I trend odierni nei mercati oil & gas

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1 Daslav Brkic Vice President Business Development BU Engineering and Construction Saipem San Donato M.se, 15 maggio 2012 P120515

2 Big Challenges, Big Opportunities We will need courage, energy, vision 2

3 ... as well as flexibility in front of unexpected and sudden market changes 3

4 The energy markets continue to face unprecedented uncertainties Global economic growth Broader access to energy and rapid growth demand in developing world Overall investment climate, financing and funds accessibility The end of cheap oil & gas opens new reserves and new possibilities Political and geopolitical uncertainties Local and regional relationships Definition of public policies Golden prospects for natural gas Renewables pushed towards center stage Evolving permitting scenarios Right-sizing of nuclear power growth Transformative markets offer major new opportunities and challenges 4

5 Most future growth in energy demand to come from developing countries Mbpsd Energy demand in developed economies flat, evolving mix towards less oil and coal, more gas and renewables Enhanced relocation of oil & gas markets towards the developing world Source: EIA STEO Courtesy of Douglas-Westwood 5

6 World Primary Energy Demand By Fuel % Average + 42 Source: IEA World Primary Energy Outlook New Policies Scenario A somewhat more optimistic forecast vs

7 Worldwide E&P Spending Forecast 90% of new industry investments in upstream and midstream Major investment areas: Source: Company data and Barclays Capital estimates (June 2011) Australia West Africa East Africa Brazil Russia Canada, Alaska - gas from the North Arctic -gas, LNG - offshore, deepwater, onshore - Mozambique offshore - offshore, deepwater - gas (Yamal, South Stream, Shtokman?) - new round of exploration and discoveries New markets often need new solutions 7

8 Offshore Oil & Gas Production: Key for the past, key for the future Most oil & gas production growth to come from unconventional sources Only temporary slowdown after the "Deepwater Horizon" accident. More stringent regulations, permitting and controls, more sophisticated technologies Offshore, major trends towards deepwater Arctic next 8

9 Deepwater Expenditure 210 B $ Major investments, mostly in South Atlantic: GoM W.Africa Brazil Subsea completions and pipelines to dominate Most investments from top players (68% of Deepwater Investment Forecast) Source : Infield Systems Ltd.,

10 Consolidation and growth of a major new offshore industy Floating production and FLNG Emergence of Floating LNG 10

11 Are we entering a "Golden Age" of Gas? From glut to boom World primary energy demand by fuel, 2009 and 2035 (Mtoe) Source : IEA World Energy Outlook New Policies Scenario All forecasts agree that gas utilization growth might outpace other energy sources 11

12 Gas Utilization Growth: Many Drivers Lower price than oil Clean, efficent fuel lower emissions Newly found reserves worldwide, conventional and unconventional Technological breakthroughs and "Learning Curve" lower exploitation costs Unconventional gas Source : Eni Creation of an efficient and partially integrated worldwide distibution network LNG Pipelines Liberalization of some markets 12

13 Shale Gas Exploitation: Major Changes in the Supply Chain Large number of small wells Small localized fields require quick exploitation A degree of installation mobility after field exhaustion Gas collection challenge 13

14 Proved recoverable natural gas resources (bcm) 14

15 Gas-to-market over ever longer distances Source: IEA (2010) 15

16 by pipeline and LNG Source: IEA (2010) 16

17 One example: Australia Major LNG boom for Japanese, Chinese and other Asia Pacific markets Unconventional gas sources Critical issue is building appropriate infrastructure Remote locations, shortage of resources, rising costs 17

18 Geopolitics: A major factor for new gas supplies Arctic Area Boundaries Relationship Russia and Ucraine Investment limitations Caspian status Israel/M.E. Pakistan and India relationship Political instability Risk: Hormuz straight closure Bolivia and Mercosur countries relationships Reserve ownership or exploitation disputes Transit problems Choke points and pirate risk 18

19 Evolution of international gas trade Trade via pipeline and LNG (bcm) (bcm) 2011 Fonte: analisi su dati Cedigaz GNL 19

20 European (UE 27) gas market prospects (bcm) 65,6% 77,7 % production decrease by over 40 bcm UK: -21 bcm Netherlands: -18 bcm Germany: -6 bcm Shale gas contribution uncertain Imports needed, in competition from Imports Russia Norway North Africa Caspian and Middle East LNG Fonte: WM Import dependancy 20

21 Gas Imports into Europe European Gas Import Infrastructure Gas Pipelines Capacity Russia 200 bcm through Ucraine Bielorussia Offshore 150 bcm from Norway 4 gas pipelines from North Africa to Europe for about 70 bcm Regas Terminals 170 bcm capacity Spain (63,6 bcm/a) France (22,8 bcm/a) UK (52,1 bcm/a) Gasdotti dalla Russia Gasdotti dal Nord Africa Gasdotti dalla Norvegia Terminali di rigassificazione 21

22 Some new projects: policy of supply differentiation New projects under development UE Objectives New strategic suppliers Caspian area Iraq East Mediterranean Support to new infrastructure Interconnection between various markets Imports (Southern Corridor) New dimension of energy foreign policy 22

23 A major policy component: transit areas Le aree di transito per il gas extra UE Area di transito del gas russo Area di transito del gas algerino Area di transito del gas caspico e mediorientale 23

24 Conclusions - Upstream Oil & Gas Production In spite of current economic difficulties in developed countries, the overall investment prospects are optimistic Key drivers are: The developing countries thirst for energy and products Tight current supplies Gas demand growth to outpace oil and coal Continuing moves towards developing more expensive oil and gas sources: Offshore deepwater, Arctic More distant and less accessible onshore (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, etc.) Unconventional tight gas, shale gas, coal seam gas, Geopolitics to play a major role in route and project definition Highly transformative markets: new fields, new geographies, new technologies, new concepts, new players High, higher uncertainties remain throughout most markets Big Challenges, Big Opportunities We will need courage, energy, vision 24