MW - New oil plants 80 MW Most of the new planned hydro is large hydro (>50 MW), it is not sure however in what time frame alle these plans will be realised. China will grant, within a framework of cooperation, 40 million Euros to finance the construction of three hydro plants. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 13 of 30

14 The figure below presents the distribution of energy consumption in 2003 and 2020, identifying fossil fuels and RE for various purposes. Large hydro (existing and planned) is included in RE electricity in this figure. The use of traditional biomass and waste (5300 ktoe) is not shown in this figure because the great amount would make the other sources too difficult to distinguish. Overview present and plans for future energy supply in Cameroon 8,000 Ktoe 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 fossil electricity fossil RE electricity Traditonal biomass Fig.4: Present and future energy consumption excluding traditional biomass Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 14 of 30

15 2.2.1.Overview of electricity consumption for 2020 Electricity consumption in Cameroon will increase to approximately 7 TWh by This is an extrapolation of the electricity consumption of 2003 and the expected energy growth as explained in paragraph 2.2. Present and future primary energy use for electricity consumption TWh planned hydro large renewable, including existing large hydro fossil Fig.5: Primary energy used for the electricity consumption and the RE part Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 15 of 30

16 3. RE potential for various market technology combinations 3.1. Methodology used for the RE potential assessment Based on the data collected by the local expert we calculated the RE potential for different market technology combinations. The full set of data used for this country study is provided in the Annex A of this report. A detailed description of the methodology used is available on our website This paragraph describes the methodology used in short. For each country, the market potential for all the relevant market technology combinations is calculated. The methodology consists of 3 steps: - Description of the present market situation - Estimation of Theoretical RE Market Potential (TREMP) - Estimation of the realistic RE Market Potential (REMP) TREMP: Theoretical Renewable Energy Market Potential, based on the energy demand as a consequence of growth in energy, a market due to the introduction of RE energy and a market due to (the possible) replacement of old energy equipment REMP: Market Potential; the amount of renewable energy which, given all possible restrictions (practical, economical, juridical, etc.) is likely to be produced. For each relevant market technology combination we have calculated the REMP for up to 4 different scenarios. These scenario s are developed based on the most relevant drivers and barriers; factors influencing the market potential Current market situation The existing market for a specific renewable energy technology is an important factor how the market is able to develop. We describe the existing market asking ourselves the question: why is this RE-technology implemented in the present quantity? To answer this question we looked at 9 decisive factors or market aspects (see next table). Based on the information gathered by our local country experts we described these. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 16 of 30

17 Attitude decision maker Possibilities decision maker Surroundings Decision Factor or market aspects Cost-effectiveness Reliance (security of supply/availability?) (present and future) Direct advantages (time, health, poverty reduction) Finance availability Knowledge, Skills Practical realisation Energy Policy International policy Other policy (industry, health, poverty) Theoretical maximum RE Market Potential (TREMP) The TREMP is calculated for each market-technology combination and depends mostly on the market. Some examples: TREMP for wind energy is the total electricity demand. This TREMP could be higher if the extra electricity production is used to produce hydrogen, which then can be exploited for other purposes like transport. These future markets are not taken into account. The TREMP for solar water heaters is based on the hot water demand. For every market technology combination there are some restrictions, due to the environmental possibilities (e.g. for solar water, is there enough space for the technology near or on the dwellings in a city) Future market: RE Market Potential (REMP) We aim here to describe a realistic development of the RE-market and a quantification of this market, called REMP. This realistic Renewable Energy Market potential is, given all possible restrictions and stimuli, the most likely market potential. The REMP will vary due to various drivers and barriers; we will use scenarios to show the different possible results. The 9 decision factors, which are used for analysing the existing market situation, are clustered into 6 market drivers. In our view these 6 drivers contain all important variable influence factors: - cost-effectiveness - finance availability - industry and knowledge/skills - direct energy policy - other policy (industry, health, foreign investment, liberalisation) - awareness, attitude Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 17 of 30

18 Above market drivers can also interact. For example; an energy policy that is implemented with fiscal incentives can positively influence the costeffectiveness of a RE technology. In order to clarify what is meant by the change of a market driver, specific descriptions will be provided. The effect, in terms of increased market potential for a market-technology combination, for each driver will be different. But also for different markettechnology combinations each driver has a different effect. For the most relevant drivers the effects in market potential are calculated Scenarios We have developed up to 4 different scenarios for each market technology combination. These scenario s can be different for each market technology combination and combine the market drivers that were anticipated to be a key in the development of the respective market. Sensitivity analyses for changes in the drivers and changes of the combinations of drivers are also carried out. The different scenarios lead to ranges in REMP. These scenarios are not necessarily the same for each market technology combination since the drivers for the ALL market technology combinations vary, there will be different scenarios for each combination. These scenarios will be described in the respective paragraphs. For each market technology we will assess the effect of a reference scenario. This reference scenario describes the future development of the respective market technology combination if the present situation remains unchanged including the estimated impact of existing policy measures. The only changes that are included are: - National income growth; - Global energy cost increase (expected); - Global price decrease of some RE technologies (expected). Notes: - Since mid 2005 there is no consensus about the expected increase of energy cost. The impact of high energy cost on cost-effectiveness of renewable energy will of course be high. However the influence on finance availability in developing countries will mostly be negative. Because this study does not consider oil price scenarios it is not taken into account that the energy prices will remain at the high level of end 2005 and rise from there. For each market technology combination we present up to 4 scenarios. The estimated RE annual growth rate is the key parameter influencing the REMP. Figure 6 presents several theoretical growth curves and also shows examples of possible changes in the linear curves in order to give an impression of the outcome of the calculations. The curves of the various scenarios will be located between the horizontal curve (which means no new installations so an annual growth rate of zero) and the exponential curve (which is the maximum for this technology in this country). Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 18 of 30

19 TREMP change due to change in market drivers or reaching absolute number/year REMP absolute growth in a period positive change due to change in market drivers existing capacity/number negative change due to change in market drivers or reaching target change in market drivers present 2020 Fig.6.: Curves of the market growth The RE annual growth rate of a technology is estimated on the basis of the market drivers (as mentioned above) but also takes into account the existing capacity/numbers. The estimated RE market growth is not unlimited; the maximum annual growth each year depends on the situation of each technology in question. Key factors are the existing market volume and the experience built up. In general the annual market growth is below 50% with extremes up to % of the existing capacity. The growth of the installed capacity compared with a previous year is also restricted due to the characteristics of the technology, the infrastructure of the country, the availability of knowledge and labour etc. The maximum annual absolute growth in MW or numbers of installations in a year depends on technology, the country size and the availability of hardware. A growth rate can increase by a positive change in one of the market drivers. On the other hand, a reduction of the growth rate can also occur, e.g. if: a policy target is reached; the TREMP (theoretical maximum ) is reached; a negative change in one of the market drivers occurs; the maximum absolute growth each year is reached. For almost all the 15 countries of the in depth Recipe study we have defined, for each market technology combination, 2 to 4 scenarios that are relevant for the country. But in Cameroon only a few market technology combinations are present today and the barriers and drivers are almost the same for each of these combinations. So we do not describe the present situation the future drivers and barriers for each market technology combination separately. The main report of this country study presents the overall figures along with the basic assumptions. Annex E contains the full calculation details including numbers of installed new capacity, the yearly annual growth of the new capacity, the total capacity and the market growth. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 19 of 30

20 3.2. Characteristics of the present situation The following RE technologies are currently not implemented in Cameroon - Wind turbines - Geothermal energy for heat and/or electricity production - Electricity production from biomass - Ethanol or biodiesel for transport Cameroon has some PV systems, solar thermal installations for hot water preparation and small hydro. It is used and installed by individuals, some communities and foreign organisations. Information on quantity, cost and energy produced is not available. Market aspect Costeffectiveness Finance availability Knowledge, Skills Comments on past and present situation Compared to grid extension many RE technologies for producing electricity are more cost effective than grid expansion with new fossil fuelled energy power plants. - There are very little funds available to invest in RE. Banks are not willingly to lend money for this purpose, RE technologies are not regarded as a goal for micro credits. - Some projects for rural energy (mostly PV) are financed by the World Bank and other organisations. People who can afford maintenance costs can acquire an installation. - The energy company EAS-SONEL does not invest in RE - China will grant 40 million euro to Cameroon in order to realize three hydro installations and invest in these installations as well - Last year the National Investment Company, EXCO American Company of Investment and the Rural Electrification Agency began working to create a Cameroon Renewable Energy Fund. This fund will not only focus on fundraising but also on developing expertise to start and maintain projects. - Since the new national energy plan form 2005 Cameroonian businessmen are more interested in Re development projects and osm are carrying out studies on small RE projects. - Basic knowledge and maintenance skills are available, the opportunities for organising small maintenance bases in rural communities are limited. - Private Cameroon operators active in RE, do not profit from any subsidy, international co-operation or bilateral funding. Most projects are carried out by large foreign firms (American, German, Japanese and Southern Africa) - Plan are on the way to rehabilitate old small and medium size hydro plans that supplied electricity to southern Cameroon more than 50 years ago but have not been maintained. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 20 of 30

21 Energy Policy Other Policy (industry, health, poverty) Direct advantages (time, health, poverty reduction,) Reliance (present and future) Practical realisation International Policy Attitude - There is at present no national programme to promote the realisation of renewable energy. - The Rural Electrification Agency concentrates on RE and is regarded as a serious, credible agency by the interviewees, but their budget is very low. - The Ministry of Water and Energy has been interested and active in attracting foreign investors to help solve the energy problem since Electricity production is free, the distribution is monopolised. Tax on imported equipment is very high: up to 30% In case people are not grid connected, direct advantages on health, education, poverty reduction can occur. A project to collect waste in some cities carried out by the government and a Spanish company is planned to be realised by It will not only produce energy, but also produce fertilizer and create jobs. Some RE project in the past were not managed and maintained well. No barriers were mentioned although the lack of constant water may become a serious barrier for hydro potential Cameroon is interested in realising CDM projects but has no money available to start these projects Due to past failures of RE projects, the people s attitude is not positive, the communities prefer to wait until they are on the list to become grid connected than to start activities to use the available energy (hydro, sun). Due to liberalisation the communities are entitled to produce electricity Theoretical renewable market potential TREMP Cameroon has a great potential for hydro energy; the second highest in Africa. A study calculating the potential show 10 TWh electricity could be generated with medium and large hydro. At present 30% of that potential is being used. An ambition is formulated to generate 8,2 TWh in 2030, but it is not a firm government target. The potential of solar energy is also, naturally, very large. There is no information available on the possibilities for wind and geothermal energy. Although there are possibilities for this last source, the possible capacity is unknown. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 21 of 30

22 3.4. Future drivers and barriers The table below presents the relevant market drivers and barriers that we will use to define the scenarios. Market aspects Costeffectiveness Finance availability Knowledge, Skills Energy Policy Other policy Awareness Future drivers and barriers In non-grid connected situations, implementation costs other than equipment, installing and maintenance (such as training, organising loans, etc.) can be substantial but are mostly not calculated into cost-effectiveness. So the total cost for installing will remain high, even if the cost of this technology declines. No specific scenario is assessed for this market aspect. Finance availability is crucial for Cameroon to increase the use of RE. Investors are only interested if they can be sure that the energy produced will be consumed and paid for. The lack of industry and the poor financial situation of the majority creates a deadlock. Smaller units which do not require large consumers may dissolve this problem. The activities started by the Rural Energy Agency could lead to more investments in RE. Lack of knowledge and skills to maintain this technology are considered a risk. Education and instructions to local managers, technicians and users will have a positive effect on the attitude to this technology in the long term. No scenario based upon this market aspect because it is essential for all the other scenarios Cameroon has a gas reserve yet not exploited but will need foreign companies to exploit this source. This of course can generate income for Cameroon to spend on development, but good contracts (better than the ones used by selling the stated owned energy company) could include RE projects both in cities and rural areas. Other policies (laws without finance to implement them) are not likely to be effective. Especially because the electricity producer/ distributor (with the 20 year concession) has to make the present energy delivery reliable and even in the cities services are often poor. Local industry can be supported by the government (less tax devices) special loans, support the production of small RE systems (sun, biomass, furnace etc) The present attitude of most people (RE is not considered a serious option) can only be changed by good projects. Good projects must deliver a reliable quantity of energy over a longer period, so management, clear responsibility and maintenance activities are crucial See scenario Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 22 of 30

23 3.5. Renewable energy market potential REMP Based on the described future market drivers and barriers we consider the following scenarios relevant for Cameroon. The various scenarios will not have the same effect for the different RE markettechnology combinations, so we will briefly describe these effects. Because the highest RE potential in Cameroon comes from sun, hydro and biomass we assume there is no influence on the use of wind energy and geothermal energy. These technologies could only be implemented after 2015, the same assumption is made for ethanol and bio diesel for transport energy. Although large hydro is not considered a RE technology in this Recipes project, we calculated the effect of it for Cameroon. We did this for several reasons; 1) this technology is of great importance for Cameroon, 2) they have plans and a target set,. The relevant scenarios 1. Reference situation This scenario is based upon the plans within established contracts. - hydro; the planned hydro (500 MW) will be installed for 50% - PV remains on the current low level with few projects in rural areas - solar thermal will remain on the present level (projects, hospitals etc) - biomass and the use of waste will only be used if the agro industry grows, the technology will be used on a small scale after the planned use of waste from cities will be realised in 2012 and will not be implemented further because good practice has to be proven first. 2. Finance availability In this scenario we assume that the plans to attract foreign investors will be effective. - hydro; the planned hydro will be installed by 2020, - Micro and mini hydro capacity will grow by 6% annually - PV will be implemented on a lager scale by individuals not connected to the grid, after 2012 it will also be implemented on a small scale for communities to produce electricity for other purposes than light and communication - solar thermal will remain on the present level (projects, hospitals etc.) - biomass and the use of waste will only be used if the agro industry grows, the technology will be used on a small scale after the planned use of waste from cities will be realized in 2012 and will not be implemented further because good practice has to be proven first. 3. Strong policy This scenario is based upon two effects of a change in policy. Firstly, a support of the local RE industry (i.e. tax devices) will stimulate the implementation of smaller RE systems. The second effect will occur when exploration of the fossil energy reserves of Cameroon will be connected with RE projects. We assume this will happen after Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 23 of 30

24 - hydro; the planned hydro will be installed in 2012, after that year the annual growth will be 4% - micro and mini hydro capacity will grow steadily till a market growth of 40% annually is reached in PV will be implemented on a lager scale by individuals not connected to the grid - a thermal solar market will be established, not only in special projects (like hospitals) but also for a small consumer market for people who can afford it - biomass and the use of waste will only be used if the agro industry increases, the technology will be used on a small scale after the planned use of waste from cities will be realised in 2012 and will not be implemented further because good practice has to be proven first. 4. Awareness In this scenario we combine the energy police scenario with a change in the attitude. We assume the present passive and slightly negative attitude towards RE will change to a more positive one, due to good results of projects and support to local communities to establish their own basic energy production instead of waiting till they get connected to the national electricity grid. It will, however, not lead to a explosive growth of RE contribution but be part of the economic development of rural areas. Results of the scenarios The results of the scenarios for the most relevant market technologies combinations are shown below and the growth curves are presented in the figures. Reference Finance availability Strong policy Awareness Equipments Solar heat systems m PV systems KWp Hydro power mini and micro KW Medium and large hydro MW Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 24 of 30

25 solar thermal m Reference Finance availability Strong policy Awareness Fig 7: Growth of the solar market Reference scenario and finance availability scenario have the same result micro and mini hydro kw Reference scenario Finance availability Strong policy Awareness Fig 8. Growth of the micro and mini hydro market Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 25 of 30

26 medium and large hydro 1250 MW Reference scenario Other scenarios Fig 9: Growth of the medium and large hydro market Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 26 of 30

27 4. Realistic total RE potential Cameroon has the intention to use more RE. The emphasis will be on medium and large hydro but the aim of the Cameroon Renewable Fund is to stimulate the growth of smaller RE systems, including systems for households and rural communities, as well. But which targets and ambitions will be realistic? In the previous chapter we looked at the potential of the various market technology combinations and at their possible market growth identifying the impact of various drivers and barriers. In this chapter we sum up the estimates for the market technology combinations and show the overall picture. To this purpose we have calculated the lower and upper boundaries of the total RE use, as follows: Lower boundary: direct summation of the realistic minimum in 2020 i.e. the reference scenario. Upper boundary: direct summation of the maximum scenario in 2020 based on the most effective scenario. The results are presented in figure 10 and table 5. RE heat is too small to be visible. Overview present and future primary energy supply due to the scenarios 8,000 ktoe 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 fossil electricity fossil RE electricity Traditonal biomass reference scenario max scenario Fig.10.: Energy consumption now and in the present according to the various scenarios Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 27 of 30

28 Reference scenario Maximum scenario Total ktoe Fossil not for electricity ktoe Traditional biomass Energy for electricity ktoe (fossil and import) RE heat ktoe - pm pm RE for electricity incl ktoe large hydro RE % 0.0 <0.1% <0.1% RE incl. large hydro % Re incl. all hydro in relation to total energy % consumption excl trad biomass Table 5.: Energy consumption now and in the present according to the various scenarios The reference scenarios Under the reference scenarios the absolute RE production will increase with 30% between 2003 and The RE contribution to total primary energy use will be 5.0% compared to 4.5% currently. Important comments:. Included is growth through RE from medium and large hydro, the already planned 256 MW and municipal solid treatment. Normally only existing large hydro is included in the RE total for countries, and possible new large hydro is not included for the numbers in the future. However, because Cameroon has already planned a capacity increase, we have added this to the future numbers. This is not entirely in line with other RE potential studies. Situation if new targets are set or market drivers develop positively. If new targets are set or market drivers change in a positive way, the RE market will be higher than we calculated for the reference scenarios. For example the use of agro waste in small and medium industries can, when Cameroon is developing this industry, contribute to the energy production. The maximum scenarios Under the maximum scenarios the absolute use of RE will increase more than 200% between 2003 and That is not very high compared with other countries, where this growth can reach more than 300% not including large hydro. The growth for the smaller system, however, can reach these percentages. Some expert in Cameroon are rather optimistic in reaching this large hydro target, if it is real achieved the growth of the electricity consumption may well be higher than the estimated 4% yearly. So the % figures on RE electricity contribution assessed in this study will be lower. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 28 of 30

29 Under the maximum scenarios, electricity for the national grid by RE sources (including large hydro) will be 95% of the electricity consumption, in the reference scenario it will be 65%. Most of it is due to existing hydro power plants and new planned medium and large hydro power plants. Besides medium and large hydro the other contributors of the RE electricity production are relative small Wind, PV and solar thermal are very small. The great variety in the installed capacity of micro and mini hydro and of PV as a result of the scenarios, does not effect the total RE-electricity production very much. However, the socio-economic impact of these systems can be very positive. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 29 of 30

30 5. Key factors for Cameroon to increase RE implementation Cameroon has not set any goals to increase RE implementation, only the increased use of hydro power is planned. Cameroon's energy policy focuses on reliable electricity delivery in the urban regions and electrification of the rural areas. The main problem in Cameroon is the lack of finance availability and the limited interest of potential investors due to the lack of industry and the limited finances of most of the people, which do not guarantee these investors it will have a profitable investment. However, Cameroon has some unexploited gas reserves that can be a driver for new investors like China. For the smaller RE systems Cameroon can stimulate the market by new tax devices and bank loans for the local industry. This industry can serve the individuals and communities who can afford the investment, especially if RE loans are introduced. It will be a niche market at first but it can be a start for the market. Cameroon does not have programmes or targets for the use of non-traditional biomass, although a project for city waste will be implemented with foreign industry and finance. Non-traditional biomass, whether it is considered RE or waste management, could be used much more by agro industry for electricity and heat production if this industry is developed more. The most important factor for Cameroon is a change of attitude of the people and community leaders regarding RE. RE technologies and equipment for efficient use of biomass is often not considered an alternative, people wait till their region is in turn for grid connection. So good projects, well managed and maintained and combined with the development of rural economic activities are a key factor for future implementation. The role of the Rural Electrification Agency and the new founded Renewable Energy Fund will be crucial in the near future. Renewable Energy Potential - Country Report Cameroon Page 30 of 30