Changing Landscape of LNG Business in the APEC Region
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1 Changing Landscape of LNG Business in the APEC Region APEC Workshop on APEC Energy Future Ulsan, Korea 22 August 2005 Yonghun Jung, Ph.D Vice President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, Tokyo
2 Table of Contents An Outlook of Natural Gas APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook Drivers for Natural Gas Ease of use, clean, and market development LNG and PNG LNG is preferred choice LNG Developments LNG Outlook Supply and Demand Flexibility Barriers for LNG Developments Economic, Financial and Regulatory Barriers
3 Total Primary Energy Supply in APEC ( ) TPES growing at an annual rate of 2.1 percent ( ) Mtoe NRE 1.1 % p.a. Nuclear 1.7 % p.a. Hydro 2.7 % p.a. Natural Gas 2.6 % p.a Coal 2.1% p.a. Oil 2.1% p.a Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear New and Renewables Source: APERC (2002), APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002
4 Outlook for Natural Gas by Region ( ) Mtoe North America Latin America Northeast Asia Southeast Asia Oceania China Russia Annual Growth Rate of Natural Gas by Region Russia 2.0% China 4.2% 8.3% Oceania 5.6% 2.6% Southeast Asia 10.7% 3.9% Northeast Asia 7.2% 3.3% Latin America 3.1% 6.3% North America 0.7% 1.8% Source: APERC (2002), APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002 Note: IEA data for Viet Nam is available from 1986 onwards and Russian data is available from 1992 onwards, hence these are respectively included from 1990 and 1999 onwards.
5 Natural Gas: Incremental Growth by Sector and Region ( ) Power sector will drive natural gas demand growth Mtoe North America, Russia and China absorb two-thirds China 14% Russia 19% North America 34% Oceania 2% Southeast Asia 9% Northeast Asia 10% Latin America 12% 0 Power generation Industry Transport Commercial Residential Source: APERC (2002), APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002
6 Why Natural Gas? Easy to use Clean Neither SOx, nor NOx Urbanization Mature market Competitive price Many sellers and many buyers
7 Two Modes of Transportation LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) and PNG (Pipeline Natural Gas) Determining Factors Distance, Volume and Destination (Blue Stream Project) LNG: Popular and preferred choice Strong gas demand in ever growing power sector LNG is growing more rapidly due to the relative cost reduction, abundant supply, mature technology, and increasingly flexible contract terms and conditions
8 Transportation Costs by Types of Natural Gas Trade 7 $/MMBTU PNG Gorgon 3 Natuna Yakutia Alaska Qatar 2 Sakhalin II Irkutsk ALNG (Guangdong) 1 Tangguh (Fujian) LNG 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Kilometres Source: APERC (2000), Natural Gas Infrastructure Development in Northeast Asia
9 US Net Imports of Natural Gas, (trillion cubic feet) Annual Energy Outlook 2003 Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Source: Energy Information Administration (2003) and (2004), Annual Energy Outlook 2003 and Annual Energy Outlook 2004
10 Outlook of LNG for APEC Expansion of LNG use in new locations (China, the Philippines, USA) is in sight USA (EIA 04) Japan (APERC) Korea (APERC) China (APERC) Chinese Taipei (APERC) Phillipines (APERC) millon ton share in total gas 1% 97% 100% 94% million ton share in total gas 8% 98% 100% 30% 91% million ton share in total gas 14% 100% 100% 51% 95% 36% Total Source: APERC (2002), Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002 and Energy Information Administration (2004), Annual Energy Outlook 2004
11 LNG Developments Supply Abundant supply Lots of green projects, significant debottlenecking potential, and new suppliers in the horizon Significant cost reduction In all stages of fuel chain including liquefaction, transportation, and re-gasification Demand Robust growth Power sector in China
12 LNG Supply Cost Reduction Technology development and improvement in operation helped reduce the total supply cost $/MMBtu Liquefaction (Left-handed) Shipping (Right-handed) $/t/y $/m Low in 1990 High in 1990 Low in 2000 High in 2000 Regasification Shipping (LNG tanker) Liquefaction Upstream Development Cost Source: CEDIGAZ MLNG 1 Qatargas Oman LNG Qatar Source: Recreated from the data available at Poten & Partners website Note: MLNG1: 1983 grass-roots, Qatargas: 1996 grass-roots, Oman LNG: 2000 grass-roots, Qatar: 2000 expansion 500 0
13 Existing and Proposed LNG Receiving Terminals in China and India Source: Spadine (2004) LNG comes of age, a paper presented at the APERC s mid-year workshop 2004
14 LNG Supply from Australia Possible Browse & Pilbara LNG Sunrise Million tonnes per annum Actual NWS train 5 + Gorgon Darwin NWS train Source: Stone (2005), Australian LNG Supply, a paper presented at the APEC LNG workshop, March 2005
15 Flexibility in LNG Contracts Shorter duration Price flexibility Evolution of pricing Cost Plus? Crude Oil Parity, Petroleum Product Price Indexation? Electricity Price Parity? Stable price regime Price floor/ceiling Decoupling with crude oil price Volume flexibility DQT/UQT? 10%~ 20% Periodical price review
16 Monthly Natural Gas Price Movements in Japan, Korea, Europe and USA (2000-Jan.2005) Cold Weather and Infrastructure Constraint Cold Weather and Infrastructure Constraint Commencement of Iraq War $/ 1000 kcal Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan September 11th Terrorist Attack DUBAI in Tokyo market WTI (Market of NY) Henry Hub, La. LNG Import Price to Japan LNG Import Price to Korea LNG Import Price to US Coal Import Price to Japan Source: APERC Analysis (2005)
17 Correlation between LNG Price and Crude Oil Price ( ) Decoupling with crude oil price? LNG Price (CIF) $/MMBTU Japan LNG y = x China (Guangdong) LNG y = 0.052x Crude Oil Price (CIF) $/bbl Source: APERC Analysis (2004) based on data from IEA (2004), Energy Prices and Taxes for LNG price, EDMC Database (2002) for Crude Oil Price, and Guangdong data was estimated by Petrostrategies (2002)
18 Other Notable Developments Equity participation of buyers in upstream CNOOC in Tangguh Project KOGAS in Oman Project TEPCO and Tokyo Gas in Darwin Project Emergence and increase of short-term and spot deals Technology seems as though entering the mature stage Recently passed US energy bill to give the federal government authority to construct LNG terminals
19 Nevertheless Economic barriers Demand security? affordability in many developing economies per capita income Gas has to compete against coal China s plan for reform for electricity price indexation to coal price High distribution cost China s city gas demand Financial barriers High, initial capital cost? take-or-pay Regulatory/Institutional barriers Siting, zoning regulations BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere, Anytime, Near Anybody) in US Environmental regulations
20 China s LPG Demand for Residential Sector ( ) Final LPG demand in China for represented annual growth rate of 22%. 10 Mtoe Total Industry Sector Commercial and Public Services Total Transport Sector Residential Source: APERC Analysis (2005) based on data from IEA (2004), Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries
21 List of APERC s Publications on Natural Gas Natural Gas Infrastructure Development in Northeast Asia (2000) Natural Gas Infrastructure Development in Northeast Asia (2000) Natural Gas Infrastructure Development in Southeast Asia (2000) APEC Energy Pricing Practices Natural Gas End-use Prices (2001) Gas Storage in the APEC Region (2002) Natural Gas Market Reform in the APEC Region (2003)
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