Energía nuclar para el siglo XXI 18 y 19 de junio de 2007 UIMP, Santander European Electricity Markets: Current Trends and Outlook ENERGY MARKET EXPERIENCE François Nguyen Senior Policy Advisor International Energy Agency Paris - France OECD/IEA - 2007
Outline Global Energy Context European Electricity Markets- and s Role of Nuclear Summing up
Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand Mtoe 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 Other renewables Nuclear Biomass Gas Coal Oil 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Global demand grows by more than half over the next 25 years, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
Will the Come? Cumulative in Energy-Supply Infrastructure, 2005-2030 = $20.2 trillion (in $2005) Exploration & development Refining Other 73% 18% 9% Biofuels 1% Oil 21% Gas 19% $4.3 trillion $3.9 trillion $0.6 trillion $11.3 trillion Electricity 56% Coal 3% 56 % of total energy investment go to the power generation, transmission and distribution
World Oil Production Shifts Away from OECD 2.2 mb/d 10.2 mb/d 13.5 mb/d 30.9 mb/d 20.2 mb/d OECD MENA Other NCO 41.2 mb/d 50.5 mb/d OECD MENA Other NCO 29.0 mb/d 2004 (82.1 mb/d) 2030 (115.4 mb/d) OECD share falls from 24.6% to 11.7%
World Gas Production Also Shifts Away from OECD OECD North America OECD Pacific OECD Europe Transition economies Developing Asia Latin America Middle East North Africa Other Africa 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 bcm 2003 2010 2020 2030 Natural gas production will grow most strongly in the Middle East and transition economies
Reference Scenario: World Inter-regional Natural Gas Trade 1 000 800 600 bcm 400 200 0 2004 2010 2015 2020 2030 Pipelines LNG Global gas trade doubles, with two-thirds of the increase coming from Russia, the Middle East & North Africa mostly as LNG
Annual Variations in Coal Demand 500 400 million tonnes 300 200 100 0-100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 China Rest of the world Global coal demand in recent years has grown much faster than previously mainly driven by China
Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region 2003 2030 China 16% India 4% Other 11% MENA 6% India 6% Other 16% MENA 8% China 19% Transition economies 11% 24 Gt OECD 52% Transition economies 9% 37 Gt OECD 42% Global emissions grow by just over half between now and 2030, mostly coming from developing countries
On the global context... The world is facing twin energy threats Inadequate & insecure supplies Environmental damage, including climate change There is an urgent need to curb the growth in fossilfuel demand & related emissions WEO-2006 is a direct response to G8 request for advice on alternative energy scenarios It confirms that the global energy system is on an unsustainable path on current trends but measures now being considered would curb the growth of fossil-fuel demand & emissions
The Alternative Policy Scenario : Key Policies that Make a Global Difference Energy efficiency generation US EU China Tighter CAFE standards Improved efficiency in residential & commercial sectors Increased vehicle fuel economy Improved efficiency in electricity use in the commercial sector Improved efficiency in electricity use in industry Improved efficiency in electricity use in the residential sector Increased use of renewables Increased use of renewables Extended use of nuclear Increased efficiency of coal-fired plants Increased use of renewables Increased reliance on nuclear A dozen policies in the US, EU & China account for around 40% of the global emission reduction in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario
42 The Alternative Policy Scenario: Global CO 2 Emissions Reduction Gt of CO 2 38 34 Reference Scenario Increased nuclear (10%) Increased renewables (12%) sector efficiency & fuel (13%) Electricity end-use efficiency (29%) Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%) 30 Alternative Policy Scenario 26 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Improved end-use efficiency accounts for two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030 in APS
OECD Europe Trends
Spain-Electricity
Growing EU Gas Import Requirements (2004-2030) 800 600-90 bcm bcm 400 200-46 bcm - 33 bcm 0 United States European Union Japan 2004 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario 2030 Gas imports in the main consuming regions are significantly lower in the APS compared with the RS
European power plants are ageing Installed capacity in OECD Europe Total capacity 784 GW Sources: IEA statistics and Platts, 2006 More than 30 years old 160 GW (20%) Coal 100 GW Oil 32 GW Gas 18 GW Nuclear 10 GW Age of existing plants, technological development, tighter environmental controls, and nuclear phase out policies drive the need for replacements
accounts for nearly half of total electricity investments Distribution USD 4.2 trillion Transmission USD 1.8 trillion USD 5.2 trillion Non-OECD USD 2.9 trillion OECD North America USD 1.0 trillion OECD Europe USD 1.0 trillion OECD Asia&Pacific USD 0.3 trillion
Gas & wind dominate but coal is coming back GW 100 Changes in installed capacity in OECD Europe 80 60 40 20 0-20 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2004 Construction Planned 2005-2010 2005-2015 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Other Renewables Sources: IEA statistics and Platts, 2006
EU - Projected primary fuel mix WEO 2006: Scenarios for primary fuel mix in EU 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004 Reference Scenario APS in 2030 in 2030 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables In WEO 2006 alternative policy scenario (APS) nuclear power remain at 1990 levels but share is still falling.
sector CO 2 emissions & Shares of nuclear and renewables (2004) Along with energy efficiency & renewables, nuclear power can help lower CO 2 emissions
Renewed interest in nuclear, with larger potential outside Europe USA: New Energy Act - Tax credit - Loan guarantee - Insurance for regulatory delay UK: Facilitating new-build France: Replacement of nuclear park Finland: First EU new-build Europe: Nuclear policies differ India: From 4 to 40 GW by 2030 Russia: Increase share of nuclear China: From 8 to 40 GW by 2020 Japan: Increase high nuclear share Korea, Canada, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa
Uranium resources are abundant and well dispersed Identified conventional uranium resources, recoverable below USD 130 kgu 30 other countries, 32.7% Australia, 23.1% Kazakstan, 18.5% United States, 7.5% South Africa, 8.6% Canada, 9.6% Source: NEA Discovered uranium resources can meet current annual requirement for 46 years. New discoveries have kept this ratio relatively constant since the mid 1980s.
Cost competitiveness of nuclear, coal and CCGT varies under different assumptions of fuel prices
Impact of a 50% Increase in Fuel Prices on Generating Costs 40% increase in generating cost 30% 20% 10% 0% Nuclear IGCC Coal steam CCGT
We have an opportunity now, through investments,..to implement more efficient and cleaner generation technologies Capacity investments today will be locked in for up to 60 years Timely and adequate investments are essential to ensure generation adequacy But investors need firm policy signals Credible, long-term, market-based support mechanisms for clean technologies
Diversification contributes to security of supply Current trends indicate increasing use of natural gas and renewable in European generation mix Coal is coming back in some markets but faces environmental concerns Nuclear can be competitive, while reducing dependence on natural gas imports and contributing to CO2 reduction There is no silver bullet Governments should keep all options open and avoid picking winning technologies
Thank you for your attention! Contact: francois.nguyen@iea.org IEA website: www.iea.org IEA Online Bookshop: www.iea.org/books