SCOTCH WHISKY EXPORTS REVIEW 2015

Transcription

1 SCOTCH WHISKY EXPORTS REVIEW 2015

2 FOREWORD The following commentary and analysis is based on publicly available data published by HMRC via the HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics database. The review provides an analysis of the annual export statistics for Scotch Whisky, with commentary from the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) on the trade flows of different Scotch Whisky categories to different regions and, to some extent, individual countries. While HMRC provides information on seven different commodity codes, for the purposes of this document, and in order to simplify the analysis, an aggregation of categories has been calculated in order to provide an overview for: - Single Malt Scotch Whisky - Blended Bottled Scotch Whisky 1 - Bulk Scotch Whisky 2 To access volume and value data using Google Maps please click on the following image or copy the following address into a web browser: Note: volume figures are recorded with HMRC in terms of litres of pure alcohol (LPA). Export figures are often also quoted in number of 9-litre cases (9LCs) and sometimes in bottles of 70cl. They may be converted approximately as follows: 1,000 bottles = 83 cases (12 bottles to a case) = 280 LPA 1 aggregating bottled blended malt, bottled blended and bottled single/blended grain 2 combining bulk blended malt and bulk single/blended grain 2

3 EXPORT TRENDS: HEADLINES The volume of Scotch Whisky exports in 2015 amounted to 1.16bn bottles. This represents a 10% increase over the last decade from 1.05bn in At the same time, the value of exports in 2016 amounted to 3,855m, an increase of 56% over the last decade from 2,479m. Overall, the trend has been to achieve more export value for the same volume, i.e. towards premiumisation which has been generated through an increased emphasis on, and attractiveness of, single malts and premium blends, as well as additional penetration within regions and markets. The last decade has been a period of very strong growth up until Following that, there has been a limited slowdown due to global instability, market conditions in certain countries, and exchange rate fluctuations. While challenges remain, growth is returning in more mature markets while emerging markets still provide good potential. In short, prospects for growth remain strong but the industry continues to face challenging global economic conditions. Blended Scotch Whisky remains dominant in the export mix, accounting for 70% by volume and by value of all Scotch exports in 2015, but falling from 73% by volume and 78% by value in This is because Single Malt exports have increased significantly over the same period. They now represent 9% by volume and 24% by value, 916m, of Scotch exports, increasing from 7% and 16% in 2006 respectively. By value this is a CAGR of 12.4% over the last decade. Finally, bulk exports represent about 21% by volume but just 6% by value. Overall, these figures have barely changed over the last decade. Bulk exports are used for bottling overseas and in other products. 3

4 THE PICTURE IN 2015: GLOBAL The figures for 2015 represent a decline of 2.8% in volume and 2.4% in value compared to This is a slower decline than the approximately 7% falls seen between 2013 and Market fundamental positions remain strong in most markets and it is developments in a relative minority of markets, combined with global economic headwinds, which drag the overall figures. Total: 3.855bn, 2015 One significant trend this was in exports to those countries whose economies are driven by oil and other commodities. The slowdown in these economies, for example Brazil, Russia, and some African countries, saw a knock-on effect on Scotch exports. Volatility in currency valuations and foreign exchange has also provided a challenge for companies which have an interest in many international markets with high fluctuations impacting pricing and affordability. The recession in Brazil in particular has had a notable impact on the overall figures. The fifth largest market by volume in 2014, exports to Brazil dropped by 20% in 2015, which produced a significant negative skew on the overall global figures (see: Focus on: Brazil ). The decline in volume in 2015 was primarily driven by a 6.9% reduction in bulk exports, although this itself is largely a correction from to high volumes of bulk exports recorded in 2013 and Blended Scotch volumes were down by 1.7% - a continuation of the picture in 2014 albeit at a much slower rate of decline and a situation which varies considerably by market. Some 4

5 markets have achieved higher values on lower volumes while others have reported growth in blends albeit at a lower valuation. The volume of single malt exports also declined by 1.8% in Nonetheless, this comes against the background of a 10% increase in Single Malt export volumes in 2014, and the 2015 figures were most likely influenced by continued stock availability in a number of markets. As for value, the value of blended Scotch Whisky fell by 3% to 2.7 billion. Since volume fell to a lesser degree, it indicates the pressure on pricing and the strong competitive environment within this sector. Single malt value was maintained with 0.4% growth, to a value of 916m, highlighting the lean towards premium products continued in The value of bulk exports dropped by 5% in 2015 indicating that some value was retained in the category despite volumes reducing at a faster rate. However, given the global nature of Scotch Whisky, while shocks such as in Brazil are unwelcome their overall impact are spread across many markets. Given the global changes which are occurring in terms of demographic and social change, shifts in economic global power, rapid urbanisation and interconnectivity often referred to as global megatrends a return to the longer term growth profile for Scotch exports is expected. SINGLE MALT MARKETS Total Single Malt Value: 916.2m, 2015 In 2015 the main destination for the majority of Single Malt remained the EU (42% by volume, 40% by value). However, EU market share has eroded from around 50% in as North American countries continue the trend for higher volumes of Single Malt. Over the last five 5

6 s an additional 476,000 cases of Single Malt have been exported, increasing the market share from 20% to over 25% for the region by volume, and nearly 30% by value. Elsewhere, Asian markets have maintained their market share of Single Malt exports of around 23%. Other smaller regions have increased volumes of Single Malt considerably, albeit from much smaller bases. The Middle East now attracts over 2% of Single Malt exports and received 173,000 cases, only 5,000 fewer cases than Africa in The exception to the rule are the Central and South American markets and wider Europe where volumes of Single Malt declined considerably in 2015, though from very small bases. BOTTLED BLENDED MARKETS The EU is the dominant region for blended Scotch exports (38% by volume, 28% by value). Volumes increased marginally but value fell by 7%. In Asia, the trend was the reverse, with volume declining by 8% but value increasing, by 0.5%. In North America, the value of bottled blend continued to increase, as part of general premiumisation in those markets. North America is now 24% of the total bottled blended value, increasing from 18% in BULK MARKETS Bulk shipments to the two dominant regions, Asia and the EU, declined in 2015 (by 2% and 11% respectively) but together they accounted for 72% of bulk exports in 2015, after strong growth in Asia received 91 million worth of bulk in 2015, predominantly to India. The EU market for bulk was valued at 70 million, predominantly to France. 6

7 DOMINANT MARKETS In 2015, Scotch Whisky was directly exported from the UK to 175 countries and territories, illustrating the global nature of the industry. Market Share (% of Global Exports in Volume terms) Top 5 Markets Top 10 Markets Top 20 Markets Of the more than 90 million cases of Scotch Whisky exported, over 78% was exported to the top 20 global markets. This proportion has increased from 74% in 2011 indicating that the primary markets have become even more important globally. However, this is probably mainly because some of the top-ranked markets, for example Singapore, Germany, or Latvia are increasingly used as export hubs which then supply Scotch Whisky further into their regions. (see: Focus on: Germany ) 7

8 Top Export Markets for Scotch Whisky in 2015 by Volume and Value Rank Country Volume (million LPA) Rank Country Value ( GBP million) 1 France USA USA France India Singapore Spain Taiwan Mexico Spain South Africa Germany Germany UAE Brazil South Africa Singapore Mexico Australia South Korea UAE Australia Japan India Poland Canada Thailand Japan Taiwan Netherlands Netherlands Turkey South Korea Brazil Latvia Poland Italy Latvia Turkey China

9 Focus on: USA and France A great deal of focus is given to emerging markets by both commentators and industry alike - and rightly so, since the growth experienced in recent s and the potential future expansion in markets is considerable. However, the emergence of these markets also comes with volatility. Developed markets remain largest by value and essentially provide the bedrock for the global performance for the Scotch industry. Moreover, these markets mostly experience considerable premiumisation as consumers trade up for premium blends and single malts, driving further value increases. The USA and France are good examples of this. They are dominant globally in both value and volume terms. In 2015, the two markets accounted for over 31% of the total value and for one in four bottles of Scotch exported. Over the last decade, in both markets volume increases have been modest. But in France the market increased by 58% by value, and the US market by 87%, showing a marked degree of premiumisation. European Union (Main markets: EU28 Member States, excluding UK) EU Market 2015 Scotch Whisky Exports Value Change on Volume Change on Total 1,198m -3.6% 435m -2.6% bottles Of which: Blended 63.6% -7.1% 71.6% 0.2% Single Malt 30.5% 5.4% 10.1% -5.1% Bulk 5.9% -7.6% 18.4% -11.1% Share of total Scotch exports 31.1% -1.2% 37.6% 0.2% The EU is the major single region for Scotch Whisky exports. Although there are several European hubs where product is re-exported to markets outside the EU, the significance and range of markets within the EU remains marked. Within the EU, performance in recent s has largely reflected performance of the underlying economies, with southern European economies affected by the Euro crisis showing more challenging market trends, with Germany, Netherlands, and northern Europe do ing better. Poland has grown by a double-digit percentage every since it joined the EU and is now in the Top 20 markets. Latvia has a particular role as a hub for onward exports to Russia, so its direct export figures significantly exaggerate its market size. 9

10 Europe Ex-EU Europe (Ex-EU) 2015 Scotch Whisky Exports Value Change on Volume Change on Total 112.5m +2.1% 26.9 m +2.6% bottles Of which: Blended 79.5% +5.6% 88.4% +5.2% Single Malt 19.0% -6.1% 6.4% -8.5% Bulk 1.5% -37.8% 5.2% -19.0% Share of total Scotch exports 2.9% +4.6% 2.3% +5.6% This category is dominated by Russia and Turkey. Turkey is the biggest, currently around 60% of the total by volume. Despite the sometimes challenging regulatory environment, the Turkish market experienced strong growth in The Turkish authorities continued commitment to harmonise excise levels as between domestic and imported products is generating greater competitiveness and accessibility to Turkish consumers. Russia has b een affected by oil prices and by economic and political difficulties. Direct exports have fallen dramatically but the market remains promising and is largely supplied indirectly by hubs. Focus on: Germany Germany is an important trading partner for Scotch Whisky companies. Not only does it provide access to a large and knowledgeable population but it also represents a global hub for onward travel for a considerable proportion of Scotch. In 2015, the equivalent of 46 million bottles of Scotch was exported to Germany. Over two thirds (69%) was bottle blended Scotch Whisky, 17% was Single Malt and 14% was in bulk. However, the German domestic market is under half this size and considerably more premiumised. The remainder is re-exported. About a quarter goes beyond the EU to about a hundred further markets, though the dominant ones are near neighbours such as Turkey and Belarus. The remaining three-quarters goes to the rest of the EU, though some of this is probably ultimately exported beyond the EU too. Germany in 2015: 7th largest direct destination market for Scotch Whisky 6th most valuable destination with exports valued at 145 million 10

11 North America (Main markets: USA, Mexico, Canada) North America Markets 2015 Scotch Whisky Exports Value Change on Volume Change on Total 941m +3.0% 186m +7.8% bottles Of which: Blended 69.4% +4.6% 74.6% +11.5% Single Malt 28.9% +0.8% 14.0% +2.5% Bulk 1.8% -4.2% 11.4% -7.0% Share of total Scotch exports 24.4% +5.6% 16.1% +10.9% The North American markets (i.e. the three NAFTA members) provided strong support for Scotch Whisky exports in Total exports increased by an additional 1 million cases, or 7.8%, to 14.5 million cases. In volume terms, North American markets received 16% of all Scotch Whisky exports in This volume represented 941 million, more than 24% of the total value of Scotch Whisky exports, reinforcing the importance and dominance of the North American region for Scotch. Much of the reason why North America is a high-value region is Single Malt exports. Over 2 million cases (an increase of 2.5%) of Single Malt Scotch Whisky were exported to North American markets in 2015, approximately one quarter of global Single Malt exports. This is particularly the case in the US and Canadian markets. Mexico experienced significant growth in 2015, continuing the trend of recent s. In 2015, an additional 14 million bottles were exported resulting in Mexico receiving 57 million bottles of Scotch making it the fifth most important market in volume terms. Growth in the value of the market was also strong, an increase of 16% on in

12 Asia (Main markets: India, Singapore, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea) Asia 2015 Scotch Whisky Exports Value Change on Volume Change on Total 772.4m -3.5% 227m -5.1% bottles Of which: Blended 63.4% +0.5% 47.1% -8.2% Single Malt 24.9% -12.4% 10.6% -1.3% Bulk 11.8% -3.9% 42.3% -2.2% Share of total Scotch exports 20.0% -1.1% 19.6% -2.9% Asia is the second largest region in volume terms over 63 million LPA (equivalent to 17.7 million 9LCs) was exported in 2015, almost 20% of all Scotch Whisky exports. While 11% is exported in Single Malt and 47% is bottled blended product, Asia receives 42% of its Scotch Whisky in bulk form for either overseas bottling or use in other beverages. Much of this goes to India. Asia is the third most valuable region with total Scotch exports valued at 772 million in The value of the region benefits from a disproportionately high value for bottled blended Scotch Whisky. While only 13% of global bottled blended Scotch was exported to Asia, it accounted for 18% of the value, or 489 million in Despite many trade and market access barriers, the Indian market has grown significantly in recent s and the slight decline in direct exports in 2015 (5% by value, 0.3% by value) does not appear to reflect trends in the market itself. Much of the Indian market is driven by bulk exports, either for local bottling or for admix with local spirit, and premium exports remain very small. Scotch has about 1% of the Indian spirits market so even a small change in market share would constitute a big change in prospects. Singapore is a key hub for exports of Scotch Whisky. Purely by direct exports it appears to be the third biggest market by value, but local consumption is a tiny fraction of this, with the balance re-exported to major markets in the ASEAN region, China, and others. This means that direct export figures overstate the importance of Singapore and understate the importance of other regional markets, meaning that broader regional figures give a better sense of trends over time. The Chinese market returned to growth in 2015, increasing by 2% on. This is a significant step given the challenges which have hampered exports to China. Although direct shipments remaining below pre-2013 volumes, the real market size is larger, and the demographics and speed of social change occurring in China provide a solid foundation for exports going forward. Again, Scotch has under around 1% of the Chinese spirits market, so the prospects are significant. 12

13 Central and South America (Main markets: Brazil, Panama, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic) Central and South America 2015 Scotch Whisky Exports Value Change on Volume Change on Total 332.7m -8.0% 127m -10.5% bottles Of which: Blended 91.3% -8.8% 77.5% -12.9% Single Malt 1.9% +6.5% 0.6% -11.9% Bulk 6.9% +1.2% 21.9% -0.6% Share of total Scotch exports 8.6% -5.7% 11.0% -7.9% Central and South American markets accounted for 11% (10 million 9LCs) of all Scotch Whisky exports in 2015 and were valued at 333 million, almost 9% of the global valuation for Scotch. This is despite a on decline of 10.5% driven largely by the decline in bottled blended product exported to the region. This was primarily driven by a considerable (20%) contraction in the Brazilian market, which not only affected the region but also dragged the global figures for Scotch Whisky down by 0.8%. Almost 78% of Scotch Whisky exports to the region are in the form of bottled blended Scotch. Indeed only 1% of global exports of Single Malt (56,000 9LCs) are exported to the region, therefore the 11% contraction in 2015 amounts to a decline of fewer than 10,000 cases. Focus on: Brazil With a population of over 200 million, Brazil has been a strong-performing country for Scotch Whisky, growing by 55% in the last decade, and remains an important market internationally, accounting for 4% of all global Scotch exports. Indeed, North Eastern Brazil reportedly has the highest per capita consumption of Scotch Whisky globally! However, 2015 was a turbulent for Brazil economically and politically - as a result there were considerable impacts on shipments of Scotch. Brazil entered its deepest recession in recent history, one which is expected to continue throughout GDP per capita dropped in 2015 by 27% and economic growth, investment and production reported considerable on declines. Additionally, public debt and unemployment continued to increase while inflation reached double digits while Brazilian exports slumped. Overall, total imports to Brazil reduced by a quarter. It is therefore unsurprising that shipments of Scotch Whisky were impacted to a similar degree. While there have been many global economies which have faced economic and political headwinds in recent s, Brazil could be argued to be one of the most extreme in terms of the overall impact on global export figures from a Scotch Whisky perspective. The 20% on decline in Scotch shipments to Brazil accounted a third of the to tal decline in Scotch Whisky exports in 2015 and dampened overall global figures by almost 1%. Brazil in 2015: 8th most significant world market for Scotch Whisky with over 3.6 million cases. Exports valued at 56 million. 13

14 Middle East (Main markets: UAE, Lebanon, Israel, Qatar) Middle East 2015 Scotch Whisky Exports Value Change on Volume Change on Total 207.2m -1.2% 51m -5.4% bottles Of which: Blended 88.9% -3.7% 94.4% -6.0% Single Malt 10.6% +28.7% 4.4% 22.4% Bulk 0.5% -20.9% 1.2% -26.4% Share of total Scotch exports 5.4% +1.2% 4.4% -2.6% The Middle East accounted for 4.4% of all Scotch Whisky exports in 2015, just below 4 million 9LCs. Exports declined by 5% in volume terms due to lower bulk and blended deliveries although Single Malt exports increased by 22% to 172,000 9LCs with a valuation of 22 million. Africa (Main markets: South Africa, Angola, Morocco, Cameroon, Nigeria) Africa 2015 Scotch Whisky Exports Value Change on Volume Change on Total 193.7m -11.7% 72m -10.8% bottles Of which: Blended 84.5% -13.5% 84.3% -7.9% Single Malt 9.7% +7.0% 1.2% -4.9% Bulk 5.8% -10.3% 12.6% -27.7% Share of total Scotch exports 5.0% -9.5% 6.2% -8.2% The volume of Scotch Whisky exported to Africa in 2015 declined 11% to 20.3 million LPA, equivalent to 5.6 million 9LCs. More than 4.7 million 9LCs of bottled blended product was exported (84% of all exports to Africa). Blended Scotch Whisky exported to Africa accounted for 6% of all blended Scotch exported in Single Malt exports declined 5% in 2015 although the valuation of those exports increased on by 7% to 18.9 million. Despite Single Malt exports still being relatively small (only 3% of all exports to Africa were Single Malt in 2015), since 2011 volumes have grown by 31,000 cases (or 21%) from 146,000 cases to 177,000 in

15 Exports to the region are focussed on South Africa which received 70% of the volume and 63% of the 194 million value. While there are regional differences within the continent, many African economies are highly reliant on oil and commodities for economic growth. The collapse in oil prices combines with volatility in commodity prices resulted in a tightening of a region which had been forecast to grow considerably. While the short term impacts may continue into the medium term, the longer term fundamentals remain in place for many of the African economies to develop as population and productivity increase. Australasia (Main markets: Australia, New Zealand) Australasia 2015 Scotch Whisky Exports Value Change on Volume Change on Total 97.6m +5.2% 33m +8.4% bottles Of which: Blended 65.2% +2.4% 69.6% +12.4% Single Malt 18.9% +2.0% 6.1% +8.0% Bulk 16.0% +6.8% 24.3% -1.4% Share of total Scotch exports 2.5% +7.8% 2.9% +11.6% Exports increased 8% in 2015 to return to 2013 volumes. Australia dominates the region with over 90% of the exports. Growth was led through increased bottled exports Single Malt increased by 8% to 156,000 9LCs and Blended Scotch increased 12% to 1.8 million 9LCs. Bulk deliveries continued to decline in 2015 by 1.4% to 2.2 million LPA (equivalent to 623,000 cases of product). In value terms, the region grew by 5% on with growth in Single Malt valuations exceeding the volume growth recorded at 15% to reach 18.3 million. Blended exports grew at a more reserved pace, by 1.8%, to stand at 63.6 million in

16 EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY Volatility on the foreign exchange (FOREX) markets created uncertainty and impacted international trade in 2015 and also affected balance sheets. Continued difficulties, both economically and politically, in the Eurozone resulted in the relative strength for Sterling against the Euro. However, domestic uncertainty in the UK also provided foundation for a highly volatile FOREX market. Sterling ended 2015 some 7% higher against the Euro and 5% lower than the USD compared with the start of the. While there was also volatility between Sterling and the US Dollar, it was to a lesser extent and lower rates of volatility were experienced between GBP and the US Dollar as traders found security in the American currency. As a result, GBP ended 2015 some 5% lower in value compared with the USD at the end of 2014 to stand at $US1.48. SCOTCH WHISKY IMPACT ON THE UK TRADE BALANCE In 2015 the UK trade deficit widened by 7% to 37 billion due to an overall ( 1.9 billion) reduction in exports of goods and services and imports rising slightly ( 0.4 billion). Despite a decline in exports of Scotch Whisky in 2014 and 2015, the impact on the overall balance of trade in goods and services remains significant. Without the contribution of the Scotch Whisky industry the UK balance of trade would have been 10% worse, and the deficit would have exceeded 40 billion, in Year UK trade in goods UK trade in services UK trade balance Trade in Scotch Whisky Positive impact of Scotch Whisky on trade balance billion % % % Source: ONS, HMRC, SWA 16

17 ANNEX Scotch Whisky Association EXPORT REVIEW 2015 Total Scotch Whisky Exports by Volume (Litres of Pure Alcohol - LPA) and Category Total Volume LPA Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of World) EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 132,495, ,282, ,816, ,132, ,834,459 #N/A ASIA 76,666,463 72,996,101 66,885,104 67,056,990 63,654,973 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 48,566,887 48,698,767 50,242,875 48,363,451 52,115,294 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 45,407,648 44,869,554 44,804,019 39,715,835 35,544,962 #N/A AFRICA 19,057,777 21,255,357 23,248,240 22,713,779 20,252,487 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 12,778,425 11,918,786 12,868,936 14,976,159 14,174,307 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 8,321,443 8,330,519 9,327,531 8,520,307 9,235,830 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 6,905,534 6,095,295 6,128,353 6,106,119 6,653,246 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 3,763,561 3,146,679 3,877,037 1,242, ,625 #N/A Grand Total 353,963, ,593, ,198, ,827, ,354,183 #N/A Single Malt Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of Single Malt) EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 13,664,609 14,001,105 11,925,519 12,930,788 12,271,548 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 5,589,431 5,844,969 6,664,930 7,123,336 7,304,616 #N/A ASIA 6,569,781 5,264,851 5,526,577 6,824,873 6,733,199 #N/A AFRICA 525, , , , ,917 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 382, , , , ,428 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 487, , , , ,525 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 359, , , , ,065 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 381, , , , ,377 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 91,591 53,510 45,891 41,698 29,962 #N/A Grand Total 28,053,036 27,165,480 26,508,442 29,332,622 28,813,637 #N/A Bulk Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of Bulk) ASIA 24,913,177 23,700,272 23,087,310 27,539,268 26,924,212 #N/A EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 25,207,753 21,360,910 21,676,061 25,175,197 22,373,926 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 5,586,973 6,418,141 7,226,964 7,844,696 7,795,844 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 7,783,302 6,861,448 6,317,692 6,408,315 5,957,911 #N/A AFRICA 1,921,093 3,138,039 3,642,625 3,517,044 2,543,274 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 2,266,072 2,013,797 2,556,706 2,275,610 2,242,929 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 493, , , , ,952 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 254, , , , ,125 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 179, , , , ,546 #N/A Grand Total 68,605,458 64,470,326 65,382,035 73,474,409 68,399,719 #N/A Blend Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of Blended bottled) EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 93,623,545 82,920,228 93,215,213 87,026,191 87,188,985 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 35,194,154 35,992,350 37,260,253 34,831,800 38,852,767 #N/A ASIA 45,183,505 44,030,978 38,271,217 32,692,849 29,997,562 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 39,438,747 38,264,054 37,343,949 31,642,652 27,547,741 #N/A AFRICA 16,610,755 17,570,888 19,009,496 18,525,716 17,071,296 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 12,141,230 11,343,860 12,297,055 14,239,016 13,383,754 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 5,568,079 5,893,524 6,194,523 5,723,760 6,430,376 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 6,052,457 5,178,494 5,241,453 5,345,678 5,969,229 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 3,492,679 2,763,119 3,475, , ,117 #N/A Grand Total 257,305, ,957, ,308, ,020, ,140,827 #N/A

18 ANNEX Scotch Whisky Association EXPORT REVIEW 2015 Total Scotch Whisky Exports by Volume (9- Litre Cases) and Category Total Volume 9LC Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of World) EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 36,804,419 32,856,179 35,226,887 34,758,938 33,842,905 #N/A ASIA 21,296,240 20,276,695 18,579,196 18,626,942 17,681,937 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 13,490,802 13,527,435 13,956,354 13,434,292 14,476,471 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 12,613,236 12,463,765 12,445,561 11,032,176 9,873,601 #N/A AFRICA 5,293,827 5,904,266 6,457,844 6,309,383 5,625,691 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 3,549,563 3,310,774 3,574,704 4,160,044 3,937,308 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 2,311,512 2,314,033 2,590,981 2,366,752 2,565,508 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 1,918,204 1,693,138 1,702,320 1,696,144 1,848,124 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 1,045, ,078 1,076, , ,840 #N/A Grand Total 98,323,235 93,220,361 95,610,802 92,729,803 90,098,384 #N/A Single Malt Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of Single Malt) EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 3,795,725 3,889,196 3,312,644 3,591,886 3,408,763 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 1,552,620 1,623,603 1,851,369 1,978,704 2,029,060 #N/A ASIA 1,824,939 1,462,459 1,535,160 1,895,798 1,870,333 #N/A AFRICA 146, , , , ,199 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 106,297 96, , , ,897 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 135, , , , ,257 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 99, , , , ,018 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 106,091 52,044 64,752 63,469 55,938 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 25,442 14,864 12,748 11,583 8,323 #N/A Grand Total 7,792,510 7,545,967 7,363,456 8,147,951 8,003,788 #N/A Bulk Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of Bulk) ASIA 6,920,327 6,583,409 6,413,142 7,649,797 7,478,948 #N/A EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 7,002,154 5,933,586 6,021,128 6,993,110 6,214,979 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 1,551,937 1,782,817 2,007,490 2,179,082 2,165,512 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 2,162,028 1,905,958 1,754,914 1,780,088 1,654,975 #N/A AFRICA 533, ,678 1,011, , ,465 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 629, , , , ,036 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 137, ,403 88,363 77,102 64,987 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 70,702 63,506 55,743 63,482 46,701 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 49,803 91,681 98,859 57,828 44,318 #N/A Grand Total 19,057,072 17,908,424 18,161,676 20,409,558 18,999,922 #N/A Blend Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of Blended bottled) EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 26,006,540 23,033,397 25,893,115 24,173,942 24,219,163 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 9,776,154 9,997,875 10,350,070 9,675,500 10,792,435 #N/A ASIA 12,550,974 12,230,827 10,630,894 9,081,347 8,332,656 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 10,955,208 10,628,904 10,373,319 8,789,626 7,652,150 #N/A AFRICA 4,614,099 4,880,802 5,280,416 5,146,032 4,742,027 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 3,372,564 3,151,072 3,415,849 3,955,282 3,717,709 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 1,546,689 1,637,090 1,720,701 1,589,933 1,786,216 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 1,681,238 1,438,471 1,455,959 1,484,911 1,658,119 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 970, , , , ,199 #N/A Grand Total 71,473,653 67,765,971 70,085,670 64,172,294 63,094,674 #N/A

19 ANNEX Scotch Whisky Association EXPORT REVIEW 2015 Total Scotch Whisky Exports by Value ( GBP) and Category Total Value GBP Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of World) AFRICA 224,098, ,667, ,198, ,338, ,676,818 #N/A ASIA 911,872, ,418, ,620, ,622, ,386,515 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 78,471,748 87,045,600 92,451,929 92,719,463 97,559,266 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 489,279, ,376, ,153, ,399, ,667,493 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 46,820,981 36,483,816 38,826,012 14,754,642 9,776,958 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 77,164,062 86,313,046 93,572,349 95,439, ,696,130 #N/A EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 1,450,487,677 1,329,283,837 1,318,765,906 1,243,456,295 1,198,212,215 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 151,318, ,366, ,842, ,700, ,231,516 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 796,247, ,253, ,212, ,583, ,136,341 #N/A Grand Total 4,225,760,581 4,273,208,582 4,260,644,945 3,951,014,542 3,855,343,252 #N/A Single Malt Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of Single Malt) AFRICA 11,084,868 12,112,391 14,732,781 17,628,275 18,856,009 #N/A ASIA 182,348, ,181, ,473, ,146, ,015,136 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 12,416,249 10,625,704 14,532,143 15,888,077 18,394,148 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 8,266,208 4,614,338 5,368,356 5,789,607 6,167,008 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 3,309,090 1,827,773 2,775,555 2,036,423 1,929,563 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 14,087,257 18,461,958 22,836,932 20,688,965 19,420,813 #N/A EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 311,260, ,789, ,760, ,131, ,709,061 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 9,616,363 10,036,999 12,692,116 17,109,272 22,014,881 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 192,221, ,453, ,908, ,539, ,767,772 #N/A Grand Total 744,611, ,103, ,080, ,957, ,274,391 #N/A Bulk Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of Bulk) AFRICA 7,839,853 12,253,899 13,203,729 12,440,197 11,159,937 #N/A ASIA 83,881,086 74,990,421 76,185,706 94,714,294 91,029,625 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 8,637,713 18,515,037 16,699,167 14,392,355 15,604,727 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 20,025,785 22,044,342 19,466,381 22,619,930 22,884,960 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 1,737,751 2,455,819 1,961,918 1,674, ,870 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 1,757,456 1,469,462 1,320,746 1,094, ,796 #N/A EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 62,576,876 63,216,818 62,231,815 75,908,828 70,160,068 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 1,155,737 1,349,895 1,289,140 1,254, ,662 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 19,186,888 18,824,847 16,257,610 17,209,269 16,480,880 #N/A Grand Total 206,799, ,120, ,616, ,307, ,033,525 #N/A Blend Year Change YoY (%) Market Share (% of Blended bottled) AFRICA 205,174, ,300, ,262, ,269, ,660,872 #N/A ASIA 645,642, ,246, ,962, ,762, ,341,754 #N/A AUSTRALASIA 57,417,786 57,904,859 61,220,619 62,439,031 63,560,391 #N/A CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 460,987, ,717, ,319, ,990, ,615,525 #N/A EASTERN EUROPE 41,774,140 32,200,224 34,088,539 11,044,098 7,091,525 #N/A EUROPE - OTHER 61,319,349 66,381,626 69,414,671 73,656,046 82,309,521 #N/A EUROPEAN UNION (INTRASTAT) 1,076,650, ,277, ,773, ,415, ,343,086 #N/A MIDDLE EAST 140,546, ,979, ,861, ,337, ,224,973 #N/A NORTH AMERICA 584,838, ,975, ,045, ,834, ,887,689 #N/A Grand Total 3,274,350,243 3,279,984,486 3,231,948,303 2,794,749,302 2,709,035,336 #N/A

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