The Global Light Vehicle Market Outlook to 2026

Transcription

1 The Global Light Vehicle Market Outlook to 2026 Commodity Inside

2 Contents Contents Chapter 1 Executive Summary 1.1 Developments in the global light vehicle market 1.2 Megatrends in the automotive industry 1.3 Methodology Chapter 2 Global Light Vehicle Market 2.1 Asia and Oceania Market overview Market outlook Country profiles Australia China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Thailand Vietnam 2.2 Central and South America Market overview Market outlook 1

3 Contents Country profiles Argentina Brazil Chile Columbia Uruguay 2.3 Europe Market overview Market outlook Country profiles Czech Republic France Germany Italy Poland Russia Spain Turkey UK 2.4 Middle East and Africa Market overview Market outlook Country profiles Egypt Iran Israel Saudi Arabia South Africa 2

4 Contents UAE 2.5 North America Market overview Market outlook Country profiles Canada Mexico USA Chapter 3 Megatrends in the Light Vehicle Industry 3.1 Autonomous driving 3.2 Big data 3.3 Connectivity 3.4 Consolidations in Asia 3.5 Cyber security 3.6 Electric mobility 3.7 On-demand mobility 3.8 Revenue growth and diversification Chapter 4 Global Light Vehicle Materials Market 4.1 Aluminium 4.2 Composites 4.3 Glass 4.4 Plastics 4.5 Steel 4.6 Lightweighting and its implication for automotive materials 3

5 Contents Chapter 5 Market Strategies and Competitive landscapes 5.1 Strategies and competitive landscapes 5.2 Strategies for autonomous and connected vehicles Appendix A Light Vehicle Sales in Major Countries by Segments (A, B, C, D, E, F, SUV, MPV, Sport, Pick up and others) ( 000 units) A.1 Canada A.2 Brazil A.3 China A.4 France A.5 Germany A.6 India A.7 Italy A.8 Japan A.9 UK A.10 US Appendix B Trade statistics B.1 Net exports of light vehicles by engine displacement in units B.2 Net exports of light vehicles by engine displacement in value List of Tables Table 1.1 Global light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table 1.2 Global light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ billions) 4

6 Contents Table 1.3 Global light vehicle sales by region (million units) Table 2.1 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table 2.2 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Table 2.3 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle average prices by 10 segments ($) Table 2.4 Central and South American light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table 2.5 Central and South American light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Table 2.6 Central and South American light vehicle average prices by 10 segments ($) Table 2.7 European light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table 2.8 European light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Table 2.9 European light vehicle average prices by 10 segments ($) Table 2.10 Middle Eastern and African light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table 2.11 Middle Eastern and African light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Table 2.12 Middle East and Africa light vehicle average prices by 10 segments ($) Table 2.13 North American light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table 2.14 North American light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Table 2.15 North American light vehicle average prices by 10 segments ($) Table 3.1 Various scenarios for semi and fully autonomous vehicles sales (% share) Table 3.2 Automotive big data revenue ($billions) Table 3.3 Global connected car market revenue segmentation by safety, autonomous driving and connected services ($ billions, % change) Table 3.4 Connected car market revenue by region ($ billions) Table 3.5 Car sharing market by members, vehicles and member per vehicle by 6 regions ( 000, % ratio) Table 3.6 Global automotive revenues by major value chain components ($ billions) 5

7 Contents Table 4.1 Global demand for steel, aluminium, other metals, plastics, glass and other materials by 10 light vehicle segments in 2015 (tonnes) Table 4.2 Global aluminium demand by 10 light vehicle segments ( 000 tonnes) Table 4.3 Evolution of aluminium usage as a % of curb weight across 10 light vehicle segments (% of curb weight) Table 4.4 Global glass demand by 10 light vehicle segments ( 000 tonnes) Table 4.5 Evolution of glass usage as a % of curb weight across 10 light vehicle segments (% of curb weight) Table 4.6 Global plastics demand by 10 light vehicle segments ( 000 tonnes) Table 4.7 Evolution of plastics usage as a % of curb weight across 10 light vehicle segments (% of curb weight) Table 4.8 Plastic demand by type in the global light vehicle industry ( 000 tonnes) Table 4.9 Global steel demand by 10 light vehicle segments ( 000 tonnes) Table 4.10 Evolution of steel usage as a % of curb weight across 10 light vehicle segments (% of curb weight) Table 4.11 Steel demand by type in the global light vehicle industry ( 000 tonnes) Table 5.1 The top 10 car makers s R&D spendings on autonomous vehicles and expected launching years ($ millions) Table 5.2 Top 10 car makers in the connected car market by revenue and market share in 2015 ($ billions, % share) Table 5.3 Car manufacturers by brands Table A.1 Canadian light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table A.2 Brazilian light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table A.3 Chines light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table A.4 Franch light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table A.5 German light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table A.6 Indian light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) 6

8 Contents Table A.7 Italian light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table A.8 Japanes light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table A.9 UK light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table A.10 US light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Table B.1 Net exports of light vehicles by engine displacement for 150 countries ( 00 units) Table B.2 Net exports of light vehicles by engine displacement for 150 countries ($ millions) List of Figures Figure 1.1 Global light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Figure 1.2 Global light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ billions) Figure 1.3 Global light vehicle sales by region (million units) Figure 2.1 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Figure 2.2 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Figure 2.3 Central and South American light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Figure 2.4 Central and South American light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Figure 2.5 European light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Figure 2.6 European light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Figure 2.7 Middle Eastern and African light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Figure 2.8 Middle Eastern and African light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Figure 2.9 North American light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) Figure 2.10 North American light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) Figure 3.1 Various scenarios for semi and fully autonomous vehicles sales (% share) Figure 3.2 Automotive big data revenue ($billions) 7

9 Contents Figure 3.3 Global connected car market revenue segmentation by safety, autonomous driving and connected services ($ billions) Figure 3.4 Connected car market revenue by region ($ billions) Figure 3.5 Global automotive revenues by major value chain components ($ billions) Figure 4.1 Evolution of global average curb weight (kg) Figure 4.2 Global demand for steel, aluminium, other metals, plastics, glass and other materials by 10 light vehicle segments in 2015 (tonnes) Figure 4.3 Global aluminium demand by 10 light vehicle segments ( 000 tonnes) Figure 4.4 Global glass demand by 10 light vehicle segments ( 000 tonnes) Figure 4.5 Global plastics demand by 10 light vehicle segments ( 000 tonnes) Figure 4.6 Plastic demand by type in global light vehicle market ( 000 tonnes) Figure 4.7 Global steel demand by 10 light vehicle segments ( 000 tonnes) Figure 4.8 Steel demand by type in global light vehicle market ( 000 tonnes) List of Charts Chart 4.1 The composites market share by three types 2015 and 2026 (% share) Chart 4.2 A snapshot of composites supply chain market and major players, 2016 Chart 4.3 Automotive plastics usage by type in major components 2016 Chart 4.4 Major automotive plastics types by producers 2016 Chart 4.5 Weight reductions in relationship with materials and prices ($, %) Chart 4.6 Current and future potential for materials substitutions and implications on costs 8

10 Chapter 2 Global Light Vehicle Market 2015 was the worst year for light vehicle sales in Central and South America, when sales registered almost 20% decline. We expect that the regional sales will be on a downward trajectory till 2017 mainly as a result of a slowdown in Brazil. The region is often affected by social and political instability which remain a drag on the market, and we expect that such situation will continue to prevail in the market over the forecast period. Brazil will take slightly longer to recover compared to other neighbouring countries as it is more vulnerable to commodity prices and currency fluctuation. Over the next 1-2 years the region will remain relatively unchanged in terms of sales compositions, though afterwards, SUV segment will increase its market share by cannibalising the smaller vehicles market. Despite the bleak short term outlook, the regional automotive market has still enormous upside risks as car ownerships are low and disposable income is relatively higher compared to other developing regional markets. 9

11 Chapter 2 Global Light Vehicle Market Table 0.1: European light vehicle sales by 10 segments ( 000 units) A city car B subcompact C compact D midsize E large F luxury SUV/CUV MPV Pick-up Others Europe Table 0.2: European light vehicle sales by 10 segments ($ millions) A city car B subcompact C compact D midsize E large F luxury SUV/CUV MPV Pick-up Others Europe

12 Chapter 2 Global Light Vehicle Market Egypt Macroeconomic indicators Real GDP % growth GDP per capita % growth Population Population % growth Light vehicle market indicators Light vehicle sales (units) % change Region share (%) Global share (%) Total vehicles in use (units) % change Motorisation rate ( 000 people) 11

13 Chapter 3 Megatrends in the Light Vehicle Industry 3.7 On-demand mobility On-demand mobility is best fit for areas with high population density and substantial vehicle base. Presently, one vehicle is used for all trip purposes for instance, shopping, travelling, work commute etc. On-demand mobility will allow users to use best solutions for each of their needs. Once shared mobility becomes prevalent, vehicles will be designed according to specific needs. So, in the future, there will be a specific car for specific trip purposes for instance city car for work commute, minivan for travelling, pickup for shopping etc. Similarly, cars for a Transportation Network Company (TNC) will be designed to be reliable and durable as they are used more often, while cars designed for vacations will be optimised for comforts. 12

14 Chapter 3 Megatrends in the Light Vehicle Industry Table 0.3: Car sharing market by members, vehicles and member per vehicle by 6 regions ( 000, % ratio) Asia Members vehicles M-V Europe Members vehicles M-V North America Members vehicles M-V South America Members vehicles M-V Oceania Members vehicles M-V Africa & Middle East Members vehicles M-V Global Members vehicles M-V 13

15 Chapter 4 Global Light Vehicle Materials Market Carmakers employ different strategies for reducing a car weight. In the economy and sedan segments, OEMs tend to use more advanced steel such as Advanced High Strength Steel (AHSS) and Ultra High Strength Steel (UHSS). In an upper-class model, OEMs prefer a mixture of AHSS, aluminium and composites. In premium and luxury vehicles, most weight reduction comes from an extensive use of aluminium, while in super premium and sports cars lightweighting achieved by more usage of carbon fibre. The use of materials is closely correlated with materials costs and car category. Table 0.4: Global usage of steel, aluminium, other metals, plastics, glass and other materials by 10 light vehicle segments in 2015 (tonnes) Steel Aluminium Other metals Plastics Glass Others A city car B subcompact C compact D midsize E large F luxury SUV/CUV MPV Sport(y) Pick-up Other Total 14

16 Chapter 4 Global Light Vehicle Materials Market Table 0.5: Global steel demand by 10 light vehicle segments ( 000 tonnes)

17 Chapter 5 Market Strategies and Competitive Landscapes With regards to the development of autonomous vehicles technology, Toyota is running behind its rivals. In 2014, it announced not to pursue the autonomous driving technology for safety reasons. However, the company is now planning to roll out its development plans in two stages. Over the next 4-5 years, Toyota is expected to introduce its first self-driving car, though initially capable of running on highways only. In the next stage, the company will introduce a fully autonomous vehicle which can be used on any roads. The company has already started investing in autonomous driving technologies. We estimate that the company spent around $255 million on autonomous vehicle technology projects in 2015, and the spending is expected to reach $1bn in We expect that its investment in AV s R&D will keep increasing over the first 4-5 years for ADT development and will stay relatively flat afterwards. 16

18 Chapter 5 Market Strategies and Competitive Landscapes Table 0.6: 2015 Top 10 car makers developing autonomous driving technologies by AV R&D spending and expected launch of AV ($ millions) Company R&D spending on AV technology ($ millions) Expected Year of Launch Daimler AG Volkswagen Group General Motors Co. Honda Motor Co. Ford Motor Company Nissan Motor Company BMW Group Hyundai Motor Group AB Volvo Toyota Motor Corporation 17

19 ORDER FORM This report will provide you an in-depth analysis on the following: The conventional light vehicle market is analysed by 10 segments (A, B, C, D, F, SUV/CUV, MPV, Sport(y), Pick-up and others). The full coverage of conventional light vehicle market in terms of sales volume and value. Coverage of the whole world by 5 regions and selected major countries. Discussion on the major megatrends. Detailed analysis of steel, aluminium, plastics, glass, composites and others materials. Market projections for connected car, shared mobility, autonomous vehicles and big data 82 tables, figures and charts This is a content rich report with all supportive data is provided in Excel. The Global Light Vehicle Market Outlook to 2026 Price Single user licence : 3,378 Departmental licence ( 2-5 users) : 5,995 Global user licence (over 5 users) : 9,978 Hard copy@ 250 per copy Company details Total amount Payment details Package Required Name: Position: Company: Address: Phone: Credit cards Please debit my credit/ debit card Card number: Valid from: / to: / CSV Number: Card holders name: Signed: Date: Direct Money Transfer Invoice will be sent to the address You are now able to choose from various payment options through our website. Please visit our website at VAT number (for EU sales only): For any questions please contact us at: Sales@commodityinside.com or call +44 (0) We accept all major cards including American Express. We also provide Pay-by-link option using WorldPay.