Business cycles and monetary policy

Transcription

1 Business cycles and monetary policy Deputy Governor Jarle Bergo Handelsbanken and the Centre for Economic Research at NTNU April Interest rates and inflation Per cent Market rate Real interest rate Neutral real interest rate Inflation Trondheim April Sources: Statistics Norway and

2 Projected consumer price inflation -year horizon. Annual rise. Per cent Employers organisations Employees organisations Experts Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Trondheim April Source: TNS Gallup Krone exchange rate and interest rate differential against trading partners Percentage points Index Krone exchange rate (right-hand scale) Interest rate differential (left-hand scale) Trondheim April Source:

3 Demand Average quarterly growth (annualised) through Q. Per cent Last 7 quarters Last quarters Private cons. Public cons. Mainland invest. Petroleum invest. Exp. trad. goods Trondheim April Sources: Statistics Norway and Housing investment and housing starts Seasonally adjusted. Q Q 9 Housing starts, number of dwellings (right-hand scale) 7 Housing investment, in millions of -NOK (left-hand scale) Trondheim April Sources: Statistics Norway and

4 Output, employment and productivity Average quarterly growth (annualised) through Q. Per cent Last 7 quarters Last quarters Mainland GDP Employed persons Person-hours worked Productivity Trondheim April Sources: Statistics Norway and 7 Rise in prices and capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy Per cent Rise in prices for goods and services produced in Norway Capacity utilisation Trondheim April Sources: Statistics Norway and

5 CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector -month change. Per cent. Jan Mar Trondheim April Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Actual IR / Contribution to the decline in CPI-ATE inflation from Dec Percentage points. Jan Mar Imported consumer goods House rents Remainder Other services - Sources: Statistics Norway and 9 Harmonised indices of consumer prices in the Nordic countries and the euro area -month change. Per cent. Jan Mar Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Euro area - - Trondheim April Source: Eurostat

6 Underlying spending growth in the government budget and nominal growth in mainland GDP Growth on previous year. Per cent. 9 9 Underlying spending growth 9 Nominal growth in mainland GDP Trondheim April Sources: Ministry of Finance (NB ) and Statistics Norway GDP growth among trading partners Real growth on previous year. Actual and forecasts China ) World ) trading partners ) Trondheim April ) Source: Consensus Forecasts ) Source:

7 Chinese imports of crude oil and oil price Monthly imports in millions of tonnes. Oil price, USD/barrel. -month moving average Chinese imports of aluminium and aluminium prices Monthly imports in thousands of tonnes. Aluminium price in USD/tonne. -month moving average Chinese imports, aluminium (right-hand scale) Oil price (left-hand scale) 9 Chinese imports of crude oil (right-hand scale) Spot price aluminium (left-hand scale) Trondheim April Sources: EcoWin, National Bureau of Statistics and Oil price in USD/barrel (Brent Blend) Forward prices from Oct, Mar and 9 Apr Daily figures. Jan Dec 7 9 April IR - IR - 7 Trondheim April Sources:, Telerate and IPE 7

8 Excess capacity for OPEC Million barrels per day. Annual figures 7 Monthly figures Trondheim April Sources: EIA (annual figures) and IEA (monthly figures) Estimates of supply of oil from countries outside OPEC Estimates from IEA. Million barrels per day US and Canada Western Europe Russia South America Non-OPEC total (righthand scale) Trondheim April Sources: IMF and IEA

9 Investment intentions survey. Oil and gas recovery incl. pipeline transport Estimated and actual investments. In billions of NOK The petroleum sector Production in industries supplying goods and services to the petroleum sector Regional network.. Index ) M A N F M A N actual Estimate made previous year Estimate made same year - ) A positive index value indicates increased activity - Trondheim April Sources: Statistics Norway and s regional network 7 Wage growth -quarter change. Per cent Euro area UK Japan External price impulses US Sweden Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency Annual figures. Per cent Trondheim April Sources: EcoWin and 9

10 -month money market rate and exchange rate in IR / Quarterly figures. Per cent. Q Q Interest rate (left-hand scale) 9 Import-weighted exchange rate (right-hand scale) Trondheim April 9 Source: 9 Real growth in household disposable income ) and consumption Annual figures. Per cent. 99 Real income growth Real growth in consumption ) Adjusted for extraordinary share dividends since Trondheim April Sources: Statistics Norway and

11 Projected CPI-ATE and output gap in IR / Quarterly figures. Per cent. Q Q CPI-ATE - Output gap Trondheim April Sources: Statistics Norway and 's monetary policy meeting of April s Executive Board decided today to leave the interest rate unchanged. The Executive Board weighed the objective of bringing inflation back to target and stable inflation expectations against the risk that output growth may eventually be too high. Trondheim April