U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.
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1 U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
2 1-month % change 1.5 Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures Aug-29-release, Jul = 0.33 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
3 1-month % change 1.0 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Aug-29-release, Jul = 0.33 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
4 Personal Income 1-month % change Aug-29-release, Jul = 0.45 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
5 Consumer Confidence/Sentiment Index Recession Confidence (Jul-26-release, Jul = 97.3) Sentiment (Aug-26-release, Aug = 89.8) Consumer Sentiment: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board
6 Real GDP 1-quarter % change, annualized Aug-26-release, Q2 = 1.1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
7 4-week MA Thousands of Initial Claims Initial Claims for Unemployment and Unemployment Rate Percent Unemployment Initial Claims (Aug-25-release, Aug 20=264) Recession Unemployment Rate (Aug-05-release, Jul=4.9) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor
8 New Orders for Durable Goods Billions of Dollars Durable Goods (Aug-25-release, Jul = 228.9) Excl. Transportation (Aug-25-release, Jul = 150) Recession Source: Bureau of the Census
9 Home Sales Thousands of New Homes 1,400 Thousands of Existing Homes 6,800 1,200 1,000 5, , , ,800 New Home Sales (Aug-23- release, Jul = 654) Existing Home Sales (Aug-24- release, Jul = 4820) Recession Source: Bureau of the Census, National Association of Realtors
10 Housing Starts and Permits Thousands 2,300 1,900 1,500 1, Recession Housing Starts (Aug-16-release, Jul = 1211) Permits Issued (Aug-24-release, Jul = 1144) Source: Bureau of the Census
11 Index of Leading Economic Indicators 140 Index Recession Leading Index (Aug-18-release, Jul = 124.3) Source: The Conference Board
12 Industrial Production 1-month % change Aug-16-release, Jul = 0.7 Source: Federal Reserve Board
13 Percent 87 Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate Recession CU Rate (Aug-16-release, Jul = 75.4) Historic Average (1948-present) Source: Federal Reserve Board
14 Retail Sales 1-month % change Aug-12-release, Jul = Source: Bureau of the Census
15 Retail Sales, Excluding Autos 1-month % change Aug-12-release, Jul = 0.29 Source: Bureau of the Census
16 Change in Nonfarm Employment Thousands of jobs Aug-05-release, Jul = 255 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
17 U.S. Imports and Exports Billions of Dollars Recession Exports (Aug-05-release, Jun = 183.2) Imports (Aug-05-release, Jun = 227.7) Source: Bureau of the Census
18 ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index Index Aug-03-release, Jul = 59.3 Source : Institute for Supply Management
19 Purchasing Managers Index Index Aug-01-release, Jul = 52.6 Source: Institute for Supply Management
20 Real Value of the Dollar March 1973 = Exchange Value of the US$ (Aug-01- release, Jul=98.2) US$ vs Major Currencies* (Aug-01- release, Jul=103.3) * Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden Source: Federal Reserve Board
21 WAGES AND PRICES
22 PCE Price Index 1-month % change Aug-29-release, Jul = 0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
23 Core PCE Price Index 1-month % change Aug-29-release, Jul = 0.09 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
24 Consumer Price Index 1-month % change Aug-16-release, Jul = Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
25 Core Consumer Price Index 1-month % change Aug-16-release, Jul = 0.09 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
26 Producer Price Index 1-month % change Aug-12-release, Jul = -0.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
27 Core Producer Price Index 1-month % change Aug-12-release, Jul = -0.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
28 Nonfarm Business Productivity 1-quarter % change, annualized Aug-09-release, Q2 = -0.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
29 Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Cost 1-quarter % change, annualized Aug-09-release, Q2 = 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
30 Average Hourly Earnings 1-month % change Aug-05-release, Jul = 0.33 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
31 Commodity Prices 1967=100, EOP 1, KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals (Aug-03- release, Jul=705) Recession KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Industrials (Aug-03- release, Jul=459.2) Source: Commodity Research Bureau
32 ISM Manufacturing Prices Index Index Aug-01-release, Jul = 55 Source : Institute for Supply Management
33 Employment Cost Index 1-quarter % change Jul-29-release, Q2 = 0.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
34 FINANCIAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS
35 Percent Recession Probability Real-time Neftci probability calculated from 10-yr. 1-yr. Treasury yield spread Recession Neftci Recession Probability Crosses 70% threshold with a lead of between 5 and 18 months, and averaging 11 months. *Indicator properties of the yield curve may be distorted during this period due to the zero bound on shortterm interest rates and Federal Reserve purchases of long-term Treasuries. Source: Federal Reserve Board; calculations by FRB Dallas Extraordinary monetary policy*
36 4 Percent Real Federal Funds Rate End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation Target Fed Funds Rate (Aug-26) less SPF Expected Inflation (Aug-12) End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation Target Fed Funds Rate (Aug-26) less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation (Aug-26) Sources: Target Fed Funds Rate: Federal Reserve Board; SPF Expected Inflation: FRB Philadelphia; U. of Michigan Expected Inflation: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan
37 Percent 7 Short-Term Interest Rates Target Fed Fund Rate (Aug 26 = 0.375) Source: Federal Reserve Board 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Aug 26 = 0.34) Discount Window Primary Credit Rate (Aug 25 = 1) 3-month LIBOR (Aug 26 = 0.833)
38 Long-Term Interest Rates Percent Mortgage Rate (week of Aug 25 = 3.43) 10-year T-Bond (week of Aug 26= 1.57) 10-year T-Bond (Aug 26 = 1.62) Source: Federal Reserve Board
39 Percent Bond Spreads Merrill Lynch s Yield on Low-Grade Corporate Bonds, Moody s AAA and BAA Corporate Percent Low-Grade Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Aug 19 = 3.39) Daily (Aug 25 = 3.39) BAA Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Aug 19 = 0.94) Daily (Aug 25 = 0.94) Source: Moody s Investors Service, Merrill Lynch
40 Yield Curve Percent Month T-Bill Rate (week of Aug 26) 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Aug 26 = 0.34) 1-year T-Bill Rate (week of Aug 26) 1-year T-Bill Rate (Aug 26 = 0.62) 10-year T-Bond Rate (week of Aug 26) 10-year T-Bond Rate (Aug 26 = 1.62) Source: Federal Reserve Board
41 Money Supply: M1 1-month % change, annualized Aug-25-release, Jul = Source: Federal Reserve Board
42 Money Supply: M2 1-month % change, annualized Aug-25-release, Jul = 7.8 Source: Federal Reserve Board
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. http://www.dallasfed.org
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Index of Leading Economic Indicators 140 Index 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Recession Leading Index (Aug-18-release, Jul = 124.3) Source:
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. http://www.dallasfed.org
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Purchasing Managers Index Index 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Aug-01-release, Jul = 52.6 Source: Institute for Supply Management Real Value of the Dollar March 1973 = 100 120 110 100 90
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