GDF SUEZ. Introduction. Jean-François Cirelli

Transcription

1 GDF SUEZ Introduction Jean-François Cirelli

2 Content 1. Focus on gas market dynamics 2. Focus on electricity market dynamics 3. Focus on P&L resilience and sensitivities 4. Focus on synergies and performance plan Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

3 Focus on gas market dynamics Short term balance between supply and demand in Europe Availability of natural gas in Europe Impact of macro economic conditions New LNG regas capacity in 2009 to replace decline in indigenous production No new gas pipe before 2012 at the earliest Gas prices Mostly driven by long term oil price indexed contracts (> 90% outside UK) Increased share of non oil price indexed volumes due to new LNG in (notably spot Qatari gas) Beyond 2012, LNG growth hampered by lack of new liquefaction capacity winter prices Mostly driven by weather conditions /MWh 40,00 35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 Gas prices on various markets European LT NBP Henry Hub Asian max LNG déc-08 janv-09 févr-09 mars-09 avr-09 mai-09 juin-09 Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

4 Focus on gas market dynamics Increased role for LNG worldwide LNG: main driver of gas markets globalization Since 2000, LNG trade growing faster than overall gas production Increasing share of short term deals in LNG trade, from 12% in 2005 to 20% in 2007 Regionally formed gas prices but increasingly coupled through LNG Current imperfect liquidity offers continuing arbitrage opportunities Bcm Global gas production growth + 6 % + 2 % World LNG supply Source: IEA - World Energy Outlook 2006 World pipe gas supply LNG price drivers in different markets In the US: softer market prices will slow down the production of unconventional gas, maintaining LNG imports in the medium term In Asia: nuclear power outages in Japan are the main drivers for LNG imports In Europe: decrease in indigenous production, no new pipe, new LNG Spot and Short Term LNG Imports over the last 10 years Source: GIIGNL 2007 Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

5 Focus on gas market dynamics Medium and long-term: a tight gas supply-demand balance Growing gas demand driven by gas-fired power generation in spite of energy savings, nuclear renewal and renewable energy development in developed countries Lack of new gas developments of significant size in the medium term In Mtoe Gas supply/demand in Europe Total demand Additional needs to cover Development of internal markets in many gas exporting countries An increased competition for new resources (Europe, Asia, North America) Gas supply already contracted Indigenous gas production Source Eurogas - Sept. 07 Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

6 Content 1. Focus on gas market dynamics 2. Focus on electricity market dynamics 3. Focus on P&L resilience and sensitivities 4. Focus on synergies and performance plan Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

7 Focus on electricity market dynamics Price convergence in Western Europe Forward power prices base load Cal 09 ( /MWh) An increasingly integrated market in Western Europe More transparency competition and liquidity Called marginal unit: the most efficient on the copper plate, as long as interconnection capacity is available Liquid market allowing 3 years hedging DE BE FR UK NL Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

8 Focus on electricity market dynamics Increasing market integration in Western Europe 2006 Main interconnection capacities in GWh Portugal (14 GW) Spain (83 GW) UK (76 GW) France (117 GW) Germany (127 GW) Italy (94 GW) Poland (33 GW) Source: UCTE Morocco Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

9 Focus on electricity market dynamics European markets: growing integration but different drivers in each region European markets Nord pool (Sweden, Norway, Denmark ) Benelux, France, Germany (in 2009) UK/Ireland Iberia Italy Eastern countries Key Drivers Liquid and liberalized markets, large hydro generation park Liquid and liberalized wholesale market due to coupling (shared clearing platform), regulated tariffs in France but liberalized elsewhere, marginal plant: CCGT (mid-merit) Liquid and liberalized markets, large number of players, marginal plant: CCGT (mid-merit) Isolated market, pool mechanism (spot) and capacity fee, hydro availability driven prices Isolated market, regulated and liberalized retail tariffs, largest power importer (F, CH, ), large gas and coal generation park, marginal plant: CCGT (mid-merit) Less liquid markets, more regulated, on going modernization Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

10 Focus on electricity market dynamics Inadequate System reserve margin to match medium term demand triggering need for investments Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

11 Content 1. Focus on gas market dynamics 2. Focus on electricity market dynamics 3. Focus on P&L resilience and sensitivities 4. Focus on synergies and performance plan Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

12 Focus on P&L resilience and sensitivities A robust business model resilient to market changes ~ 25% EBITDA from energy regulated activities (~ 3.0bn in 2007) Gas sales Sales to large customers (Key accounts ~ 200 TWh) are 100% hedged until end of contracts (1 to 2 years), i.e ~ 90% of 2009 forecast sales Retail sales: pricing according to a formula reflecting supply contract Electricity sales Europe: ~25% of electricity sales are retail sales priced according to a formula reflecting Belgium s generation mix hedging target: > 85% in 2009 and > 60% in 2010 Outside Europe: ca 80% of revenues are contracted (PPA, ) Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

13 Focus on P&L resilience and sensitivities Gas business: main sensitivities Impact of crude oil prices on E&P activities E&P activities structurally long oil Volumes: 75% gas (mostly oil indexed) / 25% oil Average contractual time lag of 9 months Impact of crude oil prices on gas purchase and sales activities Neutral average exposure, since costs are passed through to end-users Cost transmission dynamics may impact short term performance Most sales are committed and hedged with 6 to 18 months anticipation Storage effect (stored gas is purchased and then sold with several months time lag) Dependant on oil price evolution Arbitrage opportunities arising from flexible gas contracts and gas storage injection / withdrawal cycle Impact of short term weather conditions Low impact on E&P activities (mostly take-or-pay ) Part of gas demand is weather-sensitive (mainly retail and BtoB) + 1US$ / bbl ca + 20m EBITDA + 1 TWh ca + 10m to 15m EBITDA Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

14 Focus on P&L resilience and sensitivities Electricity business: technology driven sensitivity Increase in electricity prices Positive for non-oil dependant technologies Regulatory risk Increase in clean spreads ( spark and dark ) Positive even if all-in commodity prices to customers go down Positive for coal and gas fueled generation Environmental regulation Positive impact on P&L for renewable energies (wind, hydro, solar, biomass, ) and nuclear Negative for coal but progress being made in carbon capture technologies Mitigated through: Natural hedge via diversified generation mix Lag and smoothing effect of contractual indexation Price floor arising from need to sustain investments Premium to diversified generation mix Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

15 Content 1. Focus on gas market dynamics 2. Focus on electricity market dynamics 3. Focus on P&L resilience and sensitivities 4. Focus on synergies and performance plan Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

16 Accelerated merger synergies reinforced by a new performance program targeting 1.8bn Cumulated EBITDA impact* of synergies and performance plan 1,800m Performance plan 500m ,100m bn Total synergies 785 Costs synergies *Excluding implementation costs Operating performance improvements, optimization of support functions and cross-business projects to drive value creation Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,

17 Conclusion Positive long term dynamics for gas and electricity markets GDF SUEZ s balanced business model largely resilient to external shocks Ambitious performance plan launched to support medium term financial targets Investor Day GDF SUEZ November 26,